India and Canada are finally turning a new page in their diplomatic relationship — and much of the credit goes to three key factors: “Trudeau, Trump, and Tariffs”.
The reset came after Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent visit to Canada for the G7 summit, which opened the door for dialogue and rebuilding trust between the two nations. Former spokesperson of Ministry of External Affairs Vikas Swarup described the warming of ties as a result of the “Three Ts” — Trudeau, Trump, and Tariffs.
“The invitation from Mark Carney, the new Prime Minister of Canada, to Prime Minister Modi can be attributed to three factors — I call them the three Ts. The first ‘T’ stands for Trudeau, who was one of the main sources of animosity. We didn’t have a problem with Canada; we had a problem with Trudeau. He had a personal connection with Khalistan, and because of that, he came under pressure from them. He repeatedly interfered in India’s domestic affairs. India witnessed his support for the farmers’ protest — he said he stood in solidarity with them. If the farmers had been from Telangana, he wouldn’t have bothered. But because they were from Punjab, he got involved. The removal of Trudeau opened a window for a reset in India-Canada relations,” Vikas Swarup, who served as High Commissioner of India in Canada said.
Former Canada Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s political downfall had been long in the making. His approval ratings hit a low of 33% amid rising inflation, a worsening housing crisis, and soaring food prices that left Canadians struggling.
Over the years, he was also plagued by multiple controversies — from accepting unethical vacations to skipping Canada’s first National Day for Truth and Reconciliation for a surfing trip. Public outrage only grew after reports revealed that members of his family received large payments from a charity that was later awarded a government contract.
Then came his explosive allegations against India in the killing of a Khalistani separatist — widely seen as a political move to appease a shrinking vote bank. The backlash was swift. Even his own party members began questioning his leadership. The final blow came when Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland resigned, publicly expressing doubts about Justin Trudeau’s ability to handle a second Trump presidency.
“The second ‘T’ stands for Trump, who returned to the White House as U.S. President for a second term and called for Canada to become the 51st state of the United States. The third ‘T’ refers to the tariffs announced by Trump shortly after taking office — he imposed a 255% tariff on Canada,” Vikas Swarup said.
The return of US president Donald Trump for the second time at the White House is the major factor in resetting India-Canada ties. Donald Trump called for Canada to become a US state citing economic and defense concerns as justification. Trump said, “I called them Governor Trudeau because they should be the 51st state, really. It would make a great state. And the people of Canada like it. They pay lower taxes. They have virtually no military. They pay less than 1 percent. They’re about the lowest payer in NATO.”
Donald Trump’s return raised the heat. He slapped a 25% tariff threat on Canadian goods and even floated the idea of making Canada America’s “51st state.” Trudeau looked outmatched. His political survival instinct kicked in — but it was too late.
Tariffs: Economic Alarm Bells
Hours after Trump was sworn in, US President announced that he would implement additional 25 percent tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico starting on Feb. 1, accusing both countries of not doing enough to stop the flow of drugs and migrants into the United States.
With inflation already high and fears of recession looming, the economic shock pushed Trudeau’s government to the brink. His last-ditch attempt at a cabinet reshuffle failed to calm public anger. The demand for change was overwhelming.
Mark Carney Steps In
Canada’s new Prime Minister, Mark Carney, does not carry the baggage of Khalistani associations or vote bank. He is a respected economist and crisis manager. Though he had never run for elected office before, Carney’s leadership during the 2008 global financial crisis and Brexit negotiations made him a trusted figure.
“Unlike his predecessor Justin Trudeau, who courted Khalistani elements to secure a vote bank, Canada’s new Prime Minister Mark Carney comes without that baggage,” former diplomat said.
Carney won the Liberal Party leadership in early 2025 and was quickly elected Prime Minister. He has already signaled a new, pragmatic approach to foreign policy — with India at the top of the list.
New Delhi has responded positively, hopeful that the diplomatic strain under Trudeau will give way to more constructive engagement under Carney.
For the first time, the Canadian Security Intelligence Service has acknowledged that Khalistani extremist networks remain active in Canada and plans attacks against India.
Canada’s top intelligence agency, the Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS), in its latest annual report, has warned that Khalistani extremist networks remain active in Canada and continue to use the country as a launchpad for promoting, financing, and planning violent acts against India.
The report was released following Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Canada for the G7 Summit, where he sought to reset ties with Ottawa after two years of strained diplomatic relations between the two countries.
CSIS released its annual report on Wednesday, outlining some key concerns and threats to Canada’s national security.
This comes a day after Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Canadian counterpart Mark Carney “agreed to restore high commissioners in Delhi and Ottawa — a move that signals a potential shift in their strained relationship.
After two years of tensions, India and Canada have agreed to take calibrated steps to resume diplomatic ties and explore areas of cooperation.
In its annual national security threat assessment, CSIS stated: “Khalistani extremists continue to use Canada as a base for the promotion, fundraising, or planning of violence primarily in India.”
Under the section titled “Canada-Based Khalistani Extremism,” the report further notes: “Canadian-based Khalistani extremists use Canada as a base to support pro-Khalistani extremism as well as attack planning targeting India. As such, the activities of CBKEs constitute a threat to the security of Canada. However, at present, it is assessed that CBKEs do not have the intent to conduct an attack here in Canada.”
The report also highlighted that individuals and organised networks associated with the Khalistan movement continue to operate within Canadian borders.
Additionally, CSIS identified two key Sikh organisations — Babbar Khalsa International (BKI) and the International Sikh Youth Federation — as being associated with terrorism. Both remain listed as terrorist entities under the Criminal Code of Canada.
CSIS investigates activities that fall under the definition of threats to Canada’s national security, as outlined in the CSIS Act. These include espionage and sabotage, foreign interference, terrorism and violent extremism, and subversion.
Under the section on Risk Assessment Decisions for Violent Political Extremism (2009-02), the report referenced the 2003 charges related to the Air India bombing, which was motivated by Sikh nationalism. Members of Babbar Khalsa and the International Sikh Youth Federation were implicated in the bombing of Air India Flight 182, which was en route from Vancouver to India on June 23, 1985. The Boeing 747 was destroyed at an altitude of 9,500 meters, killing all 329 people on board, including 280 Canadian citizens. It remains the deadliest terrorist incident in Canadian history.
Relations between the two nations plunged to historic lows in 2023 during G20 summit in New Delhi after Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau accused Indian officials of being involved in the killing of Khalistani separatist Hardeep Singh Nijjar. The Trudeau government alleged that India orchestrated the killing, while India denied the claims and, in turn, accused Canada of failing to protect Indian diplomats from Khalistani threats.The diplomatic fallout led to visa suspensions, mutual expulsions of diplomats, and a freeze in trade negotiations.
This breakthrough came during prime Minister Narendra Modi’s discussions with Canada ‘s newly elected Prime Minister Mark Carney on the side-lines of the G7-outreach session in Kananaskis, where India was a special invitee.
Modi and Carney reaffirmed their commitment to shared democratic values and sovereignty, and agreed to restore normal diplomatic presence, including the early return of High Commissioners to each other’s capitals, as per the PMO statement.
Both sides underscored the need to resume negotiations on the Early Progress Trade Agreement (EPTA) and take it forward with the objective of concluding a broader Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA), as per a press note issued by the Prime Minister’s Office (PMO).
“The Prime Ministers agreed to take calibrated steps to restore stability to this very important relationship. The first of these steps agreed upon was to restore high commissioners to each other’s capitals at an early date,” Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri announced after the meeting.
Misri also informed that working level mechanisms in a host of areas related to trade, people to people contact, and connectivity” has also been resumed.
