TFIPOST हिन्दी
TFIPOST Global
Tfipost.com
Tfipost.com
No Result
View All Result
  • Premium
  • Politics
    • All
    • Analysis
    • Opinions
    • Trending
    Western Media’s Civilizational Insecurity Against India

    Western Media’s Civilizational Insecurity Against India Masked as Journalism

    Why Is Mamata Shielding Suspected Rohingyas?

    Mamata Defends Illegal Rohingyas Again, Questions BJP’s Crackdown on Infiltrators

    Israeli Businessman is Father, Russian Woman Faces Deportation

    Israeli Businessman Confirms Paternity, Fights Deportation of Daughters and Russian Partner Found in Karnataka Cave

    Pakistani Jasmeen Manzoor Shares Photos of Brutal Assault

    Pakistani Anchor Jasmeen Manzoor Shares Graphic Photos After Ex-Husband Beats Her Brutally

    • Analysis
    • Opinions
    • Trending
  • Economy
    • All
    • Business
    • Economy1
    • Finance
    AI Appreciation Day Celebrated Globally, Spotlight on Innovation and Ethical Progress

    AI Appreciation Day Celebrated Globally, Spotlight on Innovation and Ethical Progress

    India Achieves 50% Non-Fossil Fuel Power Capacity

    India Achieves 50 pc Non-Fossil Fuel Power Capacity, Five Years Ahead of Schedule

    Advantages of Using an EMI Calculator Before Applying for a Personal Loan

    Advantages of Using an EMI Calculator Before Applying for a Personal Loan

    WiseProfitWay.com reviews – Trading Times

    WiseProfitWay.com reviews – Trading Times

    • Business
    • Finance
  • Defense
    • All
    • Defence
    • Strategy
    • Weaponry
    India-U.S. Set to Strike Javelin Deal

    India Seeks Javelin Missile Co-Production Deal with U.S. Under ‘Make in India’ Push

    India Set to Test ET-LDHCM: Hypersonic Missile

    India Tests Hypersonic Missile Aimed at Covering All of Pakistan and Key Chinese Military Zones

    India Conducts Successful Trial of Astra Missile

    India Conducts Successful Trial of Astra Missile BVRAAM Featuring Indigenous RF Seeker

    India Must Stay Vigilant as Turkey-Pakistan Axis Grows

    Pakistan and Turkey Deepen Anti-India Axis Through Defence, Radicalization Nexus

    • Defence
    • Strategy
    • Weaponry
  • Geopolitics
    • All
    • Africa
    • Americas
    • Asia Pacific
    • Europe
    • South Asia
    • West Asia
    US-DEA Uncovers Canada–Pakistan–China Narco-Terror Nexus

    US-DEA Uncovers Canada–Pakistan–China Narco-Terror Nexus: A Global Hybrid Threat Emerges

    Pakistan Taliban’s Network in Bangladesh Busted

    Pakistan Taliban’s Terror Web Reaches Bangladesh: Two Arrested Over TTP Links

    Iran Travel Warning: Indian Nationals Asked to Reconsider Plans

    India Embassy Urges Caution: Avoid Non-Essential Travel to Iran Now

    Non-veg milk a red line in India-US trade talks. Here's why

    No Dairy Deal with US if Cows Are Fed Meat: India Stands Firm

    • Africa
    • Americas
    • Asia Pacific
    • Europe
    • South Asia
    • West Asia
  • Knowledge
    • All
    • Culture
    • Education
    • History
    • Indology
    NCERT Textbook Reveals Mughal Religious Intolerance

    Ruthless Babur, Violent Akbar, Destructive Aurangzeb: NCERT Textbook Reveals Mughal Religious Intolerance

    India Built Gardens Long Before Babur Dreamt of Charbagh

    Before the Mughals: India’s Civilisation Built Gardens Long Before Babur Dreamt of Charbaghs

    Revisiting the MANUSMRITI: Why India’s Youth Must Study This Ancient Epic

    Revisiting the MANUSMRITI: Why India’s Youth Must Study This Ancient Epic

    Echoes of the Cholas in Today’s Bharat

    Conqueror of the Seas: Rajendra Chola and the Rise of Naval Bharat

    • Culture
    • History
    • Indology
  • Law
  • Lounge
    • All
    • Books
    • Cinema
    • Entertainment
    • Food
    • Games
    • Health
    • Lifestyle
    • Satire
    • Sports
    • technology
    • Travel
    Ace Alliance: Accelerating Growth in the European iGaming Market

    Ace Alliance: Accelerating Growth in the European iGaming Market

    Addiction Recovery in India: Breaking Stigmas and Building Support Systems

    Addiction Recovery in India: Breaking Stigmas and Building Support Systems

    How Under Armour’s Women’s Sports Shoes Are Reinventing Women’s Fitness Experience

    How Under Armour’s Women’s Sports Shoes Are Reinventing Women’s Fitness Experience

    How Digital Tools are Transforming Indian Football

    How Digital Tools are Transforming Indian Football

    • Books
    • Cinema
    • Food
    • Health
    • Sports
    • technology
    • Travel
    • Satire
Tfipost.com
  • Premium
  • Politics
    • All
    • Analysis
    • Opinions
    • Trending
    Western Media’s Civilizational Insecurity Against India

    Western Media’s Civilizational Insecurity Against India Masked as Journalism

    Why Is Mamata Shielding Suspected Rohingyas?

    Mamata Defends Illegal Rohingyas Again, Questions BJP’s Crackdown on Infiltrators

    Israeli Businessman is Father, Russian Woman Faces Deportation

    Israeli Businessman Confirms Paternity, Fights Deportation of Daughters and Russian Partner Found in Karnataka Cave

    Pakistani Jasmeen Manzoor Shares Photos of Brutal Assault

    Pakistani Anchor Jasmeen Manzoor Shares Graphic Photos After Ex-Husband Beats Her Brutally

    • Analysis
    • Opinions
    • Trending
  • Economy
    • All
    • Business
    • Economy1
    • Finance
    AI Appreciation Day Celebrated Globally, Spotlight on Innovation and Ethical Progress

    AI Appreciation Day Celebrated Globally, Spotlight on Innovation and Ethical Progress

    India Achieves 50% Non-Fossil Fuel Power Capacity

    India Achieves 50 pc Non-Fossil Fuel Power Capacity, Five Years Ahead of Schedule

    Advantages of Using an EMI Calculator Before Applying for a Personal Loan

    Advantages of Using an EMI Calculator Before Applying for a Personal Loan

    WiseProfitWay.com reviews – Trading Times

    WiseProfitWay.com reviews – Trading Times

    • Business
    • Finance
  • Defense
    • All
    • Defence
    • Strategy
    • Weaponry
    India-U.S. Set to Strike Javelin Deal

    India Seeks Javelin Missile Co-Production Deal with U.S. Under ‘Make in India’ Push

    India Set to Test ET-LDHCM: Hypersonic Missile

    India Tests Hypersonic Missile Aimed at Covering All of Pakistan and Key Chinese Military Zones

    India Conducts Successful Trial of Astra Missile

    India Conducts Successful Trial of Astra Missile BVRAAM Featuring Indigenous RF Seeker

    India Must Stay Vigilant as Turkey-Pakistan Axis Grows

    Pakistan and Turkey Deepen Anti-India Axis Through Defence, Radicalization Nexus

    • Defence
    • Strategy
    • Weaponry
  • Geopolitics
    • All
    • Africa
    • Americas
    • Asia Pacific
    • Europe
    • South Asia
    • West Asia
    US-DEA Uncovers Canada–Pakistan–China Narco-Terror Nexus

    US-DEA Uncovers Canada–Pakistan–China Narco-Terror Nexus: A Global Hybrid Threat Emerges

    Pakistan Taliban’s Network in Bangladesh Busted

    Pakistan Taliban’s Terror Web Reaches Bangladesh: Two Arrested Over TTP Links

    Iran Travel Warning: Indian Nationals Asked to Reconsider Plans

    India Embassy Urges Caution: Avoid Non-Essential Travel to Iran Now

    Non-veg milk a red line in India-US trade talks. Here's why

    No Dairy Deal with US if Cows Are Fed Meat: India Stands Firm

    • Africa
    • Americas
    • Asia Pacific
    • Europe
    • South Asia
    • West Asia
  • Knowledge
    • All
    • Culture
    • Education
    • History
    • Indology
    NCERT Textbook Reveals Mughal Religious Intolerance

    Ruthless Babur, Violent Akbar, Destructive Aurangzeb: NCERT Textbook Reveals Mughal Religious Intolerance

    India Built Gardens Long Before Babur Dreamt of Charbagh

    Before the Mughals: India’s Civilisation Built Gardens Long Before Babur Dreamt of Charbaghs

    Revisiting the MANUSMRITI: Why India’s Youth Must Study This Ancient Epic

    Revisiting the MANUSMRITI: Why India’s Youth Must Study This Ancient Epic

    Echoes of the Cholas in Today’s Bharat

    Conqueror of the Seas: Rajendra Chola and the Rise of Naval Bharat

    • Culture
    • History
    • Indology
  • Law
  • Lounge
    • All
    • Books
    • Cinema
    • Entertainment
    • Food
    • Games
    • Health
    • Lifestyle
    • Satire
    • Sports
    • technology
    • Travel
    Ace Alliance: Accelerating Growth in the European iGaming Market

    Ace Alliance: Accelerating Growth in the European iGaming Market

    Addiction Recovery in India: Breaking Stigmas and Building Support Systems

    Addiction Recovery in India: Breaking Stigmas and Building Support Systems

    How Under Armour’s Women’s Sports Shoes Are Reinventing Women’s Fitness Experience

    How Under Armour’s Women’s Sports Shoes Are Reinventing Women’s Fitness Experience

    How Digital Tools are Transforming Indian Football

    How Digital Tools are Transforming Indian Football

    • Books
    • Cinema
    • Food
    • Health
    • Sports
    • technology
    • Travel
    • Satire
No Result
View All Result
Tfipost.com
Tfipost.com
No Result
View All Result
  • Premium
  • Politics
  • Economy
  • Defense
  • Geopolitics
  • Knowledge
  • Law
  • Lounge

Economist Surjit Bhalla exposes the biggest fault in Arvind Subramanian’s GDP estimation methodology

Amit Agrahari by Amit Agrahari
22 June 2019
in Analysis
Surjit bhalla, arvind subramanian
Share on FacebookShare on X

Almost three months back, in the month of March, Brookings Institution published a research paper which argued that China inflated growth figure for nine years.  The paper’s analysis covers the period of 2008 to 2016 and it was found that the Communist government inflated the growth figure by 2 percentage points. The study examined tax revenues to revise down the GDP growth of China. It argued that the actual size of Chinese economy is one seventh (almost 16 percent) smaller than what is being claimed by National Bureau of Statistics of China.

Almost three months after the experts questioned the growth of Chinese economy, former chief economic advisor of India Arvind Subramanian published a research paper in which he argued that India has over estimated its GDP by 2.5 percent between FY 12 to FY 17. He makes his calculations through simple cross-country statistical regression and argues that if “Motor vehicle sales are down, two-wheeler inventory are at the highest levels ever, no private investment and animal spirits have disappeared,” then it is obvious that the GDP growth is being over estimated.

RelatedPosts

India’s Economic Engine Accelerates: S&P Projects 6.5% GDP Growth for FY26

Crisil Forecasts Another Rate Cut in FY26, Pegs India’s GDP Growth at 6.5%

SBI report projects strong Q4 FY25 GDP growth for India at approximately 6.4-6.5%

Load More

In response to the claims of Arvind Subramanian, Surjit Bhalla, the globally renowned economist, has come out with an argument that if India’s GDP growth is overestimated, using the same set of data, we can conclude that the GDP of 43 countries is overestimated and 22 countries have underestimated the growth. Surjit Bhalla is the person who, along with Arvind Subramanian, led the crusade against high lending rates by RBI under Urjit Patel.

(PC: Indian Express)

Surjit Bhalla also accused Arvind Subramanian of omitting the research on other countries based on the same data.  “When I first read AS’s paper a week ago, I was struck by the absence of any discussion on the statistical possibility that his method could yield mis-estimation errors for other countries,” wrote Bhalla in an article in Indian Express, the same newspaper in which Subramanian published his study.

As per Bhalla’s findings, “Out of 89 countries, for 46 countries the AS country dummy was not significant. For 22 of these 46 countries, the individual country effect was negative — the measured GDP was less than predicted GDP, by an average 0.5 ppt; for the remaining 24 countries, measured GDP growth was above predicted growth by 0.4 ppt. The remaining 43 countries, with significant individual country effects, were almost equally divided between over-estimation (1.7 ppt) and under-estimation (1.8 ppt).”

Surjit Bhalla further argues, “Reported GDP growth for Germany in Period II was 1.3 per cent ; AS’s over-estimation number is 1.8 per cent; hence, excess GDP over reported GDP (ratio of 1.8 and 1.3) is a high 135 per cent, the highest in the world. Number 8 on the list is Bangladesh with an excess magnitude of 60 per cent; India is 16th (out of 21 countries) with an excess magnitude of 38 per cent (ratio of 2.5 and 6.7 per cent).”

In his article, Bhalla also points out that India’s growth story is waiting for some big and bold reforms on labor laws. The corporate tax rate and lending need to be brought down newly appointed finance minister need to be bold in next July 5 budget.

Arvind Subramanian’s findings have been criticized widely by other renowned economists. The Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council also came out with a comprehensive rebuttal of Subramanian’s findings recently.

Tags: arvind subramanianGDPIndian EconomySurjit Bhalla
Share201TweetSend
Previous Post

Left-liberal brigade is running a campaign to whitewash Sanjiv Bhatt’s crimes

Next Post

Vande Bharat Express running at full occupancy, to pay for itself in a year

Related Posts

Lalu Yadav Family Feud May Derail RJD as Discontent Grows Within
Analysis

Bihar Polls: Lalu Yadav’s Family Feud May Derail RJD’s Plans as Discontent Grows Within

15 July 2025

The Rashtriya Janata Dal, once a dominant force in Bihar politics, appears to be grappling with growing internal discord,...

India Must Stay Vigilant as Turkey-Pakistan Axis Grows
Analysis

Pakistan and Turkey Deepen Anti-India Axis Through Defence, Radicalization Nexus

14 July 2025

In a move that raises fresh concerns for India’s national security, Pakistan and Turkey (Türkiye) are forging deeper military,...

Hindu Faith Under Siege in Tamil Nadu
Analysis

Hindu Faith Under Siege: Mass Religious Conversions Rock Tamil Nadu

14 July 2025

Mass conversions in Tamil Nadu have reached an alarming new peak under the DMK government, with reported coercion of...

Load More

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

I agree to the Terms of use and Privacy Policy.
This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.

Currently Playing

The Butcher of Pahalgam: Sulaiman — Trained by ISI, Pakistan’s Commando-Turned-Terrorist

The Butcher of Pahalgam: Sulaiman — Trained by ISI, Pakistan’s Commando-Turned-Terrorist

00:04:13

Congress’s Rohith Vemula Bill: Caste Polarization Masquerading as Reform

00:07:33

Bhima Koregaon Won’t Be Repeated; Maharashtra’s Special Act to Wipe Out Urban Naxals.

00:06:06

Conqueror of the Seas: Rajendra Chola and the Rise of Naval Bharat

00:07:47

How UPI went global? Why Namibia Adopted It?

00:07:20
Facebook Twitter Instagram Youtube
tfipostTfipost.com
Right Wing | News Analysis | Indian Opinion
  • About us
  • Careers
  • Brand Partnerships
  • Terms of use
  • Privacy Policy
  • Sitemap
MASHABLE IS A GLOBAL, MULTI-PLATFORM MEDIA AND ENTERTAINMENT COMPANY. FOR MORE QUERIES AND NEWS, CONTACT US AT info@mashablepartners.com


©2025 TFI Media Private Limited

No Result
View All Result
  • Premium
  • Politics
    • Analysis
    • Opinions
    • Trending
  • Economy
    • Business
    • Finance
  • Defense
    • Defence
    • Strategy
    • Weaponry
  • Geopolitics
    • Africa
    • Americas
    • Asia Pacific
    • Europe
    • South Asia
    • West Asia
  • Knowledge
    • Culture
    • History
    • Indology
  • Law
  • Lounge
    • Books
    • Cinema
    • Food
    • Health
    • Sports
    • technology
    • Travel
    • Satire
TFIPOST हिन्दी
TFIPOST Global

©2025 TFI Media Private Limited