A few days ago, Bloomberg, the mouthpiece of American corporate and a pro-West publication, published a news report that India has overtaken UK to become the fifth largest economy of the world. Although, with the tone of the article, one could guess that Western elites were not happy with the fact that a “former British colony” is overtaking now not so mighty Britain, but they were forced to report the facts. However, India is all set to give another heartburn to the developed world.
The good news coming further is that India will soon overtake Germany and Japan, currently fourth and third largest economies respectively, to become the third largest economy of the world after the United States and China.
Research tells India’s growth story
As per a research published by SBI, “India should surpass Germany in 2027 and most likely Japan by 2029 at the current rate of growth. This is a remarkable achievement by any standards.” (sic)
Currently, the United States is the world’s largest economy with GDP of $23 trillion dollars followed by China with $19 trillion. Japan and Germany are around $5 and $4 trillion dollars respectively while India is at $3.5 trillion dollars.
The economic growth rate is coming down across the world due to wars, floods, pandemic, inflation, falling birth rates, population decline and so on. India is the only bright spot amid global turmoil. While the global economy posted negative growth rate in the last quarter, India posted GDP growth of 13.5%. The growth in developed economies, especially in Europe, UK, and Japan is in negative territory and their currency is also falling sharply.
Lower growth rate: A new normal
A comparatively lower growth rate is new normal and if India remains the only bright spot with demographic dividend, rule of law, attractive investment policies, and tech leadership, the global investors will flow towards the country pushing its growth trajectory even higher.
“Global tech major Apple’s recent decision to shift part production of its flagship iPhone 14 model for worldwide shipping from India, with a negligible time lag of a few weeks post its slated launch on September 7, bears testimony to such an optimism,”(sic) the SBI paper said.
Due to decline of currencies across the world as compared to dollar, their economy in comparison to global reserve currency has actually declined and only a few economies like Saudi Arabia, India are posting above 5% positive growth, which is being considered a new normal in post-pandemic world.
“Interestingly, even as estimates of India’s GDP growth rate for FY23 currently range from 6.7 per cent to 7.7 per cent, we firmly believe that it is immaterial. In a world that is ravaged by uncertainties, we believe 6-6.5 per cent growth is the new normal,”(sic) reads the SBI paper.
If India keeps growing at 7 to 7.5%, it will be an outlier amid global turmoil and the world’s attention will turn to India just like it was focused on China from 1990 to 2020.
India: The emerging economic powerhouse
For India to take over its former colonial master would be a matter of pride and joy. It should be noted here that India’s share in the world GDP was almost 25 percent when the British first came to India.
The loot and exploitation by the British was so devastating that the country’s share in the world GDP came down to almost 2 percent when they left the country in 1947. The combined effect of colonial loot and backwardness in industrialization diminished the stature of the country with respect to world GDP. India was known as the ‘crown jewel’ of the British Empire because it contributed the most for the expansion of the empire and wealth creation in Britain. India surpassed Britain just 75 years after getting independence, this will be a befitting reply to our former colonial masters.
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