I2U2 will make sense only when US gets a Republican President

There was a time when domestic political compulsions did not affect Foreign Policies. But, as George Soros is busy promoting immigration, the local demography is changing as well. The great replacement is now resulting in tampering of Foreign Policy in the USA. Apart from unity on weapons’ exports, both the Republicans and Democrats are standing on other ends of the spectrum. It has larger implications for I2U2.

I2U2 is composed of four nations namely Israel, India (I2), UAE, US (U2). The group is being termed as the QUAD of West Asia. It will increase military, economic and strategic cooperation between the members. The first I2U2 Summit has already taken place. However, there are a lot of issues that need to be sorted out. So, Let’s analyse the I2U2 by breaking them into separate factions.

India-Israel relationship needs no definition

Israel will always be indebted to India’s role in its existence. India is the only nation in the world where Jews were never persecuted. Moreover, the existence of modern day Israel may be credited to Western Countries, but Indian soldiers were the one who paved the way for free Geography in the Battle of Haifa.

Israel has been gracious enough to return the favour. Apart from Soviet Russia, Israel is the only country that has been supportive of India in weal and woe. The credit for Kargil’s victory is attributable to Israel. India is Israel’s 3rd largest trading partner in Asia.

Until recently, Israel was the second biggest supplier of Indian Defence imports. Israeli companies are working in India’s energy, renewable energy, telecom, real estate, water technologies and other key sectors. Simply put, stakes are too high for both countries to go against each-other’s interests.

UAE-Israel have become friends

There was a time when the Arab World and Israel were not on the same page. But, the emergence of Iran turned out to be a big incentive for both the Geographical entities to come together. For Israel, Iran emerged as an effective challenger to its military might, while for countries like UAE, Shia dominated Iran is always an existential threat.

As Donald Trump focussed on withdrawal of the troops, UAE realised that it needed a military partner in the region. Israel was the answer and Trump brokered Abraham Accords brought both these countries together. The concept of Arab NATO to counter Iran is alive only on the back of Israel’s military capability. Moreover, economic cooperation between both Israel and UAE is also set to rise further with the signing of FTA. For the both of them, I2U2 is just another platform to discuss various geopolitical imperatives.

India-UAE bond is getting stronger

For various interest groups, India and UAE should have been arch-nemesis. However, both countries have done well to coordinate on only profitable grounds and put bones of contentions aside. PM Modi specially set the tone with his tour in 2015. 2 years later, the Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi was the Chief Guest at India’s Republic Day parade.

The emphasis on increasing strategic bonds has helped UAE become one of the top 5 trading partners of India (FY 2021). UAE has invested more than $11.67 billion in India. It is also keen to become a key partner in the revival of Kashmir valley. In February this year, both countries signed the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA).

The importance of India for the UAE can be gauzed from the fact that when PM Modi landed at Abu Dhabi Airport in June this year, Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan and members of the Royal family broke protocol to welcome him.

The USA is the Achilles heel

While the permutations and combinations between aforementioned countries are well and good, the presence of the USA is a major challenge. The American attempt to monkey balance is falling flat on its face. This problem is persisting in its equations with all 3 countries of I2U2. The Biden administration has not been able to convey to all 3 countries that it is their friend. In fact, in a few instances, it has done the exact opposite.

For instance, it keeps telling India that Americans will always stand with India when it comes to their confrontation with China. However, on the other hand, it keeps pumping money into Pakistan, which is a close friend of China. The US wants to counter China’s rise through India while at the same time it wants to counter India’s rise through Pakistan. This is one of the reasons why it keeps trying to lecture India on minority rights and religious freedom.

Democrats have been hostile to Israel and the UAE

Similarly, Israel too has faced the brunt of US’ opportunistic stances in the last one and half decade or so. As soon as the US discovered its shell oil reserves, it felt that it didn’t need Israel to pressure the oil rich Arab world. The Obama-Netanyahu row on Palestine became a turning point in the decades-long relationship.

Obama even went as far as presenting an ultimatum to Netanyahu on the issue. Obama wanted a pre-1967 set up of the Geography. The tensions subsided for a bit during the Trump era as he recognised Jerusalem and Israel’s sovereignty over Golan Heights. However, as Democrats came to power the improvement died down. Anti-Israel lobby is dominating the Foreign Policy of the Biden administration.

While India and Israel had mixed experiences with the USA, the same can’t be claimed by the UAE. The UAE can claim that America has been hostile to it, especially in the recent past. The US has been critical of the human rights record of the UAE. It has accused UAE of censoring inhuman practices like torture, arbitrary detentions, abuses, threats of rape, and beatings.

Moreover, the Democrats have not been supportive of its Defence mechanism as well. While they agreed to sell the F-35 to the UAE, Democrats wanted the UAE to use them according to their commands. This forced the UAE to cancel the deal. Similarly, Biden administration also provided an indirect boost to Iran by removing the terrorist tags from Houthi rebels fighting against the UAE. On its part, UAE has galvanised OPEC to put timely brakes on supplying oil to the US and its allies.

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Republican revival is need of the hour

To put it simply, Democrats undid the development done by the Donald Trump administration. It is exactly here that the solution exists. Unlike Democrats, Republican politics is not dominated by various identity groups. They are quite sorted in that regard. They just want to preserve the American interest in their traditional bases.

Political parties in Israel and Republicans have similar ideological leaning. They are both conservatives by nature and its effects have been observed in past 4 US’ Presidential terms as well. Pushing globalism on the back burner and nationalism at the forefront helps both of them remain unified. Even Israel’s left-wing politics is a milder version of the US’ right wing.

Nationalism is the new buzzword

Similar patterns have been observed in Republicans’ relations with UAE and a resurgent India. Waves of nationalism are sweeping over every member of the I2U2. UAE needs it because it has to survive economic onslaught due to drying up of its oil revenues.

Israel has always been on the same track, while a civilisation state feeling proud of its own past is talk of the town in India. Similar needs are being felt in the USA. Nothing else other than nationalism justifies the rumours of FOX News Journalist Tucker Carlson running for President. Carlson is an astute American patriot.

Globalists need to make way

On the face of it, I2U2 looks like an offshoot of Shinzo Abe’s QUAD, albeit in the Middle East. The concept of pan-Arabism is dying its gradual death and a wave of nationalism is right up there. Both Israel and UAE need each-other. India on its part has been monkey-balancing its commitments in the region for decades

The USA also needs to have its presence in the region and there is no better way of doing it than aligning with Israel and Arab hegemons. However, the equations have changed and all 3 countries of I2U2 demand a strong, supportive and committed America. This is not possible until Globalist toadies Democrats are out of power.