In the first major signs of Coronavirus pandemic taking shape of a major public health crisis, the Indian Medical Association (IMA), Cochin branch has sounded warning bells for the state of Kerala. IMA has warned that around 65 lakh people in the state are at the risk of contracting the novel Wuhan virus. It has also stated that Kerala would at least need 2.35 lakh ICU beds to fight the novel virus.
The Indian Medical Association has also sought immediate judicial intervention in its letter to stop public gatherings and to enforce social distancing, in its letter to the Kerala High Court Chief Justice. The IMA has also cautioned that there is high risk of an infected person passing on the infection to others at two to four- a chain will set off, one person will infect two, two will infect four, four to eight and so on.
IMA Cochin took the case of Diamond Princess cruise ship to articulate its worries and stated that 700 out of 3700 people on the ship had got infected- attack rate of 19 per cent that could go on to infect 65 lakh people in Kerala, out of whom 15 per cent would require hospitalisation (approximately 9,40,000 people). Again, around 2,35,000 would require ICU beds. The health infrastructure of Kerala would clearly be overstretched aggravating the crisis further. The projected deaths for Kerala have been pegged at 2,27,000.
Meanwhile, the Pinarayi Vijayan-led Communist government in the southern state seems to be taking the COVID-19 outbreak rather casually with frequent cases of Coronavirus patients and suspects absconding isolation wards and quarantines.
In a shocking goof-up at the premier medical institute- SCTIMST (Sree Chitra Tirunal Institute for Medical Sciences and Technology), fourty three doctors have been kept under isolation after a doctor at the hospital who returned from Coronavirus-hit Spain recently tested positive for the Wuhan virus on March 14.
Even Minister of State for External Affairs V. Muraleedharan had visited the institute on Saturday for a high level meeting after the concerned officials at the institute assured that there was no Coronavirus threat at the institute. The minister home quarantined himself in the national capital. This is the first case of a minister getting indisposed and coming close to the Coronavirus threat. Fortunately, he tested negative for the novel virus later on.
Last Saturday I had visited Research Div. of a Medical Institute, whose Hospital later reported a #COVID19 +ve case. As a measure of abundant precaution I am in home quarantine since then.
Have tested negative for #COVID19.
No to panic! Yes to precaution!#IndiaFightsCorona
— V. Muraleedharan (@MOS_MEA) March 17, 2020
Earlier, a Kerala man returning from Saudi Arabia was quarantined. He left his home, met with an accident and was rushed to a hospital. However, doctors and surgery staff realised he is afflicted with the Coronavirus symptoms and now the entire surgery staff is at the risk of contracting the Wuhan virus.
Earlier, a group of foreign tourists was stopped from flying to Dubai from the Cochin airport. The group consisted of a Coronavirus-confirmed Britisher. The patient was lodged and asked to remain under observation at a state-owned resort in Kerala, but the group escaped isolation and boarded a Dubai flight and then all 270 passengers on board the flight had to be de-boarded and sent for testing.
Another such case happened in Kerala’s Alappuzha Medical College, as a US couple having symptoms of Coronavirus fled from the institute. Later, they were traced at the Kochi International Airport and were put under isolation.
Every single time, a patient escapes like this and comes into contact with the rest of the thickly populated Kerala, the state gets pushed further towards a huge crisis. Remember, things had gone pretty smoothly in South Korea till the 30th confirmed Coronavirus case, but when ‘Patient 31’ failed to isolate in the nick of time and visited crowded places in days prior to her diagnosis, Coronavirus took off like anything in South Korea. ‘Patient 31’ is believed to have triggered a mind-boggling 80 per cent of the total cases in South Korea.
Mindnumbing. Everything was smooth in South Korea for the first 30 #Coronavirus patients. Then the 31st patient decided not to employ social distancing. That ONE patient is now believed to have triggered EIGHTY PER CENT of the country’s infections. https://t.co/4rJY8aJfAQ
— Shiv Aroor (@ShivAroor) March 15, 2020
Every patient who escapes quarantine in Kerala can be the ‘patient 31’ of the state and once a patient starts spreading the disease, then we are really starting into the kind of crisis that has plagued China, Italy and South Korea.
In China too, stringent measures were not taken when there was still a small window of opportunity to plug the spread of the Wuhan virus. Mass scale travel had taken place during the Lunar New Year celebrations in the country on January 25. After this, the novel infection spread to every part of the country, ultimately taking almost every part of the entire globe in its grip.
Initially, China kept hiding the intensity of the Coronavirus Pandemic which was nothing less than a ticking time bomb for the human race and later started a major PR exercise to avoid getting blamed for its goof-up.
Sadly, this one does, it is definitely Chinese!
— RD (@DharRenuka) March 17, 2020
Kerala seems to be going down the same path. The state recorded the first cases of the novel Wuhan virus in India. The first child in India, a 3 year old, to get infected with the novel virus is also from Kerala and even the first Union Minister to face the Coronavirus scare in India got indisposed during a Kerala visit.
All this while the Communist regime in Kerala seems to be not at all bothered about cases of people absconding isolation wards and quarantines. The Pinarayi Vijayan-led Kerala government seems more interested in running a PR exercise to claim effective handling of the Wuhan virus.
What many are also not considering is a stark similarity in Kerala and Italy that puts the former at a huge risk. It is admitted that demographics have a major role to play in how severely COVID-19 affects a region/ country. In Italy, the demographics with 23.3 per cent of people above the age of 65 years is the reason behind unparalleled spread of the virus and a high Coronavirus death rate.
Kerala has the highest life expectancy at birth in India, which also creates a section of population that is extremely susceptible to Coronavirus- 12.6 per cent of the people are aged above 60 years in Kerala.
With IMA’s estimations coupled with Pinarayi Vijayan government’s callousness, the Coronavirus can easily take the shape of a near apocalypse. The aforementioned numbers are frightening and seem worse than even China and Italy.
