Bihar Assembly Elections 2015 beyond Nitish, Lalu and Modi

It is common knowledge that it is going to be a head on battle between the Nitish-Lalu socialist alliance and the Bhartiya Janata Party. Although Congress, NCP and SP have sworn allegiance to the NiLu alliance, it is certain that they are not going to make any difference. In fact Congress is going straight for a complete rout.

So the three primary players of Bihar Assembly Elections 2015 are Narendra Modi, the Prime Minister of India and the leading campaigner of the saffron front, Nitish Kumar, the current CM and the CM Candidate of the Samajwadi alliance and Lalu Prasad Yadav, Ex CM and RJD chief.

But apart from the glitz and glamour of the charismatic Prime Minister, and the flamboyant regional chieftains there are some politicians who are going to make a very strong impact in Bihar Assembly Elections 2015. And Bihar’s deep rooted casteist equations are going to play the most significant role.

Ram Vilas Paswan: The veteran politician has been active in Bihar Politics since the summer of 69. Since then, Ram Vilas Pawan has hopped on to different parties and alliances but his strategy has been constant all through. He wishes to be seen as the national leader of the Dalits. While the national dream is quite far away from reality, His status as the most popular Dalit leader of Bihar is unquestioned and Dalits constitute nearly 15 percent of Bihar’s population. He is an ace in BJP’s deck as far as Bihar Assembly Elections 2015 is concerned.

Upendra Kushwaha: Upendra Kushwaha was one of the closest associates of Bihar CM Nitish Kumar but Nitish Babu realized that the well-read and ever so articulate Kushwaha was a potential threat to him. This resulted into Kushwaha’s exit. In 2013 Kushwaha floated his own political outfit Rashtriya Lok Samata Party (RLSP). His party won all three seats, it contested on, in 2014 general elections. Upendra Kushwaha has a strong hold over OBC votes in Bihar. If we take Yadavs, EBCs and Nitish Kumar’s Kurmi vote base out of the equation, Upendra Kushwaha commands almost 9% votes. Another strong arrow in BJP’s quiver as far as Bihar Assembly Elections 2015 is concerned.

Rajesh Ranjan alias Pappu Yadav: Pappu Yadav isn’t exactly a pious name in India Polity. He was the chief muscleman for the RJD government in Bihar and a top favourite of Lalu Prasad Yadav. Pappu Yadav challenged nepotism in RJD and for this impudence, he was shown the doors. He floated his own outfit, Jan Adhikar Party this year. Pappu Yadav becomes an interesting figure as far as Bihar’s demographics and last 10 years of Nitish Kumar’s rule is concerned. Nitish Kumar is not a top favorite of Yadavs in Bihar. Many Yadavs hold a deep grudge against him and the notion that Nitish Kumar snatched plum posts from Yadavs and awarded them to his Kurmi loyalists is very strong. So Yadav votes are bound to be split. It is a no brainer that Majority of Yadavs will prefer to go with Lalu Prasad Yadav but if there is a second favourite for Yadavs in Bihar, it is Pappu Yadav. Pappu Yadav is not a BJP man but by splitting the Yadav votes, he is going to cause a huge dent in Lalu Yadav’s loyal vote base in Bihar Assembly Elections 2015.

Jitan Ram Manjhi: Media’s top favourite and controversy’s favourite child reinvented his gloomy political career by beating Nitish Kumar in his own game. Nitish Kumar mistook him for an aimless political gook, while he shocked everyone with his realpolitik skills. Jitan Ram Manjhi was dumped from the CM Position and JDU for speaking against Nitish Kumar. He was successful in planting the impression that Nitish Kumar is anti EBC or Mahadalits as they are called. Mahadalits constitute 10% of Bihar’s population, a sizeable population by any yardsticks. While Manjhi, cannot claim to be the sole commander of the Mahadalit Votes but he is going to eat up the biggest piece of the Mahadalit vote cake in Bihar Assembly Elections 2015.

With the 3 primary players and the aforementioned vote splitters, Bihar Assembly Elections 2015 is going to be a political magnum opus!