In the Bihar assembly election, Asaduddin Owaisi led AIMIM became the sole reason behind the loss of Tejashwi Yadav led Mahagathadhan (MGB) as it spoiled Congress and RJD candidate’s chances on more than 20 seats. The party itself won 5 seats. Given the fact, MGB’s tally was 110 and AIMIM got 5 seats, if the Owaisi led party had not spoiled the game for RJD on so many seats, 9th fail Tejashwi Yadav would have represented Bihar today.
After destroying the fate of MGB, Owaisi’s party is focusing on Mamata Banerjee led AITMC which will fight the West Bengal Assembly election next year. “You mean we should not fight elections. You (Congress) went and sat in Shiv Sena’s lap (in Maharashtra). If anyone asks why did you fight the elections… I will fight in West Bengal, Uttar Pradesh and will fight every election in the country…
“Do I need to ask anyone’s permission to fight the polls,” he said when asked whether the party would contest in any other state.
In Bihar, RJD was expected to perform excellently in the Mithilanchal region of the state- comprising Seemanchal, Kosi, and Mithila sub-region- which is dominated by the Muslims and Yadavs- the traditional vote bank of Congress and RJD.
Mahagathbandhan was expected to perform excellently on the 78 seats of the Mithilanchal region that went into the election in the third phase. However, the party could not win even half of the seats that were contested in the third phase and NDA maintained the lead in Kosi and Seemanchal sub-region. Of the 24 seats in the Seemanchal region, NDA won 9 seats while it expected to win none. Similarly in Kosi and Mithila sub-region, NDA candidates like Alok Ranjan, Sanjay Saraogi, Madan Sahni won due to division of votes among opposition parties.
Too much attention was given to LJP potential to damage JD U and not enough ground reports on AIMIM potential to do serious damage to MGB in last phase
— Saba Naqvi (@_sabanaqvi) November 10, 2020
Apart from NDA and Mahagathbandhan, Grand Democratic Secular Front, which comprised AIMIM, BSP, and RLSP; Progressive Democratic Alliance which comprised Social Democratic Party of India- the political wing of PFI- were fighting and many other smaller alliances and parties were fighting in the election with most of them focusing on the Seemanchal and Kosi region. The votes were divided among the smaller parties and alliances which led to the victory of BJP and JD(U) on many seats, and even AIMIM won on 5 seats.
Similarly, in West Bengal, there are many Muslim dominated constituencies where AIMIM is a threat to TMC’s future. In fact, not just TMC, AIMIM is a threat to every ‘secular’ party which relies on Muslim votes. Be it Congress across India, TMC in West Bengal, NCP in Maharashtra, YSRCP in Andhra Pradesh, or TRS in Telangana. For the secular parties, AIMIM is emerging as a bigger threat than BJP as Owaisi’s entry disturbs their political equation and significantly lowers the chances of victory.
West Bengal has three Muslim majority districts and many constituencies with the Muslim majority population, and the division of Muslim votes among TMC and AIMIM would result in BJP’s victory as seen in Bihar as well as in many other states. So, for Mamata Banerjee, Owaisi is a bigger threat than Modi.