Only a couple of months ago, the Congress organization in Gujarat seemed to be on the verge of collapse. Shankersinh Vaghela, a one time BJP rebel himself had unfurled the flag of revolt against Congress leadership. Congress MLAs had begun deserting the party in droves and that too at the time of crucial Rajya Sabha elections, where Gandhi loyalist, Ahmed Patel was eyeing a return to the Upper house. To stem the trickle which threatened to erupt into a flood, Congress had its MLAs whisked away to Karnataka. This, at a time, when Gujarat was grappling with the worst flooding in recent times. All in all, it seemed that Congress was doomed even before preparation work for elections in Gujarat could begin. It seemed that the BJP, which has been struggling to fill Modi’s oversized shoes, would romp back home, perhaps even attaining the mission 150 target set out by party President, Amit Shah. It seemed that the party would be able to shake off Anandiben’s lacklustre administration and make up for Vijay Rupani’s lack of charisma, mostly because the opposition Congress was in a worse mess than the ruling BJP. And then slowly, almost imperctibly the tide began to turn.
Amit Shah had bet all his cards on denying Ahmed Patel a Rajya Sabha seat. Shankersinh Vaghela’s rebellion and Congress MLAs’ desertion seemed to be timed at ensuring that Congress, which commanded the support of 57 MLAs, would not be able to gather the necessary 45 votes to see Ahmed Patel romp home safely. But as luck would have it, Ahmed Patel won. It took Ahmed Patel, long recognized as Congress’s Chanakya, all his cunning to ensure that he crossed the 45 vote threshold to return to Rajya Sabha. While Amit Shah’s strategy had surely given the Congress a hell of a scare, it was Ahmed Patel who ultimately trounced Amit Shah in the battle of strategies as he took his seat in the Rajya Sabha, alongside first time Rajya Sabha MP, Amit Shah.
The intensely personal and no holds barred battle between Amit Shah and Ahmed Patel, in no small part, reinvigorated the Congress in Gujarat.
Political observers believe that BJP is the default choice of voters in Gujarat, which is why the party has been so successful in the state. In order to counter the BJP, the Congress has more or less adopted the same outward manifestations, viz. right wing activism, soft hindutva etc. as the BJP. In the process, the party had been reduced to, in some ways, a duplicate of the BJP. The voters, in their immense wisdom, preferred to vote for the original, rather than the duplicate, thus giving BJP an unrestrained 20 years long run. Evidently, Narendra Modi’s charisma and effective administration had an equally large role to play in this. It seems now that the Congress has realized this folly. For one, Many Congressmen were happy to see Shankersinh Vaghela leave the party. Under his leadership, Congress had been relegated to the role of Gujarat’s permanent opposition party. It now seems that Ahmed Patel is himself deeply involved in plans to see the return of Congress to power in Gujarat.
Hardik Patel, Alpesh Thakore and Jignesh Mevani have been the face of protests in Gujarat ever since Narendra Modi moved to Delhi. While Patel leads the Patidar community in their demands for reservations, Thakore is demanding rights for OBCs and Mevani, the face of protests by Dalits at Una, demands safeguards for the community. The Congress seems to have built a formal/informal understanding with the three leaders with the sole objective of displacing BJP from power in Gujarat. While Alpesh Thakore, whose father was a Congress leader himself, has agreed to join the party formally, Mevani is also believed to have been roped in to contest elections under Congress’ symbol. Hardik Patel, while claiming nothing but disdain for the electoral process, is also actively campaigning against the BJP to Congress’s advantage. The addition of these ‘Young turks’, will dramatically boost Congress’s prospects in the state. While this ‘rainbow coalition’, against the BJP might be electorally successful, it possesses the seeds of destruction within itself. The demands of Patidars, OBCs and Dalits are mutually antagonistic and impossible to meet. But this perhaps is a challenge for later, and for now Ahmed Patel will be content to see a Congress CM seated in Gandhinagar.
The BJP on its part has realized that for all its talk about Mission 150, this election will be as tough as it gets for the BJP. Not only is the party battling a 20 year long period of anti incumbency, it doesn’t have a local face who can inspire its voters to come out and vote for it. Initiatives such as Demonetization and introduction of the GST have not exactly endeared Gujarat’s Business community to the BJP. Slogans such as ‘Hamari Bhool, Kamal ka Phool’ are being heard in parts of the state. It was not for no reason that the GST rate on ‘Khakhra’ was revised recently by the GST council. The party has roped in PM Narendra Modi & Amit Shah for roadshows and rallies. In one such rally, Modi was seen exhorting voters to vote for ‘Gujarati Asmita’. In another, he was seen addressing the rally in Gujarati, something he had shunned ever since he had moved to Delhi. The deployment of leaders such as Yogi Adityanath show that the party isn’t taking any chances. Recently, even Sushma Swaraj was seen participating in one of the rallies organized for Gujarati women, something which has not happened in the recent past. It is clear that the BJP is in no mood to take the Gujarat elections for granted.
http://indiatoday.intoday.in/…/yogi-adityana…/1/1073131.html
https://www.ndtv.com/…/congress-scores-3-huge-points-in-its…
If the Congress were to wrest Gujarat from the BJP, it would mark the onward march of the party to power in Delhi in 2019. For the BJP to retain Gujarat and attain or even come close to Mission 150, against overwhelming odds would re-establish Amit Shah as the Supreme electoral strategist in the country and cement Modi’s popularity.
