By late 2025, Bangladesh is confronting one of the gravest internal crises since its independence.
The interim administration led by Muhammad Yunus, installed in August 2024 amid political tumult in Bangladesh, has overseen a period marked by institutional paralysis, a surge in violence, economic contraction and a dramatic erosion of state credibility.
Indicators that once suggested resilience now point in the opposite direction: Bangladesh’s fragility score climbed to 85.9 in 2024—far higher than the global average of 64.56—reflecting the scale and speed of the country’s deterioration.
What was initially framed as a technocratic caretaker arrangement has evolved into a regime unable to stem the collapse of public order, manage a slowing economy, or uphold basic legal protections. Instead, arbitrary policing, collective criminal charges, shrinking judicial independence and mounting political reprisals have become defining features of the Yunus period.
The cumulative impact is stark. A surge in murders, widespread mob violence, and a wave of enforced disappearances have created a pervasive climate of fear.
Simultaneously, inflation has eroded household purchasing power, factories have shut down and unemployment—particularly among the young—has soared. Social safety nets are failing as poverty deepens, while political violence against Awami League members and anti-Yunus activists has intensified.
Together, these developments depict a country edging toward systemic fragility, driven not only by governance failures but also by the deliberate dismantling of institutional checks and balances.
Law and Order Breakdown
The most immediate and visible collapse has occurred in internal security. Since Yunus assumed charge, Bangladesh has experienced a sharp rise in violent crime and near-complete erosion of law enforcement capacity. Reported murders rose to 1,930 within a year—an increase of 25.9% from 1,533 the previous year. June 2025 alone witnessed 343 killings, an extraordinary figure even by Bangladesh’s turbulent political standards.
Much of this deterioration is linked to political interference in policing. Experienced officers were transferred without cause, key leadership posts remain vacant, and decision-making is heavily centralised within a small circle of advisers. Rank-and-file law enforcement personnel are reportedly demoralised, facing pressure from competing political factions while lacking clear operational guidance.
Mob violence and extrajudicial killings have surged alongside. “Crossfire” incidents—long criticised by rights organisations—have reappeared with intensity, often targeting opposition activists. Armed vigilante groups, emboldened by the vacuum of authority, now operate openly in certain districts. Enforced disappearances remain unresolved, with victims frequently belonging to ethnic minorities or anti-Yunus political networks.
The broader consequence is a society where personal safety is increasingly uncertain. Citizens hesitate to report crimes due to fear of reprisals or perceived political bias within the police. Localised conflict in areas such as Chittagong Hill Tracts and Cox’s Bazar has escalated, further exposing the state’s diminishing monopoly on force.
Governance Erosion and Judicial Compromise
The collapse of public order is matched by a profound deterioration in the functioning of the judiciary. Courts, historically subject to political influence, have become more openly tools of repression under Yunus. Judicial independence has weakened to a point where bail applications are routinely dismissed, preventive detentions are extended without oversight, and politically convenient verdicts appear common.
The scale of mass criminal prosecution is unprecedented. More than 516,000 individuals have been implicated in 1,567 collective cases, yet only 79,491 are named. This allows sweeping arrests of unnamed persons, enabling authorities to target political opponents, protestors and dissenters indiscriminately. Nearly 400 former ministers and officials from the previous Awami League government now face charges widely viewed as politically engineered.
Arbitrary detentions have surged. Thousands remain in prison without trial, often under harsh laws designed for counterterrorism or emergency situations. Security agencies operate with extraordinary impunity; allegations of custodial torture, forced confessions and disappearances are rarely investigated. Rights organisations note that not a single major case of extrajudicial killing under the interim government has resulted in prosecution.
This systematic dismantling of accountability has left the judiciary hollowed out. For ordinary citizens, accessing justice has become increasingly difficult, while for political opponents, courts have turned into instruments of coercion. The institutional decay has also alarmed the international community, leading to warnings from rights bodies and concerns from development partners about democratic backsliding.
Economic Decline and Human Impact
The political crisis has intersected with a severe economic downturn. Bangladesh, which posted growth rates of over 7% in 2023, has seen GDP expansion slump to about 3.3% in 2025—the slowest since the Covid-19 pandemic. The decline is driven by weak exports, stalled investment and a liquidity crunch affecting banks and manufacturers alike.
Inflation has climbed above 12%, more than doubling from 5.6% the previous year. This has eroded household incomes, worsened food insecurity and forced millions below the poverty line. More than 16 million people now face acute food shortages, according to independent assessments, pressing the government to expand social welfare programs despite a shrinking fiscal space.
Youth unemployment is a growing concern. More than 30% of educated graduates are jobless, contributing to rising frustration and accelerating brain drain. The Ready-Made Garments (RMG) sector—Bangladesh’s largest employer and export driver—has been severely hit: over 150,000 workers have been laid off as orders decline and factories shut down.
Construction, another labour-intensive industry, has stalled as infrastructure projects are delayed or abandoned. Foreign investors cite political instability, uncertain policy direction and the absence of electoral legitimacy as major deterrents. These economic shocks feed into social discontent, creating a feedback loop of unrest and uncertainty.
For households, the combination of job losses, inflation and weakened social protections has produced a humanitarian strain unmatched in recent decades. The government’s capacity to respond is limited: external debt obligations are rising, remittances have plateaued and donor confidence is weak.
Escalating Violence Against Anti-Yunus Activists
Political violence has become one of the darkest features of Bangladesh’s present trajectory. A report by the Rights and Risks Analysis Group documents 123 killings of Awami League members and affiliates between August 2024 and April 2025. The brutality is striking: 41 victims were hacked to death in what the report describes as “Taliban-style” attacks, including throat-slitting. Twenty-one individuals died in custody under unexplained circumstances.
One of the most disturbing cases involved the killing of Mohammed Masud Rana and a 12-year-old boy, targeted for expressing pro-Awami League views online. Such incidents reveal a political environment where expression—physical or digital—can carry fatal consequences.
The report attributes command responsibility to Yunus and senior officials, noting that the rhetoric of the interim leadership has fostered an atmosphere conducive to reprisals against political rivals. Security forces, instead of curbing such violence, are frequently accused of enabling or ignoring it. The near-total impunity for perpetrators has deepened fears among activists, journalists and local leaders.
This wave of targeted killings and disappearances not only undermines political competition but also accelerates the collapse of social trust. The longer such violence persists, the harder it becomes to restore a functioning democratic order.
Dhaka in Freefall
Bangladesh’s situation in 2025 reflects a convergence of crises: weakening institutions, collapsing law enforcement, shrinking judicial independence, economic contraction, rising poverty and intensifying political violence. The interim government led by Muhammad Yunus has presided over a period of profound instability, marked by decisions that have eroded governance rather than stabilised it.
The country is now confronted with a set of structural risks that, if left unaddressed, could push it further toward long-term fragility. Rebuilding public trust will require restoring the rule of law, re-establishing judicial independence, addressing the economic crisis with credibility and creating political conditions conducive to inclusive elections.
Without decisive reforms, Bangladesh risks deepening its slide toward a crisis state—one where institutions are overwhelmed, violence becomes entrenched, and the social and economic foundations of stability continue to unravel.
Aritra Banerjee is a columnist specialising in Defence, Strategic Affairs, and Indo-Pacific geopolitics. He is the co-author of The Indian Navy @75: Reminiscing the Voyage. Having spent his formative years in the United States before returning to India, he brings a global outlook and first-hand insight to his reporting from foreign assignments and internal security environments such as Kashmir. He holds a Master’s in International Relations, Security & Strategy from O.P. Jindal Global University, a Bachelor’s in Mass Media from the University of Mumbai, and Professional Education in Strategic Communications from King’s College London (King’s Institute for Applied Security Studies).
