Kabul was rocked by twin explosions on Thursday night, followed by intense gunfire and the unmistakable roar of a jet slicing through Afghan airspace. According to intelligence sources, the strike was a precision aerial assault targeting Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) chief Noor Wali Mehsud, who was believed to be operating out of a TTP–al-Qaeda safehouse in eastern Kabul. The compound, sources say, was hit with surgical accuracy though Mehsud later claimed in an audio message that he had survived and had already relocated to Pakistan. His son, however, was reportedly killed in the attack.
The timing of this strike coming just 48 hours after Pakistan’s Defence Minister Khawaja Asif publicly accused Afghanistan of sheltering Pakistani militants suggests a calculated act of retaliation. This incident is being viewed by defence analysts as one of the most provocative military moves since the Taliban’s takeover in 2021. For the first time, Pakistan appears to have authorized or supported a direct airstrike inside Kabul a move that not only threatens to unravel fragile Pakistan-Afghanistan relations but also coincides with a dramatic diplomatic development: Afghan Taliban Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi’s official visit to India.
This visit, once unimaginable, underscores how the geopolitical chessboard of South Asia is shifting rapidly. As Muttaqi lands in New Delhi to discuss trade, connectivity, and energy cooperation, Pakistan finds itself increasingly isolated watching nervously as its once-loyal Taliban allies warm up to its arch-rival India.
The Airstrike That Shook Kabul Pakistan’s Dangerous Gamble
Eyewitnesses in Kabul described the late-night scene as terrifying: two massive explosions, gunfire echoing through the streets, and what sounded like a fighter aircraft streaking across the city. Within hours, local sources confirmed that the target was a compound sheltering top TTP figures. Given the Taliban’s minimal air defence capabilities and the absence of the former Afghan Air Force, it is widely suspected that Pakistani-origin aircraft carried out the mission, possibly with technical and surveillance support from an external ally.
The symbolism is significant Pakistan, long accused of providing safe haven to Taliban leaders, has now turned its firepower on Afghan soil. The strike has enraged Taliban officials in Kabul, who are calling it a “flagrant violation of Afghan sovereignty.” In an official statement, Taliban spokesperson Zabiullah Mujahid said, “No foreign country has the right to conduct operations within our borders. Afghanistan will not tolerate aggression under any pretext.”
The cross-border strike may mark the beginning of a dangerous new phase in Pakistan-Afghanistan relations one where Islamabad, under domestic pressure from escalating terror attacks by TTP factions, feels compelled to project military dominance even at the cost of regional instability.
Muttaqi’s Visit to India: A Diplomatic Breakthrough That Rewrites the Rules
While bombs fell in Kabul, a quieter but equally seismic event unfolded in New Delhi. Afghan Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi landed in India on an eight-day visit the highest-level Taliban delegation to India since the group seized power in 2021. His arrival, under a UN-approved travel waiver, was once considered diplomatically impossible.
Muttaqi is set to hold talks with External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar and National Security Adviser Ajit Doval, focusing on trade, connectivity, and humanitarian cooperation. India, which had supported the former Western-backed Afghan government, has steadily re-engaged with Kabul under the Taliban to secure its strategic interests particularly access to Central Asia’s oil, gas, and mineral wealth through the Chabahar route that bypasses Pakistan.
For Pakistan’s military establishment, this development is alarming. For decades, Rawalpindi’s generals have treated Afghanistan as their “strategic backyard,” using the Taliban as leverage against both India and Western influence. Muttaqi’s visit, however, signals that the Taliban are no longer content playing second fiddle to Pakistan’s regional agenda.
This visit represents a serious setback for Pakistan. The Taliban are recalibrating their foreign policy to reduce overdependence on Islamabad and pursue an autonomous, multi-vector relationship that includes India, Russia, and Iran.
Why the Taliban’s Tilt Toward India Hurts Pakistan’s Deep State
Pakistan’s unease stems from multiple fronts. First, India’s outreach to the Taliban undermines Islamabad’s historic monopoly over Kabul’s political direction. Second, the Taliban’s growing irritation with Pakistan’s interference particularly over the issue of TTP safe havens has created an unexpected alignment of interests between New Delhi and Kabul.
Pakistan’s defence establishment has long believed it could manipulate the Taliban through religious and tribal ties. However, since taking power in 2021, the Taliban have been frustrated by Pakistan’s attempts to dictate policy. Frequent border skirmishes, cross-border shelling, and Pakistan’s forced deportation of Afghan refugees have turned relations hostile.
Meanwhile, India’s approach pragmatic, trade-oriented, and devoid of overt political conditions appeals to the Taliban’s leadership, which is eager for international legitimacy and economic relief. Through quiet diplomacy, India has sent humanitarian aid, reopened its Kabul mission, and even allowed the Taliban to appoint an envoy in Delhi moves that strengthen trust.
For Pakistan’s military, this evolving equation is disastrous. Islamabad now risks losing not only its influence in Kabul but also its long-held strategic depth the very concept that shaped its regional military doctrine for decades.
Chabahar, Central Asia, and the Energy Chessboard
At the core of India’s renewed engagement with Afghanistan lies a simple but powerful objective access. The Chabahar Port in Iran, developed with Indian support, offers a direct route for India to trade with Afghanistan and Central Asia without passing through Pakistan. This route not only bypasses Islamabad but also counters China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and its flagship project, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).
During Muttaqi’s visit, discussions are expected to include Chabahar’s logistical expansion, rare-earth mineral cooperation, and the establishment of overland trade corridors linking India to Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan via Afghanistan.
India’s interest in Afghanistan’s mineral wealth, particularly lithium and copper vital for renewable energy technologies is another major driver. With global powers competing for supply chain security, New Delhi sees an opportunity to secure long-term access to critical resources, while the Taliban view India as a partner capable of delivering economic projects without hidden military agendas.
For Pakistan, this growing India-Afghanistan economic nexus represents a direct threat to its CPEC monopoly and weakens its leverage over regional trade. The fear in Islamabad is that the Taliban’s collaboration with India will not only open Afghanistan’s doors to Indian influence but will also embolden anti-Pakistan sentiments within the TTP ranks.
The Fallout: TTP Split and Pakistan’s Mounting Internal Crisis
The Kabul airstrike’s target TTP chief Noor Wali Mehsud symbolizes Pakistan’s deepening internal crisis. For years, Pakistan’s intelligence apparatus tolerated or even sheltered TTP elements as strategic assets. Now, the monster has turned against its creator. Mehsud’s faction has carried out dozens of deadly attacks on Pakistani forces, particularly in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan.
By allegedly striking Mehsud’s compound in Kabul, Pakistan may have succeeded militarily but lost politically. The Taliban government is furious, viewing the attack as a betrayal of sovereignty. The incident could push Kabul closer to India, precisely at a time when Islamabad cannot afford diplomatic isolation.
Within the TTP, the attack has already sparked divisions between the pro-Kabul and pro-Rawalpindi factions. Security analysts warn that internal feuds could spill over into Afghanistan’s eastern provinces, destabilizing the border region. Pakistan now faces the twin threat of Taliban hostility and TTP retaliation a volatile combination that undermines its already fragile internal security.
India’s Diplomatic Gamble, Pakistan’s Strategic Nightmare
The cross-border airstrike in Kabul and Muttaqi’s unprecedented visit to New Delhi mark two sides of the same geopolitical coin the unraveling of Pakistan’s decades-long control over Afghanistan and the rise of India as a pragmatic regional player.
For India, engaging the Taliban is not about endorsement but about safeguarding national interests ensuring Afghan soil is not used for terrorism, securing access to Central Asian energy routes, and countering Chinese influence through economic diplomacy. For the Taliban, India represents an opportunity for legitimacy and development without subjugation to Pakistan’s strategic manipulations.
Pakistan, however, finds itself cornered battling insurgents at home, alienating its former allies in Kabul, and watching India expand influence in its once-exclusive backyard. The Kabul airstrike may have targeted a terrorist, but its real casualty could be Pakistan’s regional standing.
As the dust settles over Kabul’s skies and Muttaqi’s delegation continues talks in Delhi, one truth becomes increasingly clear the South Asian power balance is shifting irreversibly. India’s door to Central Asia is opening wider, Pakistan’s leverage over the Taliban is slipping fast, and the region’s next chapter will be defined not by ideology, but by strategic pragmatism and realpolitik.
