Pakistan is grappling with worsening water crisis as river flows have dropped to alarming levels across all three major regions — Punjab, Sindh, and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa — threatening both agricultural output and electricity generation during the critical Kharif season ( from June to September).
Fresh data from the Indus River System Authority (IRSA) shows a significant decline in river flows compared to the same time last year:Pakistan’s 3 Regions See 20% Drop In River Water Flow As India Keeps IWT On Hold | Exclusive
In Punjab, river discharge on June 20 measured 110,500 cusecs, reflecting a 20% decrease from last year’s 130,800 cusecs.
Sindh recorded 133,000 cusecs, down from 170,000 cusecs, a 22% drop.
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa saw a smaller decline, with water flows falling to 2,600 cusecs from 2,900 cusecs a year earlier.
The steep decline in river water flows are part of a broader trend of reduced water availability across the Indus basin, posing a major threat to Pakistan’s agricultural and energy sectors.
The timing of the shortfall is especially critical. With the summer monsoon yet to arrive, Pakistan’s late Kharif crops—including rice, sugarcane, and cotton—are now at high risk. IRSA had previously projected a 21% water shortfall during this season, and current conditions suggest that the shortfall is approaching that forecasted level.
Farmers in Sindh and Punjab are already reporting difficulties in irrigating their fields, with some warning of possible crop failures if water supplies are not restored soon.
Rising Tensions with India Over Water
Pakistan is experiencing water troubles after India held the Indus Water treaty in Abeyance. India, in April, decided to suspend aspects of the Indus Waters Treaty, an agreement dating back to 1960 that governs water sharing between the two countries. Since that move, Pakistan’s dam outflows have declined by around 15% compared to the same period last year, raising concerns that India may be curtailing flows from the western rivers.
Pakistan has formally raised its concerns with India through four diplomatic notes, urging a reversal of New Delhi’s decision to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty. The suspension came in the wake of the Pahalgam terror attack, which India blamed on Pakistan-based elements. In response, India asserted that the treaty would remain in abeyance, reiterating its hardened stance that “water and blood cannot flow together.”
Critical Situation at Tarbela Dam
Another troubling indicator of the crisis is the declining water level at Tarbela Dam, one of Pakistan’s largest reservoirs, situated on the Indus River in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. As of June 20, the reservoir’s water level stands at 1,450.85 feet, alarmingly close to its dead storage level of 1,402 feet, and nearly 100 feet below its full capacity of 1,550 feet, as per Express Tribune of Pakistan.
The ongoing dry spell has sharply reduced inflows, which currently measure 177,400 cusecs, while outflows remain at 151,800 cusecs. Despite all 17 power generation units at the dam being operational, total electricity output has dropped to just 1,413 megawatts, well below the dam’s 4,888 megawatts maximum capacity.
Energy ministry officials warn that if rainfall does not improve soon, the dam’s capacity to support both irrigation and power generation may deteriorate further.
With river flows continuing to fall, experts are urging Pakistan government to act swiftly to address its growing water crisis.
Improved water conservation and irrigation practices
Accelerated infrastructure upgrades
Strategic diplomacy to ensure continued water access
National-level planning for climate resilience
If urgent action is not taken, the combined impact of climate change, geopolitical tensions, and aging water infrastructure could accelerate Pakistan’s slide toward chronic water insecurity, with far-reaching consequences for agriculture, energy, and national stability.
