China-Japan war: While the conflict between India and China is the most talked about in the South-Asian region, the real rivalry exists between Japan and China. The relationship between the two can be defined with a phrase, “hot economics, cold politics”. The countries have completed 50 years of diplomatic relationship but they remain at odds over disputed East China Sea islands and China’s growing military and economic assertiveness in the region. The issue of Senkaku islands had already kept Tokyo and Beijing at odds and now the things between the two major economies of South Asia seems to be deteriorating and India has a major role to play in the entire conflict.
Japan seems to be preparing for war
Japan has been a nation that followed a pacifist constitution post World War II. However, with former leader late Shinzo Abe, Japan went through a fundamental change. The development of self-defence forces and the changes prompted by the Russia-Ukraine crisis have made it more visible.
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio KIshida had earlier at the Shangri-La Dialogue said with a “strong sense of urgency” that “Ukraine today may be East Asia tomorrow.” As per a recent report, Japan is said to be gearing up for possible war with China.
The development comes complementing the tense situation in Taiwan. As if China were to attack Taiwan, Japan’s strength could be a hindrance. Also, if Taiwan falls, the Senkaku islands might become indefensible and hence Japan being up with arms must not come with surprise.
Xi Jinping asks army to be prepared
As per a report published in China’s mouthpiece, Xi Jinping had asked China’s PLA (People’s Liberation Army) to focus on preparation for war and fighting. After securing a third term as the leader of the People’s Republic of China, xi visited a command centre and said that the country’s national security is facing increased instability and insecurity. During his speech, he had set the goal of “victory in local wars” for the Chinese forces.
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QUAD’s big blow to Beijing
Xi Jinping might be dreaming of making the Chinese Army a world class Army, at par with the US, the QUAD at the back is planning a big blow to Beijing. In May this year, the supreme leaders of the four QUAD countries (India, Japan, US and Australia) had the second face-to-face meeting in Tokyo where the nations had decided to go all against Beijing.
India and China have been at odds after China’s misadventure in Ladakh. For the US, China appeared to be a dangerous but distant challenge, a perception that does not hold true anymore. For Japan, China’s aggression is the most prominent challenge to be resolved. Japan has been a single most important ally of the US in South Asia; however, Australia remains historically the most reliable ally and it would side with the US, anyday. The countries’ anti-China agenda runs parallel and that may have pushed them to go military.
QUAD takes the ‘military’ route
For the Indian Navy along with Japan’s, the US’ and Australia’s, it has been an exhausting week and the upcoming week is going to be busier. Indian Naval Commanders’ Conference, India-Australia bilateral naval exercise, International Fleet Review in Japan, and Malabar Naval Edition involving the Quad navies. And all this is being seen as contributing to the Indo-Pacific’s stability.
The policy of acting together militarily comes as a recent development as far as QUAD grouping is concerned. This can be seen as a method to counter China’s growing hegemony in the Indo-Pacific. The Indo-Pacific, which is often claimed by China, is guarded by India heavily and with QUAD complementing it, the road for China is tough.
India has a major role to play
Post Russia-Ukraine crisis, India has risen to a prominent stature on the global stage. It was post crisis that the West tried all its cards to bring New Delhi into its fold. The West failed miserably and India’s prospects with Russia grew multifold. Not only in the aspect of trade, but also foreign relations. India has maintained a deep strategic and geopolitical relations with Russia. The relation is such that if India decides to open a front against China in the Himalayas, Russia would stay out and let India handle the matter independently as no new alliance can strain the age-old friendship between Russia and India, India being the only nation that has stood through Moscow during the sanctions war. However, QUAD taking the military route could give sleepless nights to Beijing.
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