There is a very thin line between confidence and arrogance despite the fact that the two are actually poles apart. Politicians who attain power through political manoeuvring often forgets this basic trait. In their arrogance of getting a hold on power, they start living in a self-made paradise. They live in an alternate reality which is completely cut off from the ground realities. Such seems to be the case with Bihar CM Nitish Kumar. He is launching himself in national politics rather than strengthening his dilapidated fortress, tanking seats and vote share. However, this seems to be a smart move to arm twist other opposition parties and project a stronger image than the actual reality.
Nitish’s perennial National Ambitions comes back to the fore
Ever since JD(U) snapped ties with its former ally and government partner BJP, Nitish Kumar has launched an all-out attack against the saffron party. He seems to have revived his national ambitions and is working to impose himself on national politics. Evidently, he is not shying away from accepting his ambitions. He is making statements and political noise for the same reasons.
Also Read: Nitish as PM Modi’s challenger in 2024 will be the best thing for the BJP
Recently, he addressed the meeting of the party’s state executive where he prophesied that the BJP can be bundled up within 50 seats in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections if the opposition unites under one banner. He emphasised that he has shouldered this massive responsibility onto himself and will try to unite the Opposition for the same.
He said, “If all the opposition parties fight together, the BJP will be sent packing out for about 50 seats. I am devoting myself to this drive. BJP will try to disturb social and communal harmony in the state. We must foil their patterns by keeping vigil to the level of panchayats”.
Reportedly, he may head to Delhi to hold several key meetings with Opposition party leaders including Congress’ Rahul Gandhi. Recently, he had met TRS President and Telangana CM K Chandrashekhar Rao with this very agenda for the meeting.
Also Read: PM in waiting Nitish Kumar and KCR were about to bash each other up over the PM chair
Smart tactics to bargain from a position of strength rather than on the terms of ground reality
Currently, the opposition is a divided house with only anti-Modi and anti-BJP glue that can bind them together. But their personal ambitions work as a drifting force. Even after that, if at all they unite under one banner it hardly seems to be under the leadership of Nitish Kumar. He is currently the weakest link even in the fractured opposition. Every other politician staking a claim for the highest political post has higher national standing as compared to JD(U) and Bihar CM Nitish Kumar.
First of all, his lethargic rule has a huge liability of fatigue factor. He has no vote bank of his own unlike many other regional Chhatraps who have gone on to become CM of any state. It is a fact that he gained a chance to be Bihar’s CM post on a single fact that people badly wanted change and anyone but Lalu as their CM. This had worked as his biggest positive, which is off the table now after his recent betrayal of people’s mandate.
He is now rocking in the same boat with RJD and scions of Yadav clan. Moreover, he was shown the mirror by Chirag Paswan, which forced him to make a sympathetic appeal to voters, claiming it to be his last election. Even those who won on JD(U) tickets outside Bihar don’t have faith in his leadership and are defecting to the BJP.
Apart from him, every other CM has a committed vote bank, which is highly influential to sway the results of any election, and thus give them a heavy advantage to others. For example, Ashok Gehlot is claimed to have a huge influence on voters among the Rajput community, who make up around 9% in Rajasthan. Similarly, H.D. Kumaraswamy is said to have the backing of Vokkalinga voters constituting around 15% in the state politics. SP Chief Akhilesh Yadav is higher up in this food chain with a majority of voters of Yadav and Muslim community polling in his favour, which constitute around 11% and 19% respectively. Former Haryana CM Bhupinder Singh Hooda backs the support of influential Jat vote bank making around 22% within the state and influential numbers in other states as well.
Also Read: RJD reduces Nitish Kumar to a glorified clerk
Even when all within the state goes as per his political planning, he has the least support base among politicians eyeing for the PM post in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Reportedly, the voters of Kurmi community vote heavily in his favour which constitute merely 2% in Bihar least to say on the national stage. This is why, he can’t become CM of the state on his own, keep aside him becoming the PM candidate from the opposition front.
Contrary to that, AAP, which has formed governments in two influential states – Delhi and Punjab, is ahead of every other regional party. Moreover, it has created its niche vote bank on the plank of freebies which spread in every community and faith.
Similarly, other CMs like Mamata Banerjee, TRS Chief K Chandrashekhar Rao, NCP Chief Sharad Pawar have higher influence within and outside their own states. So, he should shun “Mungerilal ke haseen Sapne” as he needs a crutch even in the state to become a CM. Why would anyone having higher power dance to his tune and allow him to lead the opposition band?
However, it may be the case that he is pushing a higher bargaining chip in the hope of getting a middle ground, which would anyway be better than what he alone can muster without anti-Modi rhetoric and pushing the envelope too far. It seems that he is basically trying to punch way above his weight and gain higher Lok Sabha seats in case a united opposition puts up a fight against BJP. With this he may be hoping that higher seats to contest yield higher chances of Lok Sabha MPs making him the frontrunner for PM post. However, he is forgetting that the sun seems to be setting for him and his vote bank, seats and image all have gone for a toss with this crazy musical chair for an esteemed post.
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