Amit Shah is going to repeat 'UP 2014' success in Bihar 2024

While addressing the ‘Jan Bhavna Mahasabha’ in Bihar’s Purnea, the Chankya of Indian politics launched a fierce attack on Nitish Kumar, who had recently switched sides and is now busy making bed with his old partner Lalu Yadav’s RJD. Shah claimed that the BJP will come to power in Bihar in 2025.

This simply signals that the Bhartiya Janata Party is confident at squeezing out the maximum from Bihar in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Because, it’s Amit Shah who made the BJP juggernaut unstoppable. And a man of Amit Shah’s stature and acumen would not make hollow claims. Hence, it is apt to state that Amit Shah is going to repeat UP 2014 success in Bihar.

BJP snatched UP from Mayawati and Mulayam in 2014

Uttar Pradesh used to be seen as a stronghold of regional parties. The chair kept juggling between Samajwadi Party’s Mulayam Singh Yadav and Bahujan Samaj Party’s Mayawati. However, BJP took everyone by surprise when it registered a landslide victory in the 2014 general election. It won 71 out of 80 seats in UP, wiping out the regional players by doing so. It was Amit Shah’s social and political strategies that led to such a victory.

Decoding the strategies and the number game

In the 2014 elections, an increase of 25% in votes happened over the last elections and that gave BJP an edge over the other parties. The number of young voters had surged and they mainly voted for BJP.

The BJP already had the firm support of the upper caste. Adding to that, traditional voters of parties like the Congress, Samajwadi Party and the BSP had also voted for the saffron party. But there also were a few fence sitters like Non-Yadav OBCs and Non Jatav Dalits.

BJP under the leadership of Amit Shah, who was then the coordinator of the UP chapter, adopted a special strategy to woo the aforementioned sections of the society. This includes participating in caste associations, pushing forward the backward and Dalit faces, giving the call of Hindu-Ekta among others. The most crucial strategy- Mathadhishes (Caste leaders) were selected and appropriated.

Other than the dominant castes like the Rajput headed by Rajnath Singh or the Brahmins, the unrepresented castes were acknowledged. Their leaders were recognised and given political space like that of Mallahs or the Kurmis. Old BJP faces came forward and this is how Shah’s strategies were implemented. This is what helped sweep the Jat belt as well. Such an alliance with Anupriya Patel brought along with her the support of backward (Lodh) class.

Numerically BJP clocked 60% OBC votes, 15%Dalit Votes, 27% Yadav votes and a whopping 72% Brahmin votes. And that scripted BJP’s biggest ever win in the state of UP, the scales of which even surpassed the records set during Ram Lala movement.

Shah’s plan to repeat ‘UP 2014’ in Bihar

Union Home minister Amit Shah was recently in Purnea that falls in the Seemanchal region of Bihar. A region which openly supported a new entrant this time, Assaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM. By tracing Amit Shah’s recent political tours, one can easily decode that Shah is on a mission and he is going to employ the same strategies that helped him win UP for the BJP.

BJP must have already begun the detailed survey of the state as per dominant caste and religion. The party is keen on converting Bihar into one of its strong footholds and this is what had irked Nitish Kumar and probably this why he left the NDA alliance. Any ally of the saffron party, be it JD(U) in Bihar or the Akali Dal in Punjab, they have always tried to clip BJP’s wings and have never allowed the saffron party to spread its foot in the state. Mapping of every seat is what is going to help BJP in strategising a historic win in 2024 general elections in Bihar.

Caste factor – Trump card for the BJP along with development

Just by tracing the decision of Uttar Pradesh, BJP is wooing the unrepresented sections of the society who come across as potential voters. This includes the Kurmis who account for 2% of Bihar’s population, Kushwaha, Lodha, Gujjar, Sonar, Kamboj, Mallah, Nishad and Gareria among others. This was about the non-Yadav OBCs, non-Jatav and Jatav Dalits. BJP has majorly successfully wooed these communities and now it eyes the vote bank of RJD that is Yadavs. The recent trends suggest that the fence sitters Yadavs are already drifting towards the saffron party.

BJP has also begun mobilising the party cadre on every single booth. Execution at the booth level is what will gain the BJP huge numbers like it did in UP in 2014. As the election season comes closer, major rallies will be planned, as it was done in UP, with star pracharaks taking the juggernaut forward.

Why BJP chose Muslim dominated Seemanchal

The stakes have already been raised for the 2024 general elections, and Shah has chosen Muslim dominated Seemanchal to kick off the Bihar campaign. The region used to view Nitish Kumar as its leader, however, the misdeeds of Nitish Kumar have left the region disenchanted.

The Muslim population of Seemanchal ranges from around 70 per cent (in Kishanganj) to 35 per cent (in Purnea). The BJP hopes to repeat its good days by consolidating the Hindu votes in its support in the Seemanchal region, which happens to be a sensitive area, being a haven for infiltrators.

In 2014, everything in the state of Uttar Pradesh, all the theories and thumb rules, were defied. In addition to the urban class support, BJP is all set to add the unrepresented caste as well to its fold, and just like 2014, BJP will sweep the state wiping out all, suggests the analysis.