Economy of the world is collapsing and threat of a recession is looming around the globe. The stable & large economies like the US are crumbling with stagflation. China is on the verge of bankruptcy. Japan had already predicted an impending recession two years back. Amidst this chaos, India is standing tall, leaving the world surprised with its GDP growth. Well, we are not saying this. A recent survey has said that India has zero probability of slipping into recession.
India immune to recession
While the world market is gripped with the fears of global recession, India’s economy is believed to stay unharmed from any upcoming economic crisis. A recent survey by Bloomberg has made it clear that the percentage of recession in India is Zero. It released a chart displaying the risk of recession in some Asian countries. It revealed that India will not slip into recession while the risk is highest for Sri Lanka with 85 per cent which is up from a 33% chance in the previous survey.
The survey also raised their expectations for a chance of a recession in New Zealand, Taiwan, Australia and the Philippines to 33%, 20%, 20% and 8%, respectively.
The probability of recession for several other Asian economies has not changed and are same as in the previous lists. There is a 20% chance that China will enter a recession, and a 25% chance for South Korea or Japan to enter one.
Ironically, China and Pak prove their bond yet again as both have the probability of 20 per cent to slip into recession. Bloomberg predicted the chance of a US recession at 38% up from around 0% just a few months before.
India will also benefit from the recession
Well, it’s a win-win situation for India. Earlier in June this year, a report suggested that the recessions in advanced economies may benefit the Indian economy. Samiran Chakraborty, managing director and chief economist for India at Citigroup, had informed that “India being a net importer of commodities should benefit on the inflation front.” He also added that “India would still face pressures from a global slowdown as it will crimp exports and economic growth.”
He went on to say that “since policy making, as of now, is entirely focused on inflation control, it appears that it can benefit India to some extent.”
India’s economy growing at an outstanding pace
There are many reasons that India’s economy is rising higher and higher. In the last few months, India’s export growth has been phenomenal, indeed. As per the data, there has been over 21 per cent growth in exports over the previous record high of $330 billion, which was achieved in FY 2019 in the pre-COVID era.
Another reason could be attributed to tax collection. After the pandemic hit the nation, it was expected that the tax collection will fall sharply, the income tax collection in FY21 was 4.88 lakh crore rupees which is resulting in a strong economy in India.
Yes, Inflation is rising higher in India but as far as the world is compared, it is quite lower than in other countries. According to statistics, India, with its 7.04 per cent inflation rate ranks 108 among a total of 172 countries.
Moreover, At the time when the Rupee was depreciating against the Dollar, it registered an upsurge in its value against currencies like the Norwegian Krone, Japanese Yen, British Pound, and Euro among others
Recession is coming for the world
The economic storm facing the world is the result of lessening economic activities in the United States, the impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the property crisis and lockdowns in China. All these aspects have contributed a lot to the world to witness recession. China has seen a GDP expansion of a mere 0.4% in the first quarter of 2022 at a time when it was expecting a 5.5% GDP growth rate.
Read more: China is on the verge of bankruptcy
The American economy is also showing clear signs of slowing down. The oilonomics of India along with the American stock market are one of the reasons causing a slowdown in the US economy. Sri Lanka’s situation is not hidden by anyone. The country is being aided by India for survival. Bangladesh, too, is having a hard time dealing with the economic crisis.
India’s trade policies and reforms by the Modi government have led India to rise above all the odds and manage to shine even when the world is moving towards a darker era.
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