Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, the popular, dynamic and staunch nationalist is all set to return to the chief minister’s office with a landslide majority if elections to the Uttar Pradesh assembly were to be held today, according to an ABP-C Voter survey conducted this month. Contrary to claims that the BJP faces an uphill task in India’s most populous state in the election due for next year, the survey has found that the BJP is miles ahead of any other political party in the state when it comes to both predicted vote and seat shares.
The BJP is projected to win 289 seats in the 403-seat Uttar Pradesh Assembly in March 2021, down 36 from the 2016 election. The Samajwadi Party (SP) is projected to be the second largest party with 59 seats followed by the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) with 38 seats but not posing any real challenge to the BJP. The BJP will be ahead of the second-largest party in the state by a whopping 18 per cent vote share. The party is projected to garner 41 per cent of the vote if elections were to be held in Uttar Pradesh now.
Meanwhile, the ABP – C Voter survey also shows that the Samajwadi Party might get mere 24.4 per cent vote share in case elections in UP are held today. BSP might as well abase itself as survey shows the party might secure just 20.8 per cent vote share, a -1.4-swing compared to last Assembly polls. The survey also projects 5.9 per cent vote share for the Congress party, -0.3 per cent swing compared to 2016 elections.
In terms of seats, the SP is likely to get 59 seats, an addition of 12 seats from its 2016 tally in case elections in Uttar Pradesh happen today. The BSP and Congress may get 38 seats (+19), 9 seats (-3) respectively. The Samajwadi Party is projected to emerge as the second-largest party in the state, although it is miles behind the BJP when it comes to the seat share.
In 2017 Assembly polls, saffron party managed to get a gigantic mandate by securing 41.4 per cent vote share, which translated to the BJP winning 325 seats in a 403-member state assembly. The survey goes on to show how Yogi Adityanath and the BJP continue to be tremendously popular in Uttar Pradesh, and how the voters are not even considering other political parties as worthy of being thought of. The Congress’ fortunes particularly, are set to witness further shrinkage, despite Priyanka Vadra’s desperate campaigning in the state.
It must be remembered that the BJP has not even started campaigning in the state as of now, and close to a year remains before the first ballots for the assembly elections are cast in UP. That gives the saffron party enormous time to even further strengthen its position electorally. It would not be particularly surprising if the BJP, under the leadership of chief minister Yogi Adityanath, were to surpass its own tally of 2016 this time around.