From asking “Who is Ajmal?” in 2006, to now enthusiastically pushing for an alliance with the AIUDF, Tarun Gogoi has come a long way. Being a former Chief Minister of Assam and a Congress leader with a massive foothold in party affairs of the state, Tarun Gogoi is now putting all his weight behind the fruition of a Congress-AIUDF alliance in Assam. As reported by TFI earlier, Gogoi has been pushing for the said alliance since 2015. Having faced an unprecedented rout in the 2016 state elections, Gogoi now realises that the 2021 elections are a make or break one not just for him, but his family too.
Gaurav Gogoi, the son of former Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi and MP from Kaliabor in Assam is a Congress stalwart in the state as well, and it would undoubtedly be Tarun Gogoi’s dream to see his son as the Chief Minister of Assam. However, a Congress defeat in 2021 yet again, which is very much imminent irrespective of their alliance with the AIUDF, would spell the death knell for Gogoi dynasty in the state, and as a result, at all prospects of Gaurav Gogoi becoming the Chief Minister soon.
The Congress aligning with the AIUDF, along with all other anti-BJP parties of the state may still go a very short distance in helping the Grand Old Party make any noticeable gains. With a ruthless BJP machinery to fight, and Himanta Biswa Sarma leading its charge no less, the Congress might be making a childish assumption of winning elections by aligning with just about any tom, dick and harry in the state.
While for Tarun Gogoi an alliance with the AIUDF may be the last straw to save his dynasty from complete obliteration, for other Congress leaders of the state, it is no less than a suicide mission bound to go catastrophically wrong, as the move would lead to consolidation of Hindu and indigenous votes in favour of the saffron party like never before.
It comes as no surprise, therefore, that a significant chunk of senior Congress leadership in Assam has rebelled against the move of allying with the AIUDF. Tarun Gogoi, who for so long has remained the tallest figure in Assam Congress, is now facing stiff opposition from within. To witness Tarun Gogoi’s firm hold over Assam Congress slipping out of his hands is a development whose news is most likely to break in the coming days.
Tarun Gogoi is therefore caught in a catch-22 situation. While joining hands with the AIUDF is the only plausible and prudent way to go about even imagining a defeat of the BJP at the hands of a united opposition, it comes at the cost of alienating the entire senior Congress leadership. In both cases, the Gogoi dynasty will be dealt an insufferable blow. As the electorate gets alienated further away from the Congress due to its alliance with the alleged infiltrator-sympathetic Badruddin Ajmal’s AIUDF, the Congress leadership will stop paying heed to what Tarun Gogoi has to say thereafter.