Days after India hinted at dropping the no-first-use nuclear doctrine, Pakistan has made a U-turn from its earlier rhetoric which involved constantly threatening India with nuclear war. All India has done from the time the surgical strikes took place, through the Balakot airstrikes and then changing the status of Jammu and Kashmir, is call out the nuclear bluff of the Imran Khan led Pakistan.
Dropping the prolonged habit of threatening India with nuclear war, Pakistani PM-Imran Khan has come to his senses and has that the Islamic nation will never start a war with India. “We will never ever start the war. Both Pakistan and India are nuclear powers and if tension escalates the world will face danger,” said Imran Khan.
The Pakistani Prime Minister might have saved his hat in the name of global danger, the reality remains that Pakistan will not fight a war against India, because it cannot afford one. However, Imran took a ‘pacifist’ stance to get praise from global liberal intelligentsia. “I want to tell India that war is not a solution to any problem. The winner in war is also a loser. War gives birth to host of other issues,” he said.
A satirical take on U-Turn Khan (Hindi)
Pakistani economy is facing serious macroeconomic issues. Inflation has touched double digit in the Islamic country, and the Prime Minister had to hold meetings to regulate the price of bread and butter. The value of Pakistani rupee has lost almost 60 per cent of value against dollar in first 8 months of this calendar year.
The foreign investment is all time low. In fact, the foreign investors pulled out billions of dollars in the last few months. The country has foreign reserves worth only few months of imports, despite help from friendly countries like China, Saudi Arabia, and UAE. The 6 billion dollar bailout package could not help the country to sail through economic crisis. The per capita income has registered negative growth in last fiscal year in absolute terms, given the exponential decline in the value of the Pakistani rupee.
Therefore, given the macroeconomic condition of the country, Pakistan cannot afford a war. Even if it fights one, the terror exporting country will lose on all fronts. Ayesha Siddiqa- Pakistan’s eminent military scientist and political commentator, has openly accepted that the debt ridden country is not in a position to fight a war against India. “I was interacting with a friend in Pakistan-occupied-Kashmir (PoK) and asked him why the Army is not fighting. Then the reply came — they will get defeated. Now, common people understand that this is not the right time to fight a war against India,” said the 53 year old military scientist.
She also said that this is the first time that common people of Pakistan are well aware of the fact that nothing can be done against India. “This is for the first time, a common man (in Pakistan) realises that war is not possible. There is a pain, a deep sorrow but there is despair that nothing can’t be done. It’s time to see as to how Pakistan Army will react,” said Siddiqa.
Pakistan’s armed forces stand no chance against India in case of limited or full scale war. India’s military spending has increased every year under the Modi government. In 2018, the spending grew by 3.1 percent compared to 2017 to reach 66.5 billion dollars. The spending has increased by 29 percent compared to a decade back. “Increases in Indian military expenditure are largely motivated by tensions and rivalry with Pakistan and China,” read the SIPRI report.
The neighboring country of Pakistan has increased defense spending to a new high of 4 percent of GDP in 2018. This is the highest spending since 2004 when former army General Pervez Musharraf was at the helm of state affairs. Pakistan’s defense spending is 4 per cent of GDP compared to 2.4 per cent of India but given the small size of the Pakistani economy, the total spending by Pakistan is 11.4 billion dollars as against the 66.5 billion dollars of India. Pakistan’s military spending rose by 73 percent compared to 2009 levels and 11 percent compared to 2017.
Despite spending a higher percentage of GDP on defense, Pakistan is 20th largest spender globally compared to the 4th position held by India. Its defense spending is a paltry 20 percent of India’s and therefore, there is no comparison between military capabilities of both countries. India has some of the most technologically advanced weapons in the world. The Indian Armed Forces is on fourth rank in global firepower index after the United States, China, and Russia while Pakistan does not get a place even in the top ten. Therefore, the ‘pacifist’ stance by Imran is much needed course correction.
