BSP is not gaining ground rapidly but to discard it like a piece of trash will be a political blunder and Neta Ji is no novice. The crackdown on black money, surgical strikes and overall good governance have given a massive boost to BJP’s chances in the state of Uttar Pradesh.
The Dalit-OBC voter base of Mayawati stands resolutely behind her. The Upper caste voters and the urbanized and development seeking youth from all castes have sworn allegiance to the BJP. Congress banks on traditional Gandhi bastions and RLD still has enough goodwill in Western Uttar Pradesh. There is no question of a Mahagathbandhan now, so if all parties perform to their true potentials, there will be a hung assembly in Uttar Pradesh and there is only one way Samajwadi Party can bounce back to power – By drilling a hole in BJP’s base.
Let us first take a look at the Samajwadi Party feud.
The Samajwadi party dispute started with the Quami Ekta Dal merger that couldn’t materialize. The carefully concealed family feud was out in the open. The episode triggered a perpetual muscle flexing tournament between the two warring factions led by Shivpal Yadav and Akhilesh Yadav respectively.
Today the differences are out in the open. The apparent split of the Samajwadi Party is not just hampering the electoral prospect of the party but is also making it an object of public ridicule. But what if there is no feud and this is just eyewash for the unsuspecting electorate?
Let us analyze why?
Samajwadi Party stormed to power because of two very strong reasons. Firstly, the social appeal of Mulayam Singh Yadav who commands almost all Yadav and Muslim votes and a little bit of OBC and Kshatriya votes in Uttar Pradesh. The second reason was the foreign return charms of Akhilesh Yadav.
Akhilesh Yadav’s charisma was an important reason behind young and development seeking voters voting for a supremely casteist and communal party like Samajwadi Party.
And while the government was functional, Akhilesh Yadav never waded in the dirty waters of party politics and focused only on governance. There were loose statements made against him, he didn’t retaliate. Muzzaffarnagar riots and Saifai Mahotsav happened but Akhilesh Yadav never uttered a single loose statement. He talked about roads and educations and Etawah Lion Safari and UP Investment conclave. His PR firm quietly cemented his pro-development with a tinge of socialism image in the minds of voters. In simple words he kept his slightly urbanized, development seeking electorate happy and content.
And while Akhilesh focused on governance, his father and uncle indulged in the basest of Politics. Name calling, crass statements remained every day businesses in UP Politics. Not to forget Samajwadi Party’s trademark Goondagardi remained a routine affair as well. So basically Mulayam and Shivpal made sure that their patrons remained motivated too.
To an unsuspecting spectator, it would seem that Akhilesh was/is a good person in a wrong party. And the fight that he put up to his uncle who has a very strong clout in Uttar Pradesh would seem praiseworthy too.
But let us see how this works for them.
Mulayam and Shivpal along with Mukhtar Ansari and Azam Khan get all the Muslim and Yadav votes in the states along with some OBC and Kshatriya votes. A dejected and cornered Akhilesh Yadav fights Mahabharata against his own clan and manages to get votes from the urban youth and development seeking populace. Then they meet for a patch up after the elections and chalk out a common minimum program. Akhilesh the development mascot gets selected as the CM. Hugs and Handshakes then mark the epoch of 2nd consecutive Samajwaadi Government in the most populous state of India.
How does this sound to you?
