The Strait of Hormuz has returned to the centre of global geopolitics, with US President Donald Trump stating that Chinese President Xi Jinping “is very happy that the Strait of Hormuz is open and/or rapidly opening”. The comment, made on Truth Social, comes as global energy markets respond to easing disruptions after weeks of instability linked to conflict in the Middle East.
Trump also described his upcoming meeting with Xi in China next month as “special” and potentially “historic”, adding that “much will be accomplished”. The framing positions the engagement as a wider diplomatic moment, extending beyond bilateral ties into global energy security and regional stability concerns.
A strategic chokepoint under pressure
The Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly one-fifth of global oil supply flows, was severely disrupted after the escalation in the Middle East. The crisis began on February 28 when the United States and Israel launched strikes on Iran, triggering a response from Iran’s Revolutionary Guards that disrupted global shipping lanes and impacted nearly 20 per cent of global oil movement.
Although a ceasefire has been in place for around two weeks, shipping has not returned to normal. Traffic, which earlier exceeded 130 vessels per day, remains sharply reduced and continues at only a fraction of usual levels.
Iran reopened the Strait following a ceasefire in Lebanon, but warned it could shut the route again if the United States does not lift its naval blockade on Iranian ports, keeping the situation strategically uncertain.
Trump’s claims on Xi and Iran messaging
Trump has repeatedly suggested coordination with Xi Jinping on Iran-related issues, claiming that China has agreed not to supply weapons to Tehran. He said he wrote directly to Xi on the matter and received confirmation that Beijing was not involved in arms transfers.
In remarks to Fox News, Trump reiterated that Xi denied supplying weapons to Iran. He also told Axios that Iran is seeking talks with the United States, suggesting a meeting could take place over the weekend.
At the same time, Trump combined diplomacy with deterrence, stating that while cooperation is ongoing, the United States remains “very good at fighting, if it has to”.
He also added a personal remark, saying Xi would give him a “big, fat hug” during their meeting in China, highlighting the informal and highly personalised tone of his diplomatic messaging.
Markets react sharply to easing tensions
Global financial markets reacted immediately to developments around the Strait. Brent crude fell around 9.1 per cent to near 90 dollars per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate dropped to about 84 dollars. European natural gas prices also declined sharply, falling up to 10 per cent to around 39 euros per megawatt-hour.
Shipping activity through the Strait remains significantly below normal levels, with daily crossings still far under the 130-plus vessels recorded before the disruption.
Separately, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed that Washington will not extend waivers for Russian or Iranian oil imports, with the current exemption set to expire on Sunday.
A fragile balance, not stability
Despite easing market pressure, the underlying situation remains unstable. The Strait is open but not normalised, diplomacy is active but unresolved, and energy flows remain vulnerable to renewed disruption.
What is emerging is a temporary and fragile equilibrium shaped by military pressure, diplomatic signalling, and volatile global energy dynamics, with the Strait of Hormuz once again acting as a critical lever in international stability.
