The recent signing of a so-called “Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement” between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan has triggered speculation in South Asia. The pact, couched in NATO-style language “an attack on one shall be considered an attack on both” is being projected in Islamabad as a diplomatic victory against India. With fantasies of Saudi F-15s and Eurofighter Typhoons swooping in to aid Pakistan during a future conflict, Pakistani media has hailed the deal as strategic deterrence against New Delhi. But the reality is far removed from these expectations. Analysts argue the pact is aimed less at India and more at Israel, while Riyadh has already made clear that its growing partnership with India remains unaffected. For Pakistan, desperate for international relevance, this deal may appear historic. For India, however, it is little more than posturing.
Saudi Arabia Balances Its Ties with India
Despite the pact’s wording, Saudi Arabia has moved swiftly to clarify its intentions. Officials in Riyadh emphasized that the deal is not directed at any country, least of all India, with whom relations are at an all-time high. “Our relationship with India is more robust than it has ever been. We will continue to grow this relationship and contribute to regional peace in whichever way we can,” a senior Saudi diplomat told Reuters.
The numbers tell the real story. In FY 2024–25, India–Saudi bilateral trade stood at USD 41.88 billion, making New Delhi Riyadh’s second-largest trading partner. By contrast, Pakistan–Saudi trade remains negligible at barely USD 3–4 billion. Economic realities make it unthinkable for Riyadh to jeopardize its flourishing relationship with India in exchange for supporting Pakistan’s confrontational posturing.
Moreover, Saudi Arabia’s ties with India extend far beyond trade. Millions of Indian expatriates live and work in the Kingdom, contributing both to its economy and to the remittances that strengthen India’s financial ecosystem. This people-to-people connect dwarfs any military rhetoric between Riyadh and Islamabad.
Thus, while Pakistan may seek to use the pact as a deterrent, the Kingdom’s priority lies in expanding its partnership with India in energy, trade, investment, and security cooperation.
A Signal to Israel, Not India
If not India, then who is the Saudi-Pakistan pact really aimed at? Analysts believe the deal is a veiled signal to Israel. The timing is telling coming just days after Israel launched a controversial strike on Qatar, targeting Hamas leadership. The attack rattled Arab states, raising questions about U.S. reliability as a long-term security guarantor in the Gulf.
Saudi Arabia, facing the growing assertiveness of Israel armed with nuclear capability and emboldened by tacit U.S. backing sought to project a message of solidarity within the Islamic bloc. By aligning with Pakistan, Riyadh signals that in the face of a direct Israeli threat, it has a Muslim-majority nuclear-armed ally at its side.
Indeed, Pakistan’s nuclear program has long attracted Saudi interest. Reports suggest Riyadh has quietly financed parts of Pakistan’s atomic project, a claim that surfaced in Pakistani General Feroz Hassan Khan’s book Eating Grass: The Making of the Pakistani Bomb. Some analysts argue that under extreme circumstances, Saudi Arabia could look to shelter under Pakistan’s “nuclear umbrella.”
For India, however, this dynamic does not alter regional equations. Israel and India today share strong defence and intelligence cooperation, while Saudi Arabia’s priorities remain centred on countering Iranian-backed militias, Houthi rebels, and now Israeli assertiveness. Simply put, Riyadh is unlikely to risk its India relationship to indulge Pakistan’s daydreams.
The Houthi Question: Burden for Pakistan
Beyond Israel, the pact could have direct consequences for Pakistan itself. Under the “attack on one = attack on both” clause, Pakistan may find itself dragged into Saudi Arabia’s regional conflicts especially against the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen.
For years, the Houthis have launched drone and missile attacks deep into Saudi territory, threatening the Kingdom’s security. Analysts warn that the defence pact could see Pakistani soldiers deployed to defend Riyadh, reviving memories of the 1960s when Pakistan sent troops during tensions over Egypt’s war in Yemen.
Already, more than 8,000 Saudi officers have been trained by Pakistan since 1967, highlighting the military-to-military ties. But Islamabad has often been reluctant to shoulder Riyadh’s burdens. In 2015, Pakistan refused to send troops for the Saudi-led intervention in Yemen, causing a major diplomatic rift.
Now, with this agreement in place, Pakistan may not have the luxury of saying no. Instead of gaining a shield against India, Islamabad risks being entangled in the Middle East’s endless conflicts a development that weakens, rather than strengthens, its own strategic standing.
India Watches with Caution
India’s official response has been measured. New Delhi acknowledged that the agreement merely formalises a long-standing understanding between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. Geopolitical analysts agree. “India and Pakistan have fought four wars and several major clashes. Saudi Arabia had to have considered this in negotiating the pact. It does not mean Riyadh envisions a meaningful role in the next India–Pakistan clash,” noted political scientist Christopher Clary.
Indeed, for New Delhi, the Saudi-Pakistan pact is a reminder of the Kingdom’s balancing act. Saudi Arabia, like many Gulf states, seeks to hedge its bets across competing powers maintaining links with Pakistan for historical and religious reasons, while cultivating India for its economic and geopolitical rise.
Pakistan’s Victory is Illusory
Despite the grand rhetoric in Islamabad, the Saudi-Pakistan defence agreement is far from the security guarantee Pakistan imagines it to be. Its primary subtext lies in Riyadh’s concerns over Israel and broader Middle Eastern security, not South Asia. For India, Saudi Arabia’s reassurances, robust economic ties, and shared strategic interests outweigh any cosmetic pact signed with Pakistan.
More critically, the agreement could end up being a burden for Pakistan, drawing it deeper into Saudi Arabia’s regional battles rather than shielding it against India. The fantasy of Saudi fighter jets defending Pakistan in a war with India is exactly that a fantasy. On the ground, New Delhi’s strong partnerships, expanding economy, and growing international stature ensure that Riyadh will continue prioritising India over Islamabad.
In the end, this “NATO-style” pact may bring headlines in Pakistan, but for India, it is business as usual focused on growth, partnerships, and security in a multipolar world.
