The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is expected to cut the repo rate one more time during the ongoing financial year (FY26), before shifting to a pause mode, according to a new report by Crisil. The report suggests that this frontloading of monetary easing comes as inflation stabilizes, giving the central bank room to focus on growth amid rising global uncertainties.
Crisil also projected India’s GDP to grow at 6.5% in FY26, supported by strong domestic fundamentals, though it flagged external risks, especially from U.S. tariff hikes, that could impact exports and investment sentiment.
The RBI, in its latest monetary policy review on June 7, slashed the repo rate by 25 basis points, bringing it down to 6%, marking the second cut this calendar year. In total, the central bank has lowered the benchmark rate by 100 basis points since February 2025.
Additionally, the RBI reduced the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) by 100 basis points in the second half of the fiscal year, a move aimed at boosting liquidity in the banking system and encouraging lending.
These measures are designed to lower borrowing costs across the economy and provide a fillip to consumption and investment.
Positive Spillovers for the Middle Class
The Crisil report underlined that middle-income households stand to benefit significantly from this policy stance. With lending rates already starting to decline—home loan rates down by 30 bps, auto loans by 20 bps, and deposit rates by 15 bps—households will likely enjoy lower EMIs, making big-ticket purchases more affordable.
Combined with recent income-tax reliefs, especially aimed at the salaried middle class, and easing food inflation, the policy environment is becoming more conducive to household savings and spending. This, Crisil suggests, will help sustain private consumption—an essential pillar of India’s GDP.
“Transmission of policy rate cuts is picking up pace, and the middle class is expected to gain directly through reduced borrowing costs and indirectly through improved job creation and consumption,” the report noted.
Why the Rate Cut Matters Now
The RBI’s shift to a more growth-supportive posture comes as inflation has declined to manageable levels. Crisil expects inflation to remain close to the central bank’s target of 4%, supported by a favourable monsoon, stable crude oil prices, and strong forex reserves.
The report highlights that while global risks—particularly tariff-driven trade tensions—could pose challenges, India’s low current account deficit, limited short-term debt exposure, and healthy foreign exchange reserves provide sufficient buffers.
Looking Ahead: A Cautious Pause
While another rate cut is likely in FY26, Crisil believes that the RBI will adopt a more data-driven and cautious approach thereafter. The central bank’s recent shift to a “neutral” stance suggests that future decisions will depend on inflation trends, global headwinds, and domestic economic indicators.
Overall, Crisil’s outlook implies that policy-driven support, combined with macro stability, could help India sustain growth momentum, especially if consumption picks up pace—led in large part by relief to the middle class.
