India is set to face a very hot March. It is expected that it will have an impact on wheat and rice production. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has warned of high temperatures and more heat wave days than usual.
Climate Change and Food Production
February 2025 was the hottest in 124 years. Rising temperatures threaten wheat and rice production because March is India’s wheat harvesting month. Officials say the output could drop by 6-10% due to climate change.
In 2023-24, India produced 113.29 million tonnes of wheat and 137 million tonnes of rice. About 80% of Indians rely on government-subsidized grains. Since 1901, India’s average temperature has risen by 0.7°C. The year 2024 was the hottest ever, with temperatures 0.90°C above normal.
How Extreme Heat Affects Crops
Global warming is weakening Western Disturbances. Western Disturbances bring winter rain to northern India, which is essential for Rabi crops such as wheat. Less rain means less water for farming and people, which has a direct effect on production.
Experts predict wheat yields may drop by 6-25% by 2100. Irrigated rice production could decrease by 7% by 2050 and 10% by 2080. This is huge because it will create food shortages across India.
Heat stress harms wheat crops. It affects plant growth, lowers grain production, and reduces quality. Rising sea temperatures are forcing fish to move to deeper waters. This is hurting coastal fishing communities and affecting their livelihood.
Extreme weather events are becoming more frequent. Heavy rains are harder to predict. Earlier, forecasts gave three days’ notice. Now, warnings come just one and a half days in advance.
Melting Himalayan glaciers will reduce snowfall. This means less water for millions of people. The Himalayas and Hindukush mountains provide water for one-seventh of the world’s population.
Heat Wave impact on agriculture: Why the Indian Ocean Matters
Wheat grows in three stages—germination, shoot development, and maturity. The Indian Ocean is warming faster than before. Scientists say it may stay in a “near-permanent heatwave state” by the end of the century.
This change will affect India’s monsoon, which is key for farming. If summer crops (kharif) take longer to grow, rabi crops like wheat will be planted late. A late wheat crop will face early heat waves, lowering yield and quality.
Heat makes wheat grains harder, reducing their market value. Farmers may earn less due to poor grain quality.
Ways to Protect Crops from Heat Stress
To ensure food security, India must manage crops better. This includes proper use of fertilizers, pest control, and efficient water management. After all, efficiency in water management is important; otherwise, India will not only suffer bad crop quality but also water shortages.
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Encouraging early wheat sowing in heat-prone areas can help. A mix of scientific research, financial aid, technology, and farmer training is needed to protect crops. It is also imperative to make our farmers aware of the current changing situation and the methods to overcome it. It should start early in order to keep pace with the changing environment scenarios.
Heat wave warning for 2025
IMD warns that March 2025 will be one of the hottest ever. Daytime temperatures will rise from the second week of March. Many states may see temperatures over 40°C by the end of the month.
On February 26, Mumbai recorded 38.7°C—5.9 degrees above normal. Goa and Coastal Maharashtra also saw heatwave conditions with temperatures above 37°C. These temperatures are very abnormal in these areas at this point in time. It shows us that something is not right, and we have to cope with it.
Due to a heatwave in February and March, India had to limit wheat exports. IMD predicts a sharp temperature rise in northern and central India in mid-March, possibly 6°C above normal. This could severely affect wheat crop production. Farmers and state apparatus look helpless and cannot reverse it. India had to restrict its wheat exports to safeguard the domestic supply this year.
