The high-octane multi-party elections of Maharashtra concluded with the counting on almost all seats with Mahayuti emerging as the clear winner. The assembly elections 2024 in Maharashtra, being one of its kind, have given the mandate to the ruling Mahayuti while it leaves MVA with only the possibility to introspect what went wrong. As of now, Mahayuti is well poised to form the govt conveniently while BJP has once again emerged as the single largest party.
The stats so far suggest
BJP: 131
Shiv Sena: 54
NCP: 40
Congress: 19
NCP SCP: 12
Shiv Sena (UBT): 20
Nearly six months after the Lok Sabha elections, the tides have turned. Six months ago, the Mahayuti suffered a major setback as it lost electoral grounds to the MVA. It was almost sure that the contest in assembly polls would be tough and the chances of the return of MVA were more than any time in the past. However, it is commendable of Majayuti that it anticipated the wave and turned it in its favour.
#WATCH | Mumbai | Maharashtra Deputy CM Devendra Fadnavis says, “People have given their mandate and people have accepted Eknath Shinde as the real Shiv Sena and Ajit Pawar has got the legitimacy of NCP.”#MaharashtraElection2024 pic.twitter.com/OyEQIzwq8i
— ANI (@ANI) November 23, 2024
As usual, from the opposition bloc, there will be a timeframe of political accusations regarding EVMs, questions on the credibility of the Election Commission, and blame games among others, the bitter loss for the MVA needs a proper analysis. But the BJP-led Mahayuti’s recovery of electoral ground after the Lok Sabha setback underscores a deft and calculated strategic recalibration.
Wrestling back Marathwada and Vidarbha from the MVA
In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, Mahayuti suffered the biggest blow in Marathwada. Tracing the performance from the 2019 Lok Sabha and Assembly polls shows that the BJP was winning big in this region, which became the base for its pan-Maharashtra rise after the emergence of PM Modi on the national landscape. However, in 2024 the splits in both the NCP and Shiv Sena created electoral complexities of their own. The changed dynamics made it difficult for political pundits to efficiently predict the future course.
Among other challenges that the BJP had, apart from Marathwada was Vidarbha. In the 2019 assembly elections, the BJP suffered the biggest setback in the Vidarbha region. Back then, the saffron party lost a chunk of 15 seats. However, this time the BJP has managed to dominate the Vidarbha region too.
While in Marathwada, the Majayuti is ahead on 70 percent of the seats, it has also seen a revival in Vidarbha. In Vidarbha, the Mahayuti is securing around 47.6% of the vote share in these elections, which is a 5.9 percentage point increase compared to its performance in the Lok Sabha elections.
Similarly in rural areas, Mahayuti is garnering 48.7% of the vote share, 9.2 percentage points higher than its performance in the Lok Sabha polls.
In both Vidarbha and rural areas, Mahayuti’s gains are equivalent to MVA’s loss of vote percent.
In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP almost lost its ground as Congress and other MVA constituents swept the region. One of the reasons was the resentment among the Maratha voters over the reservation. Back then, so-called Maratha reservation ‘activist’ Manoj Jarange made a big dent in the Mahayuti’s electoral prospects. However, the BJP managed to convince people in these elections that reservation is just a game of optics played by Sharad Pawar from behind. BJP also successfully conveyed Maratha community that it is the only party that provided a maximum of 16 percent reservation to Marathas. Later Jarange’s pullout from the battle made it clear to the Maratha community that they had been deceived.
Development and Call for Unity – Ek hai to ‘safe’ hai
Secondly, the Mahayuti reinforced its electoral strategy by emphasizing the development agenda while promoting social cohesion through a call for unity among voters.
On one hand, the BJP redeemed religious sentiments with ‘Ek hai to safe hai’ and ‘Batenge to Katenge’ it continued with its policy of development. Since Eknath Shinde took governance in his hand, one this that has been an undeniable fact is the infra boost. Mumbai Coastal Road, Atal Setu, Nagoir Airport, and Mumbai Metro are some of the major projects that people witnessed becoming reality.
Laying an impetus on development politics, in many of the past elections, PM Modi led from the front as he inaugurated crucial projects in election years to raise the stakes for his party and alliance, which helped him in MP, Haryana, Chhattisgarh, and Rajasthan. Maharashtra was not an exception to that.
‘Batenge to Katenge’, the slogan coined by CM Yogi clicked with the majority of the voters which is reflecting in the election results.
However one of the key reasons for the majority’s decisive voting this time was the communal rhetoric and appeasement policies promised by the Congress and its MVA partners. Sharad Pawar has his own Muslim vote bank that was highly unlikely to go with Ajit Pawar’s faction. But Congres’s announcement of reservations to Muslims in govt tenders at a time when it was validated that it included all Muslim castes into OBC in Karnataka made it absolutely clear that Congress was banking majorly on Muslim votes and was ready to succumb to demands of Muslims.
Additionally, All India Ulama Board (AIUB) demands and the Congress state chief’s affirmation on it didn’t go in their favour as well as it exposed the blatant Muslim appeasement of these parties which played a major role in galvanising common voters in Mahayuti’s favour.
Among other issues that helped Mahayuti was Majhi Ladki Bahin Yojna. The testimonies of many beneficiaries underscored the fact that the policy delivered the same effect as it delivered in MP. On top of that, the announcement to raise the amount was even more effective. This would be evident after detailed results of how women voters cast their votes.
Also, interestingly like Haryana, the farmer voter, which was also one of the reasons for dwindling BJP votes in Lok Sabha, has voted in favour of the BJP.
Lastly, the whole picture that has emerged in Maharashtra makes it clear that the BJP and its allies are back on track to garner votes from all segments of society. Be it the Maratha-dominated constituencies, OBC-dominated seats, Dalit-dominated areas, or farmers as well in women-dominated constituencies, the Mahayuti has dominated the results in these respective spheres.
Meanwhile, the elections yet again show that despite a kind of revival in Lok Sabha, Congress still lacks clarity on what it must pursue. Also, the results have made it abundantly clear that Congress’s performance in Lok Sabha was merely because of its regional allies that were on the rise. Solely, it is still in a similar condition.
As the next assembly elections are in Delhi, the regained momentum of the BJP will certainly help the party to make inroads into the NCT.
