An earthquake struck both Iran and Israel on the evening of October 5, sparking intense speculation of a nuclear test. The 4.6 magnitude earthquake had its epicentre in Aradan, Semnan, a province in Iran. Just minutes after the initial quake, a second, weaker tremor was reported in Israel around midnight, further fuelling concerns about the nature of these seismic events. The timing of the quakes along with the ongoing tensions between the two nations, has led to speculations that a covert nuclear test may be in the works.
The tremors were felt as far away as Tehran, approximately 110 km from the epicentre, according to the US Geological Survey. Though a test has not yet been confirmed by the Iranian regime, the signs are ominous. Only last week Iran had fired around 200 ballistic missiles at Israel as retaliation for the killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. This was the second time this year when Iran had directly attacked Israel, the previous attack coming in April when Iran had launched over 300 drones and missiles at the Jewish nation.
Iran’s warning
Iran and Israel have been at loggerheads for a long time, the clash has come to the fore since last year’s October 7, Hamas attacks. Iran was further incensed by Israel’s decision to invade Lebanon to target the militant outfit Hezbollah. Both Hamas and Hezbollah enjoy a strong backing from the Islamic regime of Iran. This has hardly deterred the Jewish nation which went on to assassinate a number of opposing chiefs, including the Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh and the Hezbollah head Hasan Nasrallah, drawing the ire of Iran.
Post the missile attack on Israel, Iran’s foreign minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi in a televised speech advised against any retaliation on Iranian infrastructure and warned that any such effort would be met with an even stronger response. “We recommend the Zionist regime (Israel) not to test the resolution of the Islamic Republic. If any attack against our country takes place, our response will be more powerful, our enemies know what kind of targets inside the Zionist Regime (Israel) are in our reach.” Araghchi said.
Iran’s Nuclear Programme
Iran has a very intense and powerful missile programme making it one of the most dangerous countries in the world. Over the years Iran has also taken in to account how the US, and Israel managed to deal with Saddam Hussein and his efforts to develop weapons of mass destruction. Iran has focused it efforts on protecting its assets against the US’ bunker busting weapons.
Unlike Iraq’s desert terrain Iran is a mountainous region which is far more conducive to maintain and protect nuclear facilities. Iran is also much larger than Iraq and has quite shrewdly dispersed its nuclear program across the country. Many significant targets in Iran are also hard to locate, especially those associated with the development of nuclear capabilities. Iran has further reinforced its bunkers taking them even deeper underground, making it extremely difficult to locate and target the facilities.
Israel and the USA have always held reservations about Iran’s nuclear capabilities and its future strategy for the same. They have always considered it as an authoritative pariah regime, while crippling it with sanctions. Iran’s direct missile attacks on Israel means that the Islamic regime is ready to take the risk and turn up the heat considerably to deter its rivals.
Israel’s Defence Minister to visit USA
Meanwhile, The U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin will meet with his Israeli counterpart, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, at the Pentagon on Wednesday as the U.S. ally mulls on its response to last week’s Iranian missile attack. The visit is Gallant’s third to Washington, D.C., since Hamas attacked Israel a year ago. The two leaders will further discuss ongoing security developments in the Middle East, Pentagon press secretary Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder informed reporters.
Communication between Biden administration officials and Gallant have taken place far more frequently than with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has had a strained relationship with President Biden since the start of the war. The two have not spoken in nearly 50 days. Tensions between the two leaders as of late center around Netanyahu’s rejection of a plan for a 21-day cease-fire between Israel and Hezbollah, coordinated by the U.S. and France and proposed last month.
Austin had called Gallant on Sunday to once again offer the United States’s unwavering commitment to Israel’s security. “Secretary Austin noted that tomorrow marks one year since Hamas perpetrated the worst terrorist attack against Israel in its history, and he reiterated unwavering U.S. commitment to Israel’s security, a ceasefire in Gaza, and a diplomatic resolution that enables citizens to return safely to their homes on both sides of the Israel-Lebanon border,” a statement read.
Response in the USA
President Joe Biden only a few days back had said that he will not support an Israeli strike on sites related to Tehran’s nuclear program in response to Iran’s missile attack on Israel. “The answer is no,” Biden told reporters when asked if he would support such retaliation after Iran fired about 180 missiles at Israel on Tuesday.
Biden’s comments came after he and a group of Seven leaders from Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the United Kingdom spoke by telephone about coordinating new sanctions against Iran. The U.S. and allies are scrambling to keep the Mideast conflict limited, and vying for any available options for a ceasefire. They have been urging Israel to show restraint while it weighs its retaliatory response against Iran for the missile attack.
On the other hand former President and current Republican Presidential candidate Donald Trump has said that he believes Israel should strike Iran’s nuclear facilities in response to the Islamic republic’s missile barrage. “When they asked him that question, the answer should have been, hit the nuclear first, and worry about the rest later,” Trump said.
It remains to be seen whether the Islamic regime of Iran is actually testing nuclear weapons, and if so what will be the response of Israel and its allies. One thing is for sure, the fire in the middle east is in no mood to die down, infact the threat of a potentially devastating nuclear confrontation draws ever closer.
