Immediately after the Lok Sabha elections, by-elections are to be held for two assembly seats in Kerala, and all eyes are on Palakkad. This could be a significant opportunity for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to elect an MLA in the state for only the second time. Previously, in 2016, the party’s veteran leader O Rajagopal had registered a historic victory from Nemom.
BJP’s Prospects
The BJP’s chances of winning in Palakkad are considered higher because the party and its ideological patron, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), have a strong influence here. The party’s performance in the last two assembly elections has also been quite good.
Need for By-election
This by-election has become necessary due to the victory of Congress’ current MLA Shafi Parambil from Vadakara in the recently concluded Lok Sabha elections. BJP had secured second place in Palakkad in both 2021 and 2016, pushing the Communist Party of India (Marxist) candidates to third place.
2021 and 2016 Elections
The 2021 election was very close. Parambil defeated BJP’s ‘Metro Man’ E Sreedharan by a margin of only 3,859 votes. Congress had received a 38.06 percent vote share, while BJP got 35.34 percent and CPI(M) 25.64 percent. In 2016, the gap between second-placed BJP and CPI(M) was even smaller. Congress had won with a 41.77 percent vote share, while BJP got 29.08 percent and CPI(M) 28.07 percent.
2024 Lok Sabha Elections
In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, BJP again came second. Congress candidate V K Sreekandan received 52,779 votes, while BJP’s C Krishnakumar got 43,072 votes. CPI(M)’s A Vijayaraghavan received 34,640 votes.
Potential Candidates
BJP has not yet selected a candidate for the by-election, but there is talk that the party might field C Krishnakumar or Shobha Surendran. Shobha had contested from Palakkad in 2016 and significantly increased the party’s vote share in Alappuzha. The name of Padmaja Venugopal, sister of Congress leader K Muraleedharan and daughter of former Chief Minister K Karunakaran, is also in discussion. She has recently joined the party.
Challenges and Strategy
Although BJP’s position looks good, everything is not easy. A political analyst said, “The biggest challenge for BJP is the consolidation of minority votes, especially Muslim votes, in favor of Congress. They are about 25-28 percent of the population. The Christian community is 8-10 percent.
“In the last election, BJP got a lot of votes due to Sreedharan’s personal image. With him not contesting, this factor won’t be there this time. Therefore, for BJP to move from second place to winning position, it’s crucial to attract Hindu votes from CPI(M). The Ezhava community, which is a major supporter of CPI(M), constitutes about 30 percent of the population.
“Across the state, Hindu votes are moving from CPI(M) to BJP, but more is needed. This is the area the party will need to work on.”
Thoughts on Potential Candidates
The analyst said, “It would be better for the party to present a new face because voters are tired of Krishnakumar. As for Shobha Surendran, it might be better for her to focus on Alappuzha. She could contest from Kayamkulam, where the party has performed well.
“I would like to see someone like Sandeep Warrier. He is from this area and is also known as the party spokesperson. Also, he comes from a high caste, which fits into the caste equation of this seat, where there is a good number of Tamil Brahmins and Nairs.”
Congress’ Potential Candidates
Congress might field Rahul Mamkootathil, who is the president of the state Youth Congress. However, there are also speculations that V T Balram might be fielded, who was elected twice as an MLA from Thrithala in Palakkad district. In the 2021 election, he lost to CPI(M)’s M B Rajesh.
Electoral Scenario
The analyst said, “The good thing for BJP is that unlike most parts of Kerala, here the election is seen as a Congress versus BJP fight. The Left is not considered a contender here, as they have been in third place for the last two times.”
“Even though BJP’s performance may not have been good at the national level, their image in Kerala is of achieving something extraordinary. I believe this will definitely help,” Thus, the Palakkad by-election will not only determine BJP’s prospects in Kerala but could also mark the beginning of a new chapter in the state’s politics.
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