UP By-Election 2022: The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has developed a taste for winning electoral seats in the citadels of their political opponents. The party has recently scored a victory in Amethi, a long-held bastion of the Congress Party. The seat had been held by Rahul Gandhi until 2019. This success has energized and motivated BJP to work even harder for more such victories.
The important by-election for Yadav Family
An important political tussle is taking place in the constituency of Mulayam Singh Yadav. The former Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh and founder of the Samajwadi Party (SP) had won this Mainpuri seat five times since 1996, including the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. Now, it will be very interesting to watch whether Dimple Yadav, his daughter-in-law, retains the family’s stronghold.
This is the first electoral test for the SP since the Lok Sabha elections of 2019 and a victory with a thumping majority is essential to maintain the party’s hold in the region. Its main rival, BJP, has chosen Raghuraj Singh Shakya, a former Member of Parliament, to represent them. He had previously fostered a strong relationship with Shivpal Singh Yadav, the leader of the Pragatisheel Samajwadi Party and the uncle of Akhilesh Yadav.
The UP By-Election 2022 is seen as a litmus test for the SP. Mainpuri is a key factor in determining the political landscape in Uttar Pradesh. If BJP wins the seat, it will be a big indicator of the Yogi-Modi pair’s popularity in the region. The result of this poll will also provide a metric of SP’s influence in its cave.
UP By-Election 2022: Why BJP has chances to win the Mainpuri Seat
Following Lt. Mulayam Singh Yadav’s departure, the people of Mainpuri were expecting Shiv Pal Yadav to take his place. However, SP’s president Akhilesh Yadav chose to nominate his wife instead of his uncle. The voters of Mainpuri may get displeased with this decision.
Shiv Pal Yadav has considerable clout and backing among the people of his family’s hometown of Saifai and Jaswant Nagar. These constituents could prove to be a thorn in the side of Akhilesh Yadav and his brethren.
SP is already losing its clout in key constituencies of Mainpuri. Jaiveer Singh Bhaduria, the BJP MLA and current minister in the UP government defeated the two-time incumbent MLA Raju Yadav on the Mainpuri Sadar Vidhan Sabha seat.
While BJP gained traction at Mainpuri Sadar in UP By-Election 2022, Bhongaon is under its grip from 2017 itself. Ram Naresh Agnihotri of BJP has been representing the Bhongaon constituency of the Mainpuri district since Yogi came to power.
The duel between SP and BJP has not left any space for Mayawati to field her candidate. The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) not contesting this election will be beneficial for the BJP. The Dalit vote is likely to be diverted toward the BJP, and the non-Yadav OBC voters are also expected to gravitate toward BJP’s candidates, a trend which is visible across UP.
For the first time in 26 years, Mainpuri Sadar, Bhongaon, Saifai, and Jaswant Nagar are not turning out to be happy-hunting grounds for the Yadav clan.
The fear of loss has already sent SP towards accusing other parties of foul play. SP leaders and workers in Mainpuri have accused polling booth officers of working against their interests. It seems that they are already foreseeing a potential defeat in the region.
Going by their mud-slinging before vote-counting, SP is likely to even blame the Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs). This is time tested strategy of every losing party in Indian elections since 2014.
The outcome of the upcoming by-election in Mainpuri will be a major indicator of the relative strength of the BJP and SP parties. If the BJP is victorious, it will be a major blow to the SP, who recently lost their stronghold in Azamgarh. We will know the results of this crucial election on December 8, 2022. Until then, all we can do is wait and watch the political action unfolding in Uttar Pradesh.
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