Gujarat Elections: The semi-finals to the 2024 general elections would be played in Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah’s home bastion, Gujarat. Although, the Modi-Shah duo have emerged as the undisputed champions of Indian politics, will BJP be able to save its bastions? And which community will act as the kingmaker this time?
What Does the current composition look like?
If we look at the current composition of the state assembly, the Bhartiya Janata Party stands strong with 99 MLAs in the house, the Congress has 79. In the 2017 elections, the BJP had come down from 115 to 99, crossing the majority mark of 92 with a very narrow margin. Congress however, maintained the 2012 tally, and only grew to 77 from 61.
As per the latest announcement by the Election Commission of India, Gujarat will vote on December 1 and December 5, while the counting will be done on December 8.
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Patels and Gujarat Elections
The incumbent Bhartiya Janata Party has proposed chief minister Bhupendra Patel as the candidate for Ghatlodia constituency, thus ensuring that BJP once again will go with a Patel for the CM post. Patels aka Patidars account for 15 per cent of the population of the state and are the dominant population.
Patels are the traditional agrarian community divided into two main categories Leuvas and Kedwas. The Leuvas have rallied behind the Modi-Shah duo since the inception of their leadership and have been a core vote bank of the BJP. For the community of Kadawa Patel, it had shifted to Congress in the 2017 elections. This is clan to which Hardik Patel belongs. Hardik Patel has inflicted utmost damage to the Congress, the reason enough for Kadawa to shift back to the BJP. There are almost 70 seats in the state that are under major influence of the Patels, which seems secured for the BJP.
Tribals will decide the fate of Gujarat
The Bhartiya Janata Party has set a high target for itself this time. It aims at winning more than 149 seats and that too with a record margin. Since the Patidar belt seems secure, the eyes are now on the Tribal belt.
Tribals account for more than 15 per cent of the total population of Gujarat, which means one-seventh of the state population is Adivasi. The population might look average but there are 27 ST reserved seats in the state.
In addition to that, the ST population has a crucial influence over 50 seats, and their strength adds to their influence. The Bhartiya Janata Party is out to secure the last bastion, that is the tribal belt to fulfil its magic number.
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BJP is securing the Tribal bastion
In the last elections, BJP could just score 9 out of 27 seats, whereas 16 seats were won by the Congress party. Although, the vote share has been neck to neck with the Congress party and since then the BJP has been enhancing its prospects.
The saffron party has devised several outreach schemes to reach the tribal population including door to door campaign. Just prior to the election, the BJP launched the Gujarat Gaurav Yatra which focused on tribal districts of Gujarat. The Gujarat Gaurav Yatra has a history of benefitting the BJP, be it 2002, when BJP won 127 out of 182 seats or in 2017, when it won 99 seats.
The election of Droupadi Murmu as the President of India is also being considered as an important step in mainstreaming long overdue Adivasi representation.
Recently, Prime Minister Modi himself visited Mangarh Dham in Rajasthan, a place revered by tribal people across that nation. He paid tribute to 1500 people of the Bhil tribe who were massacred by the British Army in the Mangarh Hills on November 17, 1913, often referred to as ‘Adivasi Jallianwala’. The visit was seen as a major tribal outreach program that will enhance the party’s prospects not only in Gujarat but also Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh.
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