The Russian invasion of Ukraine shows how tough leaders can pursue their geopolitical and Strategic ambitions, regardless of global pressure. Russian President Vladimir Putin had certain geopolitical objectives to achieve and he pursued them without caring much about Western propaganda.
So, can India take back PoK? Well, for starters, PoK and Donbas are different. And yes, Pakistan isn’t Ukraine either. So, here we tell you what will go in India’s favour if India tries to recapture PoK and what will go against India.
What goes in India’s favour?
1. PoK is ours
Now, this is the most important part. When Putin decided to launch an invasion into Ukraine, he decided to capture the Donbas region. The basis of Moscow’s claim is the desire of Luhansk and Donetsk provinces to sever themselves from Ukraine, and a Russian-speaking population in the region.
It isn’t as if Donbas was Russian territory. At the end of the day, the status quo was altered. But if India recaptured PoK, India will be restoring the status quo ante. PoK is an integral part of India and it is Pakistan that had illegally occupied this part of India. So, New Delhi reserves the right to flush out Pakistani occupiers from PoK.
India can therefore limit any diplomatic outrage that follows such a military operation.
2. Superior military
India is one of the biggest military powers on the planet. It also has a lot of experience in high-altitude warfare, which will further help it in mounting pressure on Pakistani troops.
Also, India has defeated Pakistan several times on the battlefield. So, Pakistan’s military forces aren’t an obstacle for India.
3. Economic strength
Presently, India is the fastest-growing major economy in the world. Pakistan, on the other hand, shows no signs of healthy growth. Islamabad is losing out on its Arab godfathers too.
If India and Pakistan were to lock horns, New Delhi will be able to foot the bill of the war. But Pakistan will run out of money very quickly. Ultimately, Islamabad will face domestic pressure to surrender before India and sign a peace treaty on India’s terms.
4. Tactical advantage
As India proved during the surgical strikes in 2016 and the Balakot airstrikes in 2019, its military forces can sneak into Pakistan-held territory and target Islamabad-backed terror camps.
While recapturing PoK, India will have to target Pakistan’s military infrastructure in the region. Yet, in any case, India has demonstrated the capability to go undetected and surprise Pakistan’s military with sudden manoeuvres.
What goes against India?
1. Pakistan is a nuclear power
When Russia invaded Ukraine, the latter seemed clueless. Ukraine’s military strength didn’t match Russian firepower. And on top of it, Ukraine isn’t a nuclear power. So, Russian forces could easily invade it.
But Pakistan is a nuclear power. And this always creates the shadow of a devastating nuclear war. This is the main reason why recapturing PoK becomes a highly sensitive military operation.
2. The Chinese angle
It is unlikely that China will send its troops to help Pakistan. However, in case an Indo-Pakistan war breaks out, China could prolong it by supplying money, ammunition and arms to Pakistan.
A two-front war isn’t going to happen, because China won’t put itself at stake for Islamabad. However, China could try to make the war more expensive and time-consuming for India.
3. Western pressure
There is a strong Pakistan lobby in the United States of America. And it is particularly strong with the Democrats. Incumbent US President Joe Biden himself has had a close relationship with Pakistan.
Now, let’s face it- India is too big an ally for the West to lose over Pakistan. So, if India launches a military operation to recapture PoK, the US or the EU will not make the threat of a sanction unlike what they are doing to Russia.
However, what the West will do is mount diplomatic pressure and try to de-escalate things before India concludes its military operations to recapture PoK.
Therefore, any Indian attempt to take back PoK has to be swift and flawless. It will have to conclude successfully before the Western diplomats can spring into action and mount any diplomatic pressure on India.
If Russia can invade Ukraine, India can take back PoK. But then there are some factors that the country will have to keep in mind.