The Aam Aadmi Party is confident it will win Punjab. But will it? On social media, many have already declared the party a winner in the border state, which is witnessing an unprecedented four-way fight. Does AAP have it in it to win an entire state – all on its own? Sure, it might put up a good fight. Its seat share will most likely increase as well. In 2017, Aam Aadmi Party had won 20 seats. It was a stunning performance by a party that had just entered Punjab. AAP displaced the Shiromani Akali Dal to become the second-largest party in the state assembly.
Could it be that AAP has maxed out already? AAP has been campaigning in Punjab for pretty much one year now. It is determined to win the state. But a lot of equations are going to spoil the party for Arvind Kejriwal. A lot for the party is also riding on how it performs in Punjab’s Malwa. Unless AAP sweeps Malwa, it is not forming the next government in Punjab.
The four-way fight in Punjab between the Congress, AAP, SAD-BSP alliance and BJP-PLC alliance will most probably throw up a hung house. And then, there is also the Samyukt Samaj Party – comprising of the various farm unions, which can play spoilsport for the Aam Aadmi Party. AAP is banking heavily on Jatt Sikhs this time. And SSP promises to cut such votes away from AAP.
Besides, there are four other big reasons why AAP might be in for a big surprise in Punjab.
- Bhagwant Mann is a Jatt, but he is not really chief ministerial material. He has no qualities of leading a state like Punjab. And to top it all, Bhagwant Mann has an alcohol dependency problem. By all estimates, Arvind Kejriwal and many others within the party do not want Mann to be AAP’s chief ministerial face in Punjab. Yet, he is the tallest AAP leader in the state, and ignoring him would translate into a pre-poll organisational decimation for the party.
- Youth support for Aam Aadmi Party is being exaggerated, mostly by its own IT cell. AAP is fighting the election in Punjab with perception. AAP’s X-factor has always been the youth, but that is not really an assured mainstay for the party in Punjab any longer. The party wants to convince the people of Punjab that it is winning the elections, and so, they should not vote for anybody else as they’d be wasting their vote. In a state like Punjab, where people don’t like being told what to do, such a strategy could tremendously backfire.
- Hindus are not going to vote for the Aam Aadmi Party. While Kejriwal talks about 84, he conveniently chooses to ignore the years which preceded 1984. Hindus in Punjab face the minority complex, which is why they will vote for safety. Arvind Kejriwal hardly motivates any confidence among the state’s Hindus, who will vote for either the Congress, or BJP-PLC combine.
Read more: Punjab’s four-way contest presents a huge window of opportunity for the BJP
- AAP will be a vote cutter for Congress and SAD. Arvind Kejriwal can make a party lose in Punjab, but he cannot make his party win an entire assembly. He simply does not have the resources needed to make that possible.
With just a month left for the elections, there is no way Aam Aadmi Party will be able to address these issues and stage an impressive performance all on its own. And then, in 2017 as well, AAP had made a big impression on social media that it was set to sweep the state. Yet, it was sent packing with 20 seats alone. This time too, a similar fate awaits the party in Punjab.
A hung assembly is a likely outcome following which the real gambling will begin with all parties desiring to isolate the BJP by allying with eachother against it. Of course BJP is unlikely to show any kind of convincing performance as has been its history in Punjab. Sad but true given how the parched state will actually benefit a lot in terms of all round development under the BJP.
AAP does appear to have an upper hand given how it still shows itself as an untested party in the state. People of Punjab are showing visible signs of fatigue from consecutive corrupt ruling by the Congress & SAD. Of course the state isn’t going to improve one bit under the AAP and will only continue to go down the hell hole further given how the party has been unable to show any kind of credible improvement in Delhi. The party will only render the state poorer & more debt ridden with its stone aged ideology of socialism & freebies culture!
The naxalite, maoist infested SKM will ally with AAP as stated by the organisation itself, so there’s likely no question of it eating into AAP’s votes. Sufferers will be Congress & SAD.
Let’s not forget the invisible insidious forces of ISI backed khalistanis & rice bag missionaries that can likely influence the voting patterns! Both entities have a lot of money to invest in those parties that’ll agree to patronise their traitorous ambitions.
It’s safe to say Punjab will see the light only if BJP rules it. Any other party is a gone case for it.
Just like Delhi, Punjab is a pipe dream for BJP. Rather than focussing on winning election, BJP should use it’s large fan base, man power to work on the ground, raise issues and highlight every single disappointment from common man. Punjab is a border state with all kind of issues from drugs, religious conversions, security breaches, Khalistani uprising, etc. But what Congress did was to bring farmers to the forefront to hide behind them to sweep main issues under the carpet. 100% Congress was going to be wiped off otherwise.
We can agree and dissagree with the article here but “SKM is maoist and naxalite”, “isi backed khalistanis and rice bag missionaries influence voting”? What in the world you are drinking? You must be yourself influenced by some party’s machinery to throw such comments. Also co ing to BJP, they had been ruling many states for many terms, yet we can see they are no different from how others do. MP, uttrakhand, rajsthan , chattisgarh, haryana, there are countless examples of bjp govt we have seen which doesnt deliver on whats it says to masses.
I agree that bhagwant maan isnt a CM type face and I personally have very little expectations from him. many punjabi people seem to have good impression of him, but will they vote to choose mann as their CM will be challange for the party. Mr, Channi seems like a decent humble guy, but 5 yrs of congress were not too good either. So its a test for Punjab voters who they trust the most. On coming to BJP, they ware not promising anything in punjab and people will very unlikely go for them. Few votes here and there are expected.