As the exodus from the TMC continues to be on the upswing, the fact that even sitting Ministers are resigning will surely be keeping West Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee up at nights. After Suvendhu Adhikari, even Rajib Banerjee, the ex-Transport Minister of West Bengal switched over to the BJP. The recent developments could only signal one thing – an emphatic victory for the BJP in the upcoming Assembly elections as history is a witness to the fact that sitting ministers only switch parties when they are sure that the incumbent Mamata government is going to lose power.
After weeks of expressing his disgruntlement against a section of TMC leaders, Rajib Banerjee finally took the plunge by joining the BJP. He was joined by a string of TMC legislators and leaders.
The defection of a leader is understandable, of a legislator can be put to higher ambitions and the desire to be a Minister, however, the defection of a sitting Minister only means that TMC is resigned to a heavy defeat. In the past few weeks, TMC has witnessed two of its Ministers and heavyweights – Suvendhu Adhikari and Rajib Banerjee switch over to the BJP with likely many more in the pipeline. Such is the charisma of Adhikari and Banerjee that both have attracted a battery of TMC leaders into the BJP.
Moreover, the saffron wave in Bengal is even turning some senior TMC leaders against Mamata Banerjee’s nephew Abhishek Banerjee, who is believed to be the successor to the CM Chair of Bengal. Though many of the TMC leaders do not believe the fact, yet BJP gaining popularity in the state is ensuring a divide in the incumbent government. In his statement, Union Minister Amit Shah had recently targeted Mamata for sidelining other TMC leaders. He said, “I have told Rajib Banerjee that the BJP will form a majority government in Bengal. I promise to eradicate Trinamool Congress government in Bengal. There is no agenda in the Mamata Banerjee-led government but to make her nephew the next chief minister.”
The BJP shocked everyone by winning 18 seats and cornering a 40.64% vote share in the Lok Sabha Elections of 2019 and if one extrapolates the data, it would amount to 128 seats in the West Bengal Assembly of 294 seats.
The importance of TMC leaders like Suvendu Adhikari when it comes to Bengal politics is enormous. Adhikari is believed to hold sway in 35 Assembly seats which may well prove to be decisive come the elections. He also played a key role in the Nandigram movement in 2007 which eventually ended the three-decade rule of the Left thereby becoming Mamata’s apple of the eye.
Since then he went from strength to strength and has a proven track record of winning be it the Assembly or the Lok Sabha elections. Over the years he has extended his clout beyond his home district of Purba Medinipur to Jangalmahal — Bankura, Purulia, and Paschim Medinipur districts.
Couple the recent developments with the Owaisi factor which is all set to chip away with TMC’s core voter base, the minority electorate especially after AIMIM’s expected alliance with influential Furfura Sharif cleric Abbas Siddiqui.
Siddiqui’s decision to enter the electoral fray is much more important than Owaisi’s entry in West Bengal as the Furfura Sharif holds sway in at least 90 seats spread across the districts of Malda, Murshidabad, south 24 Paraganas, Howrah and Hoogly.
It seems that the ex-TMC trio of Mukul Roy – Suvendu Adhikari – Rajib Banerjee have sensed the political churn taking place in West Bengal and are all set to deliver the state for the BJP. Moreover, important leaders leaving the party ahead of the election proves that sitting ministers only switch parties when they are sure that the incumbent government is going to lose power.
