The Bihar assembly election was conducted in three phases with the first on 28 October 2020 for 71 seats, second phase on 3 November for 94 seats, and the third phase on 7 November for 78 seats. The state went into polls region wise with South Bihar in the first phase, Central Bihar in the second phase, and North Bihar or Mithila region in the third phase. But, why is the writer telling you these irrelevant details?
Well, these details become relevant once we know that the results of the election were heavily influenced by the phases. In the constituencies where the election was held in the first phase, NDA performed poorly and the alliance lost to Mahagathbandhan in the South Bihar.
In the constituencies where the election was held in the second phase, both parties performed well and one can argue that results were win-win for both the alliance in central Bihar. So, the constituencies where the election was held in the third phase held key to final results.
The Mithilanchal region, which has a heavy concentration of Muslim and Yadav voters, and is also the most backward region of the state, went to polls in the third phase. The Seemanchal region, a sub-region of the state, comprises Kishanganj, Purnea, Araria and Katihar, has a heavy presence of Muslims. The Kosi region, comprising Saharsa and Madhepura has the Yadavs, the core constituency of RJD. Mithila region comprising Darbhanga and Madhubani too has more than 20% Muslim population.
Given the fact Yadavs and Muslims are the core vote bank of the RJD, Mahagathbandhan was expected to perform excellently on the 78 seats that went into the election in the third phase. However, the party could not win even half of the seats that were contested in the third phase and NDA maintained the lead in Kosi and Seemanchal sub-region. Of the 24 seats in the Seemanchal region, NDA won 9 seats while it expected to win none. Similarly in Kosi and Mithila sub-region, NDA candidates like Alok Ranjan, Sanjay Saraogi, Madan Sahni won due to division of votes among opposition parties.
It seems many factors worked in favour of NDA and against MGB. First being the rallies by PM Modi who campaigned on the Hindutva plank in the region and said, “Ye log Jai Shri Ram bhi sunana pasand nahin karte. Bharat Mata ke virodhi ek ho rahein hain, ek ho kar vote maang rahe hain (‘These people don’t like to hear Jai Shri Ram. The opponents of Bharat Mata have united and are seeking votes’).”
The second was the division of MGB votes. Apart from NDA and Mahagathbandhan, Grand Democratic Secular Front which comprised AIMIM, BSP, and RLSP; Progressive Democratic Alliance which comprised Social Democratic Party of India- the political wing of PFI- were fighting and many other smaller alliances and parties were fighting in the election with most of them focused on the Seemanchal and Kosi region. The votes were divided among the smaller parties and alliances which led to the victory of BJP and JD(U) on many seats, and even AIMIM won on 5 seats.
Too much attention was given to LJP potential to damage JD U and not enough ground reports on AIMIM potential to do serious damage to MGB in last phase
— Saba Naqvi (@_sabanaqvi) November 10, 2020
The third reason might be the prohibition of alcohol which probably led to a large number of female votes to NDA, given the fact, female turnout in the second and third phase was higher compared to male votes.
The fourth reason was the complacency of MGB which did not campaign much in the region as it took the Muslim and Yadav voters for granted. Congress, the worst performer in the MGB, which won only 19 seats out of 70 it contested, lost many seats in the region.
The hegemony of RJD-Congress on Muslim Yadav vote bank was broken by NDA with some help from parties like AIMIM and few other factors like a campaign by PM Modi, alcohol prohibition and development schemes. This goes on to prove that AIMIM is the biggest opponent of the ‘secular’ parties across the country.
