In what can be described as a sharp turn of events in the heightened tensions between Iran and the US following the killing of Iranian General Qassim Suleimani by the US, Beijing has expressed its readiness to provide military assistance to Iraq if required. Iraq Prime Minister Adil Abdul-Mahdi al-Muntafiki hosted China’s Ambassador to Iraq, Zhang Tao who in turn conveyed the Dragon’s readiness to provide military assistance.
#Iraq|i Prime Minister @AdilAbdAlMahdi hosted #China’s ambassador to Iraq earlier today. Zhang Tao conveyed Beijing’s readiness to provide military assistance if required.
China have been looking for a foothold in the Middle East for a while… pic.twitter.com/xUf1DeGqdH
— Aurora Intel (@AuroraIntel) January 6, 2020
This development has aggravated the speculations and concerns of the region becoming the venue of a third World War following the airstrikes carried out by the US. This is a stark reminder of how close the US has come to having major confrontations with other superpowers. Even Russia stands emboldened after the victories it has had in Syria. Though the US may remain in denial mode, Russia, backing the Assad regime, had achieved its objectives in Syria after the withdrawal of US troops. Moscow emerged as the ultimate power broker in the region made full use of its position by brokering a deal between the Assad regime and the Kurds.
Now, with Iran, the US has again entered a major confrontation with a superpower, China in this case. And with the entry of Beijing, the situation looks that much more delicate in the region. Iran, which is a major player directly involved in this confrontation is also holding no back. Iranian Defence Minister Amir Hatami said, “A crushing revenge will be taken for Soleimani’s unjust assassination… We will take revenge from all those involved and responsible for his assassination”. Iranian President Hassan Rouhani also said, “Soleimani’s martyrdom will make Iran more decisive to resist America’s expansionism and to defend our Islamic values.”
The polarisation of the crucial superpowers and powers also seems to be setting in. UNSC members apart from Russia and the US, viz. the UK, France and Germany look reluctant to enter the potential conflict but will take the side of the US in all probability. Even though the European leaders have called upon all sides to show restraint, and the UK Prime Minister, Boris Johnson even tried to find a diplomatic solution after talking to the Iraqi PM, these countries will side with the US in case there is a likely escalation in the rising tensions between Iran and the US. Saudi Arabia, Israel and the UAE will also side with the US. Though Israel maintains that airstrikes resulting in Soleimani’s killing had been carried out by the US, and Israel was not in any way involved, the fact remains that Israel considers Iran an existential threat as Iran has been supporting the Palestinian militant groups. In fact, Israel has already got embroiled in the potential confrontation with Iran warning that it will ‘set ablaze to place America loves’ in a direct reference to Israel.
As far as Saudi Arabia is concerned, Bahrain is expected to be the next target of Iran in response to Soleimani’s killing. Bahrain, a country with 49% Shia population ruled by a Sunni monarchy that finds limitless support from Saudi Arabia. Therefore, Bahrain is likely to be the first target of Iran, that will directly drag Saudi Arabia into the military confrontation.
As far as Iran is concerned, the Shiite country obviously finds support in Iraq. General Soleimani, whose killing seems to flare up tensions enjoyed the devoted loyalty of thousands of fighters across Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen and the Gaza Strip. Iraq has been influenced by Iran, something that has also irked the US which could not gain foothold in the country despite the assassination of Saddam Hussein. Iraq has shown signs of getting involved directly in the conflict even as its Parliament passed a resolution calling upon the government to expel foreign troops from the country after the strikes carried out by the US resulted in the killing of the Iranian General and an Iraqi armed group leader in Baghdad.
The US wants Pakistan’s support in the region but the latter won’t support the US unless it gets access to US aid. Therefore, we can expect Pakistan’s support to the US only in case of resumption of aid.
Russia, a friend of Iran too shall take Iran’s side even as the region stares into a major escalation in the ongoing tensions. It may even join the war in case of future escalations. Syria often described as the “closest ally” of Iran too would join hands with Iran if things were to escalate further from here. Iran has been supporting the Assad regime in Syria, which has been battling a fierce anti-government uprising since 2011. Syria and Iran, in fact, form the core of the “axis of the resistance”, an alliance of powers in the region to counter Western hegemony.
Iran also finds support in Lebanon where it had established Hezbollah, an armed political group in the 1980s to counter Israel. Hezbollah carried out an 18-year guerrilla war against the Israeli forces. The group still has an extensive arsenal and will side with Iran in case of a military confrontation. Within the region, Iran’s allies are going to be predominantly Shiite countries such as Yemen’s Houthis. However, Turkey too could side with Iran especially in context of its unlikely alliance that has developed in the recent past, especially after Turkey’s invasion of Syria.
With a clear polarisation of powers in the region, the battleground of the prospective conflict is also becoming amply clear. As stated earlier, the first point of escalation could be Bahrain, which given the majority Shia population and a Sunni dispensation, becomes a rich target for Iran. Other venues will be Iraq, Lebanon, Syria and Yemen, all Shia dominated regions where Iran carries huge influence in the form of proxy wars that it has wages in those countries.
India meanwhile is another major player, which has interests in Iran and at the same time shares a very close relationship with the US and strategic ties with Israel. While it shares close defence ties with Israel and a very close working relationship with the US, India has ambitions of finding a direct land route into the Middle East and the European countries. The Chabahar port in Iran is critical to India’s ambitions in the region. Till only very recently, India was also dependent on Iran for its oil imports and any confrontation in the region might end up choking the Strait of Hormuz that will end up shooting the oil prices, which can be extremely detrimental to the Indian economy. India’s objectives lie in de-escalation, and this is the role that India will play in all certainty which is that of a pacifist.
India already seems to be moving in that direction given that New Delhi did not impose sanctions on Iran after the US reinstated economic sanctions on the Shiite country. Even the European Union imposed sanctions on Iran, but India continues to share close ties with Iran. This, therefore, shows how India stands in the position of being the principal pacifier in case there is a likely escalation leading into a war involving several superpowers in direct military conflict.
