TFIPOST हिन्दी
TFIPOST Global
Tfipost.com
Tfipost.com
No Result
View All Result
  • Premium
  • Politics
    • All
    • Analysis
    • Opinions
    • Trending
    Centre Withholds Travel Nod for US Conference

    No Go for Priyank Kharge: Centre Withholds Travel Nod for US Conference

    Akhilesh Yadav

    Akhilesh Yadav Promises Unity in UP, But INDIA Bloc Still Struggles to Stay Together

    Air India flights getting cancelled after Ahmedabad plane crash

    After Ahmedabad Crash, several Air India Flights Face Technical Issues

    AAP's appeasement politics to Khalistani elements

    ‘AAP Is Repeating Indira’s Dangerous Khalistani Appeasement Tactics in Punjab’

    • Analysis
    • Opinions
    • Trending
  • Economy
    • All
    • Business
    • Economy1
    • Finance
    real estate

    US Firms Hit All-Time High in Office Space Leasing Across India: Report

    PM Narendra Modia

    11 Years of Modi Govt: Making Welfare Seamless with Direct Benefit Transfers, DigiLocker, UMANG

    India Ranks 2nd Globally in Social Security Coverage for the Poor, Says ILO

    India Ranks 2nd Globally in Social Security Coverage for the Poor, Says ILO

    real estate

    India Retains Top Spot Among Global Investment Hubs for Land and Development Projects

    • Business
    • Finance
  • Defense
    • All
    • Defence
    • Strategy
    • Weaponry
    reliance infrastructure in strategic partnership

    Reliance Infrastructure and Dassault Aviation Expand Falcon Jet Manufacturing to India

    congress leader likens operation sindoor to a computer game

    Congress’ Patole terms Operation Sindoor as ‘Video Game’, Sparks Controversy

    India-Russia Pact on the Su‑57 as a Leap of Strategic Trust

    From Buyer to Partner: What the Su‑57 Means for India’s Military Autonomy Inside Russia’s Su‑57 Gamble with India

    Dassault and Tata to Begin Rafale Fuselage Production in India

    Dassault and Tata to Begin Rafale Fuselage Production in India, Marking Major Milestone in Defence Manufacturing

    • Defence
    • Strategy
    • Weaponry
  • Geopolitics
    • All
    • Africa
    • Americas
    • Asia Pacific
    • Europe
    • South Asia
    • West Asia
    PM Modi's visit may propel for India-Canada FTA

    India-Canada Diplomatic Reset: Modi and Carney Pave Way for Trade Talks

    Asim Munir Meets Trump in Washington Amid U.S. Protest and Regional Tensions

    Trump to Meet Asim Munir in Washington Amid Protests and Regional Tensions

    Pakistan-US Cooperation Against Iran Tests Notions of Islamic Solidarity

    Pakistan-US Cooperation Against Iran Tests Notions of Islamic Solidarity

    ‘No Mediation, No Trade Talk’: Modi Draws the Line in Call With Trump

    ‘No Mediation, No Trade Talk’: Modi Draws the Line in Call With Trump

    • Africa
    • Americas
    • Asia Pacific
    • Europe
    • South Asia
    • West Asia
  • Knowledge
    • All
    • Culture
    • Education
    • History
    • Indology
    jagannath rath yatra

    Everything You Need to Know About Jagannath Rath Yatra: History, Significance, Rituals, and Celebrations

    Bobby Mukkamala Becomes 1st Indian-American President of AMA

    Bobby Mukkamala Becomes First Indian-American President of the American Medical Association

    The Vedic Ethos: A Civilization of Knowledge and Inquiry

    From Rigvedic Wisdom to Modern Decay: How Islamisation Crushed a Knowledge Civilization

    Ram Mandir Pran Pratishtha 2.0

    Thousands Gather in Ayodhya for Ram Darbar Pran Pratishtha Ceremony

    • Culture
    • History
    • Indology
  • Law
  • Lounge
    • All
    • Books
    • Cinema
    • Entertainment
    • Food
    • Games
    • Health
    • Lifestyle
    • Satire
    • Sports
    • technology
    • Travel
    the world's most liveable cities in 2025

    Copenhagen Named World’s Most Liveable City for 2025, Surpassing Vienna

    Air India flights getting cancelled after Ahmedabad plane crash

    After Ahmedabad Crash, several Air India Flights Face Technical Issues

    India's quantum leap

    India’s Quantum Leap: DRDO and IIT Delhi Develop Ultra-Secure Communication

    Revolutionizing Indian Agriculture through Digital Intelligence and Data-Led Governance

    Revolutionizing Indian Agriculture through Digital Intelligence and Data-Led Governance

    • Books
    • Cinema
    • Food
    • Health
    • Sports
    • technology
    • Travel
    • Satire
Tfipost.com
  • Premium
  • Politics
    • All
    • Analysis
    • Opinions
    • Trending
    Centre Withholds Travel Nod for US Conference

    No Go for Priyank Kharge: Centre Withholds Travel Nod for US Conference

    Akhilesh Yadav

    Akhilesh Yadav Promises Unity in UP, But INDIA Bloc Still Struggles to Stay Together

    Air India flights getting cancelled after Ahmedabad plane crash

    After Ahmedabad Crash, several Air India Flights Face Technical Issues

    AAP's appeasement politics to Khalistani elements

    ‘AAP Is Repeating Indira’s Dangerous Khalistani Appeasement Tactics in Punjab’

    • Analysis
    • Opinions
    • Trending
  • Economy
    • All
    • Business
    • Economy1
    • Finance
    real estate

    US Firms Hit All-Time High in Office Space Leasing Across India: Report

    PM Narendra Modia

    11 Years of Modi Govt: Making Welfare Seamless with Direct Benefit Transfers, DigiLocker, UMANG

    India Ranks 2nd Globally in Social Security Coverage for the Poor, Says ILO

    India Ranks 2nd Globally in Social Security Coverage for the Poor, Says ILO

    real estate

    India Retains Top Spot Among Global Investment Hubs for Land and Development Projects

    • Business
    • Finance
  • Defense
    • All
    • Defence
    • Strategy
    • Weaponry
    reliance infrastructure in strategic partnership

    Reliance Infrastructure and Dassault Aviation Expand Falcon Jet Manufacturing to India

    congress leader likens operation sindoor to a computer game

    Congress’ Patole terms Operation Sindoor as ‘Video Game’, Sparks Controversy

    India-Russia Pact on the Su‑57 as a Leap of Strategic Trust

    From Buyer to Partner: What the Su‑57 Means for India’s Military Autonomy Inside Russia’s Su‑57 Gamble with India

    Dassault and Tata to Begin Rafale Fuselage Production in India

    Dassault and Tata to Begin Rafale Fuselage Production in India, Marking Major Milestone in Defence Manufacturing

    • Defence
    • Strategy
    • Weaponry
  • Geopolitics
    • All
    • Africa
    • Americas
    • Asia Pacific
    • Europe
    • South Asia
    • West Asia
    PM Modi's visit may propel for India-Canada FTA

    India-Canada Diplomatic Reset: Modi and Carney Pave Way for Trade Talks

    Asim Munir Meets Trump in Washington Amid U.S. Protest and Regional Tensions

    Trump to Meet Asim Munir in Washington Amid Protests and Regional Tensions

    Pakistan-US Cooperation Against Iran Tests Notions of Islamic Solidarity

    Pakistan-US Cooperation Against Iran Tests Notions of Islamic Solidarity

    ‘No Mediation, No Trade Talk’: Modi Draws the Line in Call With Trump

    ‘No Mediation, No Trade Talk’: Modi Draws the Line in Call With Trump

    • Africa
    • Americas
    • Asia Pacific
    • Europe
    • South Asia
    • West Asia
  • Knowledge
    • All
    • Culture
    • Education
    • History
    • Indology
    jagannath rath yatra

    Everything You Need to Know About Jagannath Rath Yatra: History, Significance, Rituals, and Celebrations

    Bobby Mukkamala Becomes 1st Indian-American President of AMA

    Bobby Mukkamala Becomes First Indian-American President of the American Medical Association

    The Vedic Ethos: A Civilization of Knowledge and Inquiry

    From Rigvedic Wisdom to Modern Decay: How Islamisation Crushed a Knowledge Civilization

    Ram Mandir Pran Pratishtha 2.0

    Thousands Gather in Ayodhya for Ram Darbar Pran Pratishtha Ceremony

    • Culture
    • History
    • Indology
  • Law
  • Lounge
    • All
    • Books
    • Cinema
    • Entertainment
    • Food
    • Games
    • Health
    • Lifestyle
    • Satire
    • Sports
    • technology
    • Travel
    the world's most liveable cities in 2025

    Copenhagen Named World’s Most Liveable City for 2025, Surpassing Vienna

    Air India flights getting cancelled after Ahmedabad plane crash

    After Ahmedabad Crash, several Air India Flights Face Technical Issues

    India's quantum leap

    India’s Quantum Leap: DRDO and IIT Delhi Develop Ultra-Secure Communication

    Revolutionizing Indian Agriculture through Digital Intelligence and Data-Led Governance

    Revolutionizing Indian Agriculture through Digital Intelligence and Data-Led Governance

    • Books
    • Cinema
    • Food
    • Health
    • Sports
    • technology
    • Travel
    • Satire
No Result
View All Result
Tfipost.com
Tfipost.com
No Result
View All Result
  • Premium
  • Politics
  • Economy
  • Defense
  • Geopolitics
  • Knowledge
  • Law
  • Lounge

Economist Surjit Bhalla exposes the biggest fault in Arvind Subramanian’s GDP estimation methodology

Amit Agrahari by Amit Agrahari
22 June 2019
in Analysis
Surjit bhalla, arvind subramanian
Share on FacebookShare on X

Almost three months back, in the month of March, Brookings Institution published a research paper which argued that China inflated growth figure for nine years.  The paper’s analysis covers the period of 2008 to 2016 and it was found that the Communist government inflated the growth figure by 2 percentage points. The study examined tax revenues to revise down the GDP growth of China. It argued that the actual size of Chinese economy is one seventh (almost 16 percent) smaller than what is being claimed by National Bureau of Statistics of China.

Almost three months after the experts questioned the growth of Chinese economy, former chief economic advisor of India Arvind Subramanian published a research paper in which he argued that India has over estimated its GDP by 2.5 percent between FY 12 to FY 17. He makes his calculations through simple cross-country statistical regression and argues that if “Motor vehicle sales are down, two-wheeler inventory are at the highest levels ever, no private investment and animal spirits have disappeared,” then it is obvious that the GDP growth is being over estimated.

RelatedPosts

Crisil Forecasts Another Rate Cut in FY26, Pegs India’s GDP Growth at 6.5%

SBI report projects strong Q4 FY25 GDP growth for India at approximately 6.4-6.5%

Sensex and Nifty Bounces Back After ‘Black Monday’ — What’s Behind the Turnaround?

Load More

In response to the claims of Arvind Subramanian, Surjit Bhalla, the globally renowned economist, has come out with an argument that if India’s GDP growth is overestimated, using the same set of data, we can conclude that the GDP of 43 countries is overestimated and 22 countries have underestimated the growth. Surjit Bhalla is the person who, along with Arvind Subramanian, led the crusade against high lending rates by RBI under Urjit Patel.

(PC: Indian Express)

Surjit Bhalla also accused Arvind Subramanian of omitting the research on other countries based on the same data.  “When I first read AS’s paper a week ago, I was struck by the absence of any discussion on the statistical possibility that his method could yield mis-estimation errors for other countries,” wrote Bhalla in an article in Indian Express, the same newspaper in which Subramanian published his study.

As per Bhalla’s findings, “Out of 89 countries, for 46 countries the AS country dummy was not significant. For 22 of these 46 countries, the individual country effect was negative — the measured GDP was less than predicted GDP, by an average 0.5 ppt; for the remaining 24 countries, measured GDP growth was above predicted growth by 0.4 ppt. The remaining 43 countries, with significant individual country effects, were almost equally divided between over-estimation (1.7 ppt) and under-estimation (1.8 ppt).”

Surjit Bhalla further argues, “Reported GDP growth for Germany in Period II was 1.3 per cent ; AS’s over-estimation number is 1.8 per cent; hence, excess GDP over reported GDP (ratio of 1.8 and 1.3) is a high 135 per cent, the highest in the world. Number 8 on the list is Bangladesh with an excess magnitude of 60 per cent; India is 16th (out of 21 countries) with an excess magnitude of 38 per cent (ratio of 2.5 and 6.7 per cent).”

In his article, Bhalla also points out that India’s growth story is waiting for some big and bold reforms on labor laws. The corporate tax rate and lending need to be brought down newly appointed finance minister need to be bold in next July 5 budget.

Arvind Subramanian’s findings have been criticized widely by other renowned economists. The Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council also came out with a comprehensive rebuttal of Subramanian’s findings recently.

Tags: arvind subramanianGDPIndian EconomySurjit Bhalla
Share201TweetSend
Previous Post

Left-liberal brigade is running a campaign to whitewash Sanjiv Bhatt’s crimes

Next Post

Vande Bharat Express running at full occupancy, to pay for itself in a year

Related Posts

what religious trends say about our future
Analysis

Islam to See Highest Population Growth Among Religions, Finds Pew Research

11 June 2025

Over the past decade, the way people around the world identify with religion has shifted in big and surprising...

Congress leader Rahul Gandhi
Analysis

Rahul Gandhi’s Maharashtra Rigging Claim: Fresh Allegations, Familiar Distrust of Institutions

7 June 2025

Congress leader Rahul Gandhi has once again made headlines by alleging electoral malpractice—this time targeting the 2024 Maharashtra Assembly...

Is Rahul Gandhi Undermining Opposition Unity with Personal Attacks on Modi?
Analysis

Narendra Surrender Jibe: Is Rahul Gandhi Undermining Opposition Unity with Personal Attacks on Modi?

4 June 2025

Congress leader Rahul Gandhi is once again under fire for a political remark that many say does more harm...

Load More

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

I agree to the Terms of use and Privacy Policy.
This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.

Currently Playing

R.P. Singh Exposes AAP: Following Indira's Model of Separatist Appeasement?

R.P. Singh Exposes AAP: Following Indira's Model of Separatist Appeasement?

00:11:04

kamakhya Devi and the Power of Menstruation: Ambubachi Mela Explained.

00:04:47

From love to murder- how five plots took down raja raghuvanshi

00:04:38

Marriage gone murderous: expert explains the gruesome murder case.

00:13:01

An Israeli tells why Israel hit Iran | Middle East Crisis |

00:33:03
Facebook Twitter Instagram Youtube
tfipostTfipost.com
Right Wing | News Analysis | Indian Opinion
  • About us
  • Careers
  • Brand Partnerships
  • Terms of use
  • Privacy Policy
  • Sitemap

©2025 TFI Media Private Limited

No Result
View All Result
  • Premium
  • Politics
    • Analysis
    • Opinions
    • Trending
  • Economy
    • Business
    • Finance
  • Defense
    • Defence
    • Strategy
    • Weaponry
  • Geopolitics
    • Africa
    • Americas
    • Asia Pacific
    • Europe
    • South Asia
    • West Asia
  • Knowledge
    • Culture
    • History
    • Indology
  • Law
  • Lounge
    • Books
    • Cinema
    • Food
    • Health
    • Sports
    • technology
    • Travel
    • Satire
TFIPOST हिन्दी
TFIPOST Global

©2025 TFI Media Private Limited