The long rule of Basar al-Assad ended on December 9, 2024, forcing Assad to flee Russia. A 13-year-long civil war ended in less than 10 days. It is being seen as the way the Taliban took over Afghanistan in 2020 when the US troops left the country. The country has seen a mixed response, with few enjoying the liberation from the brutal Assad regime and some grieving knowing the Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham ideologies.
The main rebel leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa, better known as Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, had a meeting with the incumbent Prime Minister Mohammed Jalali and Vice-President Faisal Mekdad to discuss arrangements for a transitional government, a source familiar with the discussions said.
Amid this ongoing discussion on the course of government formation, the United Nations Security Council also had a meeting behind closed doors, where they discussed the fluid situation in Syria.
Russian UN ambassador Vassili Nebenzia told reporters after the emergency meeting requested by Moscow, “The Council, I think, was more or less united on the need to preserve the territorial integrity and unity of Syria, to ensure the protection of civilians, to ensure that humanitarian aid is coming,”
Further, he added, “But look, everyone was taken by surprise by the events, everyone, including the members of the council. So we have to wait,” to see how the situation will evolve, he said.
On the question of removing the HTS from the UN-sanctioned list, he said the council has not reached at that decision yet.
Meanwhile, the discussions between the previous establishment and the rebel group are continuing to come up with an interim ruling structure, which may bring stability in Syria.
What are the Implications for the Region?
The Assad regime was well known for their brutality and putting dissent voices into prisons. The political prisoners have been released from the jails of Syria. They have been seen happily meeting with their families and running around with joy in the city. The search for hidden cells are underway and it is expected to be more hidden prisoners which has to be free.
This may have geopolitical implications for the region. These prisoners are not only people who oppose the Assad regime, but they also have people who are of actual criminal/terrorist mindset. These releases, followed by taking over the terrorist organization as a state entity may fuel terrorism in the region.
People must have remembered the increased number of terrorist attacks in South Asia just after the takeover of Kabul by the Taliban since 2020. According to South Asia terrorism Portal, the number of terrorist killings civilians in 2020 in South Asia was 497 which has increase to 1048 in 2024. It is expected that the takeover may increase the terrorist incidents in the region.
The Chinese economic involvement in west Asia has also increased in a few years. The Chinese mediated between Saudi Arabia and Iran in order to make the region peaceful to do business. However, the recent conflicts and now the Syrian takeover may halt the Chinese long aim to be involved in the region economically.
What for India?
After the taking down of Damascus, the oil prices have increased more than one percent which will have global implications for inflation. For India, the security of Indian Oil companies such as ONGC may face difficulties in operating. The share of ONGC has fallen 1.16 percent today till half day.
India’s energy security is under threat due to its investments in Syria’s oil sector, particularly by companies like ONGC. Any disruptions in these investments could have significant repercussions on India’s energy strategy and its plans for the India-Gulf-Suez Canal-Mediterranean/Levant-Europe corridor, which depends on a stable geopolitical environment.
The ongoing civil war in Syria has increased the influence of Shiite factions in the region, complicating India’s diplomatic ties with important Middle Eastern countries. As sectarian tensions escalate, India must tread carefully in its foreign relations to safeguard its strategic interests.
