As Republican candidate Donald Trump is set to return as the President of the United States, the US policymaking will see a mass upheaval. He will be the 47th President of US.
Trump’s presidency will have far-reaching implications for India, in all sectors from culture and trade to foreign policy and military strategic partnerships. Trump’s Republican voter base has a plethora of expectations from the former President.
Trump’s relations with India
Donald Trump enjoys a huge following in India, he has excellent relations with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who he has lauded as a good friend. Speaking about Modi recently, Trump said, “He’s great. He’s a friend of mine,” Trump said at a podcast hosted by stand-up comedian Andrew Schulz. “On the outside, he looks like he’s your father. He’s the nicest. Total killer.”
Donald Trump has regularly declared himself as a friend of India and the Hindu community. During his presidency, he hosted PM Modi at a huge event in Texas called ‘Howdy Modi’. The Indian PM reciprocated, inviting the American leader to a massive ‘Namaste Trump’ event in Gujarat.
Just before the polls, Donald Trump had taken to X to post a decisive and detailed statement in support of the global Hindu community, “I strongly condemn the barbaric violence against Hindus, Christians, and other minorities who are getting attacked and looted by mobs in Bangladesh, which remains in a total state of chaos.” This was perhaps the first time that a leader vying for the Presidentship of the USA had spoken in favour of the suffering Hindus around the world, especially the ones being targeted by Islamist mobs in Bangladesh.
“It would have never happened on my watch. Kamala and Joe have ignored Hindus across the world and in America. They have been a disaster from Israel to Ukraine to our own Southern Border, but we will Make America Strong Again and bring back Peace through Strength. We will also protect Hindu Americans against the anti-religion agenda of the radical left. We will fight for your freedom. Under my administration, we will also strengthen our great partnership with India and my good friend, Prime Minister Modi,” Trump said.
Economic Policy of Trump
Trump is a thorough businessman, and will play hard ball with India on the economic front. He is for free enterprise and will be looking to promote American business over any other. His usual policy is to impose tariffs on foreign companies for access to the American market and work on a tit-for-tat policy with governments. The tougher the market access for US companies in a particular country, the tougher he makes it for that nation to get access to the US.
Under a Trump-led administration, trade policies will be structured in favour of local businesses, potentially pressuring India to lower trade barriers or face tariffs. India’s IT, pharmaceutical, and textile industries, which export significantly to the US, could be notably affected. Trump has previously branded India as an “abuser” of tariffs, while also referring to Modi as a “fantastic man.”
At a town hall in Flint, Michigan, while discussing trade and tariffs, Trump remarked, “So when India, which is a very big abuser. These people are the sharpest people. They’re not a little bit backwards. You know the expression, they are at the top of their game, and they use it against us. But India is very tough. Brazil is very tough, China is the toughest of all, but we were taking care of China with the tariffs.”
However, Trump is also looking to reduce America’s reliance on China by urging US companies to relocate their supply chains elsewhere. This could benefit India in the long run. With the correct policies, India has a great opportunity to attract more US companies that are looking to diversify their options.
Immigration and H-1B visa policies
On immigration, Trump believes in tough restrictive policies, particularly concerning the H-1B visa program, which will have a significant impact on Indian professionals in the United States. Under the previous Trump administration, eligibility had been tightened and wage thresholds raised, increasing denial rates from 6% in 2015 to 24%.
Trump’s administration proposed a shift towards a more merit-based system that prioritizes skills over family connections, limiting immigration possibilities primarily to spouses and minor children. His policies will also have an impact on the Indian students looking to study in the United States. Currently, Indian students contribute $7.6 billion annually to the U.S. economy. But conversely, the Trump administration will be looking to increase scrutiny on F-1 student visas with proposed limitations on Optional Practical Training (OPT). Trump’s policies reflect a complete focus on prioritizing U.S. labor and internal security, limiting the pathways for new immigrants with tighter restrictions on those already in the system.
A return to such policies would also complicate the Indian workers’ access to the American job markets, affecting sectors reliant on skilled Indian workers, particularly technology. However, this could also have a positive impact back home, as stricter immigration laws could prompt Indian tech firms to explore alternative markets or invest in creating more domestic opportunities instead.
Views on China and Pakistan
Trump has a tough stance on China which aligns closely with India’s concerns. Though tensions on the Indo-China border have currently thawed, there is ample room for defence cooperation between the US and India to deepen under Trump’s leadership, due to India’s concerns regarding its volatile neighbourhood. Trump’s administration previously focused on the Quad-a security partnership between the US, India, Japan, and Australia to counter China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific.
Trump has also been very vocal in condemning radical Islamic terrorism around the world, he maintains a stern policy towards Pakistan. In his previous term, Trump had initiated the withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan, which resulted in tremendous damage to Pakistan on its Western border. The subsequent government of the Taliban has adopted an anti-Pakistan stance, with multiple freedom-fighting Pashto groups currently operating on the contested Durand line.
The Trump administration had also taken a different tack in trying to influence Pakistan. Instead of using aid as the primary tool, the Trump administration has relied on other alternatives. Most notably, the administration pulled its levers to put Pakistan in the grey list of the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), an international watchdog that monitors terrorist financing. The designation impedes economic investment into the country and causes it financial harm. In its bid to avoid being blacklisted, Pakistan was forced to take action against militant groups, including placing economic sanctions on terror groups like the Lashkar-e-Taiba while also sentencing the group’s leader, Hafiz Saeed, to 11 years in prison for terrorist financing.
Trump’s Geopolitics
Trump has been extremely vocal about solving the long-drawn Ukraine-Russia war. According to his running mate JD Vance, Trump would start negotiations with Kremlin, Ukraine, and the European Union (EU) stakeholders if he wins the election to achieve “a peaceful settlement”.
“Ukraine retains its independent sovereignty, Russia gets the guarantee of neutrality from Ukraine – it doesn’t join NATO, it doesn’t join some of these allied institutions. That is what the deal is ultimately going to look something like,” he said.
A solution to the Ukraine war would be extremely beneficial for the global economy which has suffered heavily due to sanctions, embargos, and rerouting of trade. India too has had to suffer constant pressure from Western lobbies to stop trade with Russia. The war has also had a significant impact on global oil prices resulting in substantial economic inflation across the world. The end of the conflict will come as a relief to many suffering economies and will act as a timely boost to the Indian markets as well.
As Donald Trump returns to power, he will be looking to make a clear headway in overturning an array of Democrat policies. With Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s excellent personal terms, and many coinciding global interests, it is safe to say that Donald Trump’s victory will prove to be beneficial, as far as Indian interests are concerned.
