Every time there is a regime change in Pakistan or the United States, India’s neighbour has this habit of offering to be the bridge to improve the strained relations between the United States and China. Neither power has taken the offer seriously to date. With Donald Trump winning the presidency, Pakistan renews its bid afresh. It may be in vain again going by past experience.
If the attempt is to be one up on India in terms of maintaining friendly relations with the US and China while improving its own standing with the former, it must be said the attempt is feeble. For, India stands at an altogether different pedestal in the global power play.
Not only that, it would startle the powers that be in Islamabad that Mike Waltz, chosen by Trump to be his National Security Adviser, harbours a long-standing opinion that the “collusion” between China and Pakistan is a security risk for the United States and India.
Walts has been pro-India for a long time. He was the co-chair of the House India Caucus and had even introduced a bipartisan legislation to fast-track US weapon sales to India.
In 2021, he co-wrote with Nikki Haley telling the US where to look for a strong and dependable ally. “The place to start is India. It’s time to form an alliance.”
They built up a case for this alliance ignoring all other possible partners for the US.
“We now only have one partner who can effectively keep a watchful eye on Afghanistan. It’s the same partner that can keep track of China’s southern frank: India.”
Their recommendation was that “US-India alliance would also give us an edge over China”.
Recalling these suggestions, The Times of India a few days ago wrote: “The duo also warned that the growing collusion between China and Pakistan poses serious security risks for both India and the US.”
If Waltz continues to hold on to that opinion, Pakistan’s efforts to be the bridge between the super power and the rising power will be stillborn.
It all began earlier this month when the Pakistani foreign office spokesperson Mumtaz Zahra Baloch said “Pakistan’s relations with China are all-weather” and will remain “unaffected” by Trump’s victory.
She said relations with China “are strategic and a source of stability in our foreign policy”. About the US, the spokesperson said “we look forward to further strengthen and broaden Pakistan-US relationship in all fields”.
Within hours of that statement, Pakistan’s Ambassador to Washington Rizwan Saeed Sheikh highlighted the role of the Pakistani-American community in fostering mutual growth, the state-run Radio Pakistan broadcaster reported.
“Pakistan has the potential to serve as a bridge between China and the United States,” he was quoted as saying. The offer was on the table again.
Interestingly, in March this year, when Shehbaz Sharif became Prime Minister after elections in Pakistan riddled with charges of corruption and rigging, he told his country’s parliament something entirely different.
Sharif only pledged that the country will not be part of any great game, implying that Pakistan will not align exclusively with either the US or China in their ongoing friction. That was perhaps a recognition of the fact that Pakistan’s manoeuvring space for balancing relations with both global powers is fast shrinking.
In contrast, in 2022, then Prime Minister Imran Khan was quite enthusiastic about playing the mediator between the US and China. He expressed his desire to act as a bridge between the two countries to ease down tensions between the powerhouses and bring them closer.
He was on record saying, “We have a good relationship with the US and also an iron-brother relationship with China. We want to play a role of the 1970s, when Pakistan was instrumental in getting the United States and China together.”
However, the problem that successive Prime Ministers of Pakistan have realised in recent years is that it is no longer possible for Islamabad to bank its deep ties with Washington in the past. For, their relations were damaged because the US suspected Pakistan of supporting the Taliban in their 2021 takeover of Kabul, allegations which Islamabad rejected.
Tensions rose further in 2022 when former Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan accused the Biden administration of orchestrating his ouster via a parliamentary vote, a charge the US denied. Pakistan, under PM Shehbaz Sharif’s two separate stints as prime minister in 2022 and 2024, has actively sought to improve its relations with the US but there is no tangible change.
In recent times, there are signs of troubled times for Pakistan with growing and consistent American criticism of Chinese investment projects in Pakistan under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a flagship project of China’s ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
The tensions stemming from efforts to strike a balance between relations with the US and China had reached a peak last year when Pakistan opted out of the virtual Democracy Summit co-hosted by US President Joe Biden after participating in the International Forum on Democracy in Beijing just a week earlier.
At the moment, the bilateral relationship between Pakistan and the US is on a downward spiral. The amount of American military and economic support to Pakistan is rapidly declining, especially since the US withdrawal from Afghanistan. However, the US remains the largest export market for Pakistani goods.
What is worse, Pakistan is literally on its knees before both China and the US to bail out its scattering economy. Without financial benevolence from either, Pakistan is in dire straits.
This September, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) a $7 billion loan for Pakistan aimed at helping the South Asian nation stabilize its economy after agreeing to a whole lot of terms and conditions to reform its spending patterns. The US cooperation was vital for this deal to come through.
On the other hand, Pakistan also requires immediate financial support from China to stabilise its struggling economy. Prime Minister Sharif’s first foreign visit after assuming office was to China. Pakistan relies on additional Chinese investment into special economic zones (SEZs) for the successful culmination of the second phase of CPEC. It also depends on Chinese military assistance to fulfil its mounting defence needs. That is because, as the Indo-US strategic partnership continues to expand, Pakistan is poised to further deepen its defence and security ties with China.
Pakistan now wants to ensure that its growing alignment with China does not put off the United States. But then, Pakistan’s hands are tied. Last month, it formally requested a supplementary loan of 10 billion yuan (CNY) (approximately USD 1.4 billion) from China underscoring the financial pressures of Islamabad.
This is a new request after Pakistan already fully consumed the existing trade finance facility of USD 4.3 billion under the China-Pakistan currency swap agreement. China knows that Pakistan has primarily utilised the Chinese trade finance facility to repay foreign debts and stabilise its foreign currency reserves, preventing potential market turmoil.
