Analyzing the recent election results in Uttar Pradesh, attributing them solely to candidate selection or the success of Akhilesh Yadav’s social engineering would be inappropriate. The votes were strategically cast against the BJP and in favor of the SP-Congress alliance. The results of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections have already come out, and Narendra Modi took the oath as Prime Minister for the third time on June 9th.
BJP in the realm of alliances:
With a decrease of 32 seats from the majority, it indicates that the BJP will have to work within the scope of coalition politics this time. Clearly, this situation is not very favorable for the BJP.
Performance in Various States:
Geographically, the party has expanded its presence in several states where it was previously marginal. In Tamil Nadu, although the party didn’t win any seats, it increased its vote share from 3.7% to 11.1%. On the western coast, by winning the Thrissur seat, the BJP has made its mark in Kerala for the first time.
The performance of the BJP has also been significant in the eastern coastal states. In Odisha, the party not only won 20 out of 21 Lok Sabha seats but also gained power in the state for the first time. In Telugu-speaking states, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, the party’s performance has been quite good as well.
Failure in Key States:
Despite this expansion, the BJP did not achieve expected success in Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, and West Bengal. The reasons vary from state to state. While there was Rajput discontent in Rajasthan, the Agnivir plan impacted the results in Haryana.
In Maharashtra, voters were dissatisfied with the BJP due to the merger of half of the opposition into the NDA. However, the party had expected some losses in these three states. The most surprising result came from Uttar Pradesh, where the party’s numbers fell behind the Samajwadi Party.
Analysis of Uttar Pradesh Election Results:
Understanding the results of Uttar Pradesh is not just a matter for the BJP but also of curiosity for political analysts. Upon closely examining the voting patterns, it can be observed that the Bahujan Samaj Party received approximately 13% of the votes in the 2022 assembly elections, which decreased to 9.44% this time. It is believed that this benefited the NDA alliance.
In addition, along with the change in Dalit votes, some communities within the OBC group also leaned towards the alliance. The Saini vote in Rohilkhand, Nishad vote in Doab, and Kurmi vote in Awadh moved away from the BJP. Rajput discontent also influenced the BJP and its allies in several places.
In the absence of any major nationalistic or nationalist issues, this election has returned Indian politics to its default setting – casteism. Akhilesh Yadav’s clever alliance formation countered the poor candidacy of the BJP. The problem that started with strong dissatisfaction among MPs increased the apathy of the BJP and RSS cadres.
Extensive Factors:
However, besides all these reasons, there were some important extensive factors that influenced the elections in Uttar Pradesh. The BJP’s performance was poor in rural areas and on seats dominated by scheduled castes and OBC communities. It wouldn’t be entirely appropriate to attribute this trend solely to candidate selection or the success of Akhilesh Yadav’s social engineering, as the NDA vote decreased seat by seat across the state, while the vote for the alliance increased. These votes were strategically cast against the NDA and in favor of the SP-Congress alliance.
Prime Minister Modi cannot be blamed for poor candidate selection; however, he received 60,000 fewer votes in Varanasi compared to last time. On the other hand, Ajay Rai received 1,70,000 more votes than the SP-BSP alliance and Congress combined in 2019.
The profile of affected seats indicates that the Congress’ promise of one lakh rupees and the BJP’s false narrative of ending reservations were successful. The Congress’ social media campaign not only spread lies around reservations but also brought its propaganda to the forefront on EVMs. Until the fake video of Amit Shah made by AI was caught, it had already caused significant damage.
BJP’s social media team failed to counter Congress’ negative propaganda. The absence of the coalition in UP further fueled the narrative of “reservations will be abolished.” While leaders like Manjhi and Chirag Paswan debunked this lie in several small rallies in Bihar, no such effort was seen in UP.
Technical Aspects and Elections:
Revisiting the 2004 Re-run:
In many ways, the 2024 elections saw a re-run of the ‘India Shining’ mistake of 2004. It is true that the country has witnessed unprecedented development in basic infrastructure, availability of basic amenities, and GDP growth, lifting nearly 25 crore people above the poverty line. However, painting a picture of economic progress through terms like “Vishwaguru” and “Developed India” angered the relatively poor economic condition of the large segments.
Internal Problems of the Party:
Issues like poor ticket distribution, bringing in external leaders, and neglecting the old cadre are emerging in the BJP as the high command culture grows. Prime Minister Modi’s administrative record has been exceptional. It’s his extraordinary leadership that has enabled the BJP to form a full majority government with the NDA, despite facing anti-incumbency waves for two terms.
It would be impossible under any other leader. However, decisions made by the Center and Delhi have affected the dynamism of state governments. Evaluating the seriousness of local issues from top to bottom has become difficult. It’s noteworthy that the high command culture was also a major reason for the downfall of the Congress party.
The results indicate the need for an analysis of the state government’s style, which shows excessive dependence on bureaucrats. While Chief Minister Yogi has broken the back of organized crime and liberated the state from fear, the neglect of legislators and activists has given rise to organizational apathy.
Despite some challenges, the BJP has received a jolt but has not lost power. Past records show that the party and its leadership have consistently adapted as required. The analysis of the results in Uttar Pradesh indicates that the BJP will have to rethink its strategy.
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