Maldives Presidential Elections: The island country of Maldives has for long been a sensitive issue for India. The domestic politics have turned out to be a see-saw of the diplomatic world view. Whereas, until 2019, the policies were centred around Chinese influence, post-2019 saw pro-Indian sentiment among the people. The probable reason for such a shift is the exploitative dominance of China.
So, although the majority of the citizens are taking easy breaths after the diminished Chinese influence, there is a segment that wants a resurgence of Chinese-oriented diplomacy. This is raising eyebrows from New Delhi to Beijing. This year is going to be extensively active for domestic politicians, thereby making the upcoming parliamentary elections more interesting. And so, it is the need of the hour to analyse the ramifications of Maldives politics on India.
The Maldives is set to hold Presidential Elections
In September 2023, the Maldives is set to hold presidential Elections to select the parliament and the president, who is the head of government. In the previous parliamentary election in 2019, the Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) achieved a landslide victory, winning 65 out of the 87 seats in the parliament, under the leadership of Ibrahim Mohamed Solih. The Jumhooree Party and the Progressive Party secured five seats each. The huge majority was the result of pro-China sentiment.
But the situation has changed in the last 4 years in the political discourse of the country. A growing rift appears to be present within the ruling MDP party between former President Mohamed Nasheed and incumbent President Solih.
In June 2022, Solih already confirmed his intention to seek re-election. This took both the senior leaders of the party face-to-face. The rift widened further when Nasheed, after being elected as the parliament’s speaker, expressed his intention to change the Maldives’ political system from a presidential to a parliamentary system of government.
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Rift between top leaders of the pro-India ruling party
In the Maldives, there is a mechanism to elect the party’s presidential candidate. This intra-party election is called the parliamentary primary. During this primary, Nasheed described the poll as a choice between autocracy and democracy and accused Solih of rigging votes and bribery. Nasheed announced his candidature for the MDP’s presidential primary and officially launched his campaign in early December 2022.
In late January 2023, the MDP conducted its presidential primary, marking the first time a sitting president competed in the party’s presidential primary. Following his victory in the primary, Solih declared to his supporters that the “competition is now resolved.” Continued internal conflicts could result in the division of MDP votes in the lead-up to the Maldives Presidential Elections. But Nasheed has not yet revealed whether he will support Solih after losing the presidential primary.
The opposition is lobbying for China
On the other hand, the opposition coalition (PPM/PNC) nominated former President Abdulla Yameen Abdul Qayyoom as their presidential candidate, but he was convicted in December on charges of money laundering and bribery, which disqualifies him from running. Yameen has until August 2023 to overturn his conviction and become eligible to contest the election.
Meanwhile, the geopolitical activities of India and China in the Maldives have further polarised the country’s politics. The opposition, with Yameen being the Chinese sympathiser, has constantly targeted President Solihs close relationship with India.
However, the current government has worked to strengthen ties with India, while Yameen and other opposition forces advocate for weakening or ending India’s presence in the country, symbolised by the “India Out” slogan.
Also read: Why is everybody in Maldives, right from government to the people, singing praises of India?
How China trapped the Maldives with Yameen
Yameen has even threatened to terminate all agreements with India if he is elected. On China, the ruling MDP’s Nasheed has accused Beijing of inflating the price of developmental projects funded in developing countries and regrets the country’s participation in the Belt and Road Initiative under Yameen’s rule.
Maldives’ finance minister has also highlighted the lack of transparency in China’s economic and development engagement with the country, revealing that he spent his first week in office reconciling loans taken by the previous government and the sovereign guarantees associated with them because the government was unaware of the exact amount owed to China.
Concerns for India
As the Maldives prepares for its upcoming presidential elections, it is becoming increasingly clear that the India-China factor is likely to play a significant role in the country’s political landscape. For India, it is crucial that the internal disputes within the ruling MDP party are resolved, as the opposition has signalled its intention to shift away from the current pro-India foreign policy.
And Nasheed’s unhappiness could just boost that. Although the possibility of Nasheed joining the opposition is rare, his contestation against Solih will benefit the opposition only, and this could be a setback for Indian interests in the region. This presents a challenge for India as it seeks to maintain its strategic interests in the region while navigating a potentially hostile political environment.
However, India has much to gain from a stable and friendly government in the Maldives. The country is a key partner for India in the Indian Ocean region and has traditionally aligned itself with India’s strategic interests. India has provided significant economic and military assistance to the Maldives over the years, and a pro-India government in the Maldives would be a valuable asset for India in its efforts to counter China’s growing influence in the region.
Also read: Even an island nation like Maldives doesn’t care a dime about China
On the other hand, a government that is openly hostile to India could provide China with an opportunity to expand its reach in the archipelagic nation. China has been aggressively pursuing its interests in the Indian Ocean region, and a Maldives government that is more receptive to Chinese overtures could potentially undermine India’s strategic position in the region.
As such, India must remain vigilant and engaged in the political developments in the Maldives, even as it seeks to avoid being seen as interfering in the country’s internal affairs. India must continue to provide economic and military assistance to the Maldives while also engaging in strategic outreach to the country’s political leadership.
Ultimately, the success of India’s foreign policy in the Maldives will depend on the outcome of the upcoming presidential elections and the ability of the government formed thereafter to balance the interests of both India and China.
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