The economic crisis hit when Sri Lanka got a bailout package from the IMF. The island country is facing its worst economic crisis. Countries like India and China have given assurances to the IMF, which helped Colombo secure an IMF bailout. China seeks territorial gains in the geopolitics of the Indian Ocean, and so India wants to counter the Chinese influence for its maritime security. But in between their tussle, another actor is entering the island’s geo-politics, which has some implications that need a closer look.
It all started when the General Secretary of the Communist Party of Sri Lanka (CPSL), Dr. G. Weerasinghe, demanded the government clarify whether American intelligence agency CIA chief William Burns visited the country or not. And if it was so, what was discussed?
Weerasinghe called a press conference and alleged that Burns and his delegation arrived in special aircraft on February 14 and that their flight had not been subject to immigration controls. The ruling party’s former leader, Udaya Gammanpi, also questioned the government and accused it of giving no justification. He blamed the fact that as many as four proposals that are detrimental to Sri Lanka’s security were discussed. The four points included are:
- setting up an intelligence analysis centre
- donation of a biometric immigration control system
- the granting of access to submarine telecommunications cables and data
- the review of a Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA)
On February 16, just 2 days after the so-called visit took place, a US delegation led by Jedidiah Royal, U.S. principal deputy assistant secretary of defence for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs, visited Colombo. But again, the details of the meeting were withheld, and so speculation again took over the political discourse. It was alleged that the US is planning a military base in Sri Lanka.
The speculations were so profound that Royal himself had to dismiss rumours about the United States establishing a military base in the country’s strategically important Trincomalee District. But his statement too changed nothing because the delegation arrived with two C-17 Globemaster aircraft at Bandaranaike International Airport (BIA) near Colombo. The 20-person delegation used two aircraft with a combined capacity of about 200 people, raising eyebrows in the country.
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CIA chief denies plans to visit Kathmandu
In between all this, there was something very interesting going on related to Nepal. Reports suggest that Burns’ visit to Nepal was scheduled for February 15, where he had to stay for 18 hours. But Nepal barred his visit because the timing was not suitable. There are speculations that C-17 was escorting William Burns instead of the delegation.
But as far as Sri Lanka is concerned, there is something going on between Colombo and US. In a period of 15 days, two high-level US visits to the island took place. Previously, the U.S. Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs, Victoria Nuland, also visited Colombo during an official visit to South Asia and Qatar.
US looking for base in the Indian Ocean
The developments are yet to be officially announced, but US indulgence with Sri Lanka is raising questions regarding its policy in the Indo-Pacific and Indian Ocean. In 2021, it was said that the US was looking to deploy 60 percent of its surface ships in the Indo-Pacific region. And so, it wants safe territory in the Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal, Andaman, and Nicobar Islands. The US was planning to use the bases for refuelling and logistical support.
And for that reason, the speculations cannot be simply squashed off. But what about India? New Delhi can be more reliable in the Indian Ocean. Right? Actually, the LEMOA agreement signed between India and the US is perceived by many as a framework that will open the doors for establishing military bases in each other’s countries.
However, India’s stand on this has been very clear. It does not allow any country to use its territory for geopolitical rivalries. So, maybe the US is looking towards financially torn Sri Lanka to negotiate the establishment of a military base.
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SOFA is posing a threat to the subcontinent
The SOFA agreement, which opposition leaders in Sri Lanka are talking about, is blowing the whistle for such debates. Now, what is SOFA? It is actually a framework under which the signatory country provides a base to the US military, giving permission to US personnel to operate.
It defines how the domestic law will apply to that military and its operations. So, basically, it is considered to be against political sovereignty. The US government has been negotiating SOFA with Sri Lanka for a long time, and at this moment, SOFA is more like bargaining.
Targeting China but with implications for India
One thing is pretty clear: all this posturing that happens is targeted against China. However, it has some pros and cons too. Sri Lanka is debt-trapped by China, which is currently posing the biggest threat to India. To that extent, India and the USA are in the same boat. So, this will certainly benefit New Delhi, as the Pentagon will contain Chinese influence. But the bigger concern is that the military base and intelligence analysis centre in Sri Lanka are apparently pulling the conflict directly to the doors of the Indian subcontinent.
Apart from backing the US army and navy to deal with any uncertainty in the Indo-Pacific, the base and intelligence analysis centre could also be used to deal with the growing influence of China in the Middle East and Persian Gulf, where the US influence is continuously declining. This raises concerns for India.
The current conflict between Russia and Ukraine has made the hostility more acute, and as a result, scholars are viewing the current geopolitical disclosure as “Cold War 2.0. The dynamics of this cold war are different from those of the erstwhile 20th century war. The conflict is more like a proxy geopolitical war between the US, headed west, and China.
Also read: With Pakistan firmly in China’s pocket, Sri Lanka is the new battleground of Asian century
India needs to closely watch
So, the centre of the geopolitical contest is undoubtedly the Indo-Pacific, and this has implications for India also. The so far peaceful Indian Ocean can be compromised in that context. So, it is vital for New Delhi to keep a close eye on the unfolding developments. It desperately needs to understand that neutrality must not be reduced to non-alignment, but rather that it should be focused on sorting geo-political equations—at least in its vicinity— in favour of the country.
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