Arvind Kejriwal is one heck of a politician. He has the grittiness of a typical schoolboy, who once shown a particular path ends up making it his mission. His adherence to the election winning formula is one such example. But this time, the man is in for a boomerang. BJP, the enemy which he aims to destroy will ultimately win emphatically, all thanks to AAP’s presence in Gujarat.
Sisodia and freebies are the only hopes for Kejriwal
Somehow, AAP Supremo Arvind Kejriwal has come to believe that the more his party leaders keep getting caught, the more votes he will gain in the Gujarat Assembly elections. For him, Manish Sisodia, the most handsome man is a magical person. Quote, “If he is arrested twice, then we might form a government in Gujarat”. Yes, it was said by a former IITian who was also a civil servant and celebrated anti-corruption crusader.
However, this is only the tip of the iceberg. In spite of getting a public “NO” from the Gujaratis, Kejriwal still believes that his freebie formula will work in Gujarat, just like it did in Delhi and Punjab. This is the reason why he has announced loads of freebies to get votes from Gujaratis. The announced freebies include a monthly allowance for youth and women, free electricity for both agriculture and households, and forgiveness of electricity bills for a particular period of time.
Kejriwal is not all that wrong
To be fair to Kejriwal, he should be confident about his prospects. It’s his tried and tested strategy. Incentives that do not create long term infrastructure, also termed as freebies, have been the backbone of a decade long journey of AAM AADMI PARTY.
Even in Gujarat, there is economic disparity, and the less advantageous sections of the population may be tempted to vote for AAP. Moreover, there are chances that in the wee hours of elections, AAP may play a communal card, just like they courted Khalistanis to win Punjab.
Kejriwal copying Congress’ playbook
However, stating that AAP will form a government in Gujarat is certainly an overstatement. There are two main reasons behind it. Firstly, all these tactics that Kejriwal is trying have been tried by Congress in the past. AAP’s tactic in Gujarat is the textbook definition of a photocopy.
Throughout its history, Congress pushed the socialist definition of welfare state, which is “Make the population dependent on itself and in return gain votes from it”. To be honest, it worked well until the 1991 reforms. 3 years after the reforms, Congress was kicked out of Gujarat, never to be seen again. The people of Gujarat are hard-working by nature, which CM Modi utilized.
BJP is numero uno in Gujarat
Secondly, in spite of suffering several setbacks after the departure of PM Modi to the centre, BJP is still a force to reckon with in Gujarat. In the 2017 assembly elections, it won the trust of 49.1 per cent of Gujaratis vigilant enough to vote.
That leaves AAP fighting for the second spot, which is occupied by Congress. AAP’s reliance on freebies for vote will only end up snatching a lion’s share of Congress vote bank, as BJP voters are not known for their adherence to short-term incentives. It is the forte of Congress voters. The good thing with these voters is that Kejriwal is known for delivering on his freebies promises. AAP is one of the reasons why freebies are being debated in the APEX Court of the land.
AAP eating into Congress’ votes
On the other hand, Congress is suffering from a legitimacy crisis. Their losing streak does not inspire confidence among voters. Even if, somehow, they are able to communicate their victory prospects, they can’t quell whispers around “Operation lotus”. Resultantly, a huge chunk of its votes will shift to AAP.
This gives an opportunity for BJP to resurrect its falling prospects. Nothing could be better than numbers 2 and 3 fighting for their spots. It’s certainly only BJPs’ game to lose.
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