The world has changed irreversibly with the Middle East forming the epicentre of the tectonic shifts in the new geopolitical order, as the UAE, the US and Israel have issued a Joint Statement emphasising upon “full normalization of relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates.” With the US President brokering a truce between the UAE and Israel, it has become clear that the UAE has chosen sides. The Emiratis have aligned their interests with the United States, Saudi Arabia, India and Israel while snubbing Palestine, Pakistan, Turkey and Iran. An alliance is now forming. The UAE already had deep bilateral ties with New Delhi and Washington, but the Joint Statement with Israel crystallises its position officially.
Simultaneously, a China-backed axis consisting of states like Pakistan, Iran, Turkey and Palestine is also taking shape.
With the Joint Statement, the UAE has not only forged official diplomatic ties with Israel officially leaving behind the Arab aversion towards the Jewish state but has also agreed to forge deep ties across a number of sectors. The US-brokered the deal so it remains the pivotal part of the alliance. And New Delhi also becomes an intrinsic part of the alliance because India was one of the first countries with whom the UAE discussed the “full normalisation of relations” with Israel.
Joint Statement of the United States, the State of Israel, and the United Arab Emirates pic.twitter.com/oVyjLxf0jd
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) August 13, 2020
Foreign Minister Dr. S. Jaishankar tweeted, “Deeply appreciate the call today from FM HH @ABZayed of UAE. Discussed the full normalisation of relations between UAE and Israel announced yesterday.”
Deeply appreciate the call today from FM HH @ABZayed of UAE. Discussed the full normalisation of relations between UAE and Israel announced yesterday.
— Dr. S. Jaishankar (@DrSJaishankar) August 14, 2020
On the other hand, snubbed by the US, members of the new axis are the first one to fall into China’s lap. Beijing has been investing heavily in the Middle East in order to fulfil its massive hydrocarbons requirements and as the United States leaves a major void due to military reduced presence, China has been trying to replace the US as the main power in the region.
In western South Asia, China has billions invested in Pakistan with its CPEC project, further west, it has pledged $400 billion in investments to Iran in a ‘secret’ strategic deal and is also building strong ties with Turkey.
Pro-China countries like Iran, Pakistan and Turkey located in West Asia or having a significant stake in West Asia have been snubbed brutally by Washington for their hawkishness and roguish behaviour. Therefore, they have found a new big brother in China, which shares the same traits of turning rogue as the regimes of Turkey, Iran and Pakistan.
This is why Turkey and Iran, both who want to dethrone Saudi Arabia ana UAE as leaders of the Musilm world, were the ones to issue embittered remarks about the Joint Statement between the US, UAE and Israel. The Iranian Foreign Ministry described the Joint Statement as “strategic stupidity from Abu Dhabi and Tel Aviv” that would only strengthen Tehran’s “axis of resistance”.
A Ministry statement read, “The oppressed people of Palestine and all the free nations of the world will never forgive the normalising of relations with the criminal Israeli occupation regime and the complicity in its crimes.”
Turkey gave a similar reaction, and issued a statement reading, “History and the conscience of the region’s peoples will not forget and never forgive this hypocritical behaviour of the UAE, betraying the Palestinian cause for the sake of its narrow interests.”
It added, “It is extremely worrying that the UAE should, with unilateral action, try and do away with the  Arab Peace Plan developed by the Arab League. It is not in the slightest credible that this three-way declaration should be presented as supporting the Palestinian cause.”
Turkey and Iran are accused of using with Palestine to destabilise Israel and share a deep-rooted animosity for the Jewish state. Thus, they stand to lose with the UAE’s acceptance for Israel. Similarly, Pakistan stands to lose because its terror factory will be dented when the leaders of the Arab Muslim world- the UAE and Saudi Arabia walk down a relatively progressive path.
Looking at the strong alliance building between Israel, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, India and the US, these rogue nations have also decided to join hands with China at the helm of the axis.
Another pro-Palestine country Qatar that has its own diplomatic tussles with Saudi Arabia might continue to bolster Palestine’s militant elements and strengthen ties with Pakistan.
From now on, the alliance from New Delhi to Riyadh, and Abu Dhabi to Tel Aviv, and Washington will aim to pull the Middle East out of the wars that it has been sucked into all this while. On the other hand, Turkey will continue to challenge Saudi Arabia, and UAE in the Middle East, while Iran tries to ‘obliterate’ Israel and Pakistan tries to destabilise India. The picture is thus becoming clearer, it is China, Turkey and allies versus USA, Israel, the UAE and allies in and around West Asia.