The Delhi Assembly polls sprang up quite a surprise insofar the comfortable majority secured by the Kejriwal led AAP is concerned. While the results have not been on expected lines, due to a number of factors, they also come as a wake up call for the BJP.
The BJP increased its vote share substantially from 32 per cent in the 2015 polls to 38 per cent in the February 8 polls this year. However, the results are still quite a drubbing and an important lesson for the party.
It is not as if the BJP failed on core ideological issues as the mainstream media is claiming. But there was a serious issue with the party’s low-intensity election campaign, something that the party will take care of when it goes to polls in the state of West Bengal next year.
In Delhi, the party started campaigning intensely only in the last week ahead of the polls. Party’s star campaigners- Union Home Minister, Amit Shah and Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister, Yogi Adityanath were able to push BJP further.
The BJP did make a substantial rise in terms of vote share, which means that its poll pitch did resonate in the national capital. Had it campaigned that much more aggressively, the BJP could have made substantial inroads in Delhi.
Having realised the costs of low intensity campaigns, the BJP will not make the same mistakes again in West Bengal.
The state of West Bengal is a crucial state that goes to polls in the upcoming future. Bihar too will go to polls towards the end of this year, but there the BJP will be fighting in alliance with Nitish Kumar who will be the BJP led NDA’s CM candidate.
However, the real battle will take place in West Bengal where the BJP will be on its own against TMC supemo, Mamata Banerjee.
West Bengal has been a part of BJP’s larger political objectives for quite some time now. During the Lok Sabha polls last year, the BJP won 18 seats in the state up from merely 2 seats in the 2014 General Elections.
Mamata Banerjee led TMC, on the other hand, faced a major setback winning only 22 seats down from 34 seats in 2014. BJP also managed to increase its vote share to 40.23 per cent, up by 22.25 per cent vote share in 2014 Lok Sabha polls.
Mamata Banerjee’s appeasement tactics and anti-Hindu image have helped BJP make substantial inroads in the state. 2019 Lok Sabha polls made it clear that while BJP is a rising force in the state, TMC is on the wane. As such the momentum is in favour of the BJP.
BJP will not leave anything to chance during the 2021 West Bengal Legislative Assembly polls for two main reasons- the party knows that it has a wonderful opportunity to make deep inroads in the state and secondly because a defeat in West Bengal will put the BJP in a very tight spot.
The political circumstances of India have changed drastically over the last two years as far as the states are concerned.
Not too very long ago, BJP had enjoyed a very strong presence throughout the country map, as far as state elections are concerned. The Indian map was largely saffronised. But it has suffered setbacks both before and after the 2019 Lok Sabha polls.
With defeats in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Rajasthan and Shiv Sena’s betrayal in Maharashtra, BJP has been pushed out of several states, majority of them falling in the Hindi heartland- a region generally considered as its stronghold.
If BJP loses West Bengal, then it will send alarm bells ringing for the party. Apart from the issues that might arise in Rajya Sabha, the left liberal cabal won’t let go the opportunity to launch a vicious assault on the PM Modi and the BJP.
Delhi Assembly polls shows that the BJP has to essentially manage things on its own. In Delhi, the AAP conceded almost its entire voter base that directly benefitted the Kejriwal led AAP. There is no reason why the Congress won’t apply similar tactics in West Bengal.
The Congress knows that it has lost the potential to win and therefore it has reduced its objectives to merely defeating the BJP, even if the grand old party has to sacrifice itself for the purpose.
In West Bengal elections, the Congress will look to relinquish its voter base to Mamata Banerjee. Communists have already been decimated and therefore the BJP should not expect a triangular or a multi cornered contest.
The elections are going to be a fierce, bilateral battle between the BJP and Mamata Banerjee led TMC. Having learnt its lessons from Delhi, BJP will go all out during the West Bengal Assembly polls campaign.
