The last and the seventh phase of the 2019 Lok Sabha elections came to an end yesterday. The results are set to be announced on May 23rd. Most of the 2019 exit polls have predicted a comfortable victory for the BJP-led NDA. In the southern states, the BJP seems to be winning big in the state of Karnataka.
The regional parties seem to be dominating in most of the southern states except Karnataka and Kerala where the BJP and the Congress-led UDF are set to stage a sweep respectively.
However, before going into the details of the 2019 exit polls, it is imperative to make an analysis of how the 2014 Lok Sabha exit polls fared vis-a-vis the results in these states.
As far as the state of Andhra Pradesh is concerned, the states of Andhra Pradesh and Telangana had not been bifurcated when India went to 2014 Lok Sabha polls. At that time there were 42 Lok Sabha seats in Andhra Pradesh. In 2014, Times Now had predicted that the BJP-TDP alliance would win 17 out of 25 seats in Seemandhra and 2 seats in the Telangana region. The Congress would win 5 and the YSRCP 9 seats. The results were not very different, the TDP managed to bag 16 seats and the BJP won from 3 seats. As predicted, the BJP-TDP coalition won from 19 seats. However, the Congress could win only 2 seats as against a prediction of five seats. The YSRCP did win 9 seats as expected and the TRS emerged victorious on 11 seats.
In the state of Karnataka, the Times Now had predicted a sweep for BJP with 18 out of 28 seats while the Congress was expected to bag 10 seats. C Voter predicted that BJP would get 18 seats and the Congress would be reduced to 7. The poll predictions turned out to be largely correct. The only minor difference was that BJP won 17 instead of 18 and the Congress won 9 seats. The remaining two seats went to JD(S). The CNN-IBN exit poll, however, went wrong. It had predicted a range of 12-16 for the Congress and 10-14 for the BJP.
In the state of Tamil Nadu, all exit polls had predicted a sweep for Jayalalitha’s AIADMK. While the Times Now survey had predicted 31 out of 39 seats for the AIADMK, C Voter kept the figure at 27. CNN-IBN kept it at 22-28 seats. Times Now predicted 7 seats for DMK. C-Voter predicted 6 seats for the DMK and CNN-IBN kept the figure at 7-11 seats. AIADMK not only swept the state of Tamil Nadu but also went on to win even further than the poll predictions. The Jayalalitha led party won 37 out of 39 seats wiping out DMK from the picture.
Coming to the state of Kerala, which sends 20 members to the Lok Sabha, the exit polls had turned out to be largely accurate during the 2014 polls, except the Times Now survey which had predicted 16 seats for the Congress-led UDF. C Voter had predicted 11 seats for the Congress and 9 for the LDF. CNN-IBN had predicted 11-14 seats for the Congress-led alliance and 6-9 for the LDF. The UDF won 10 seats largely in sync with the exit polls while the LDF won in seven.
For 2019, the exit poll results for these states are:
Telangana
- INDIA TODAY-MY AXIS POLL: 10-12 seats for TRS, 1-3 for Congress, 1 to 3 for BJP and 1 for AIMIM.
- TIMES NOW-VMR POLLS: 13 seats for TRS, 2 for Congress, 1 each for BJP and AIMIM.
- REPUBLIC -C VOTER EXIT POLLS: 14 seats for TRS, 1 seat for Congress and 1 each for AIMIM and BJP.
- NEWS24-CHANAKYA: TRS to win 14 to 16 seats, 0-1 seat for the AIMIM, the BJP and the Congress.
Andhra Pradesh
- INDIA TODAY-MY AXIS POLL: 4 to 6 seats for the TDP, 18 to 20 seats for the YSRCP, 0-1 for others.
- TIMES NOW-VMR: 7 seats for TDP, 18 for YSRCP.
- REPUBLIC-JAN KI BAAT: 13-16 seats for YSRCP, TDP reduced to 8-12 seats.
- NEWSX-NETA EXIT POLL: 20 seats for YSRCP, 5 to the TDP.
Karnataka
- INDIA TODAY-MY AXIS: 21 to 25 seats for the BJP, 3-6 for the Congress, 1 to 3 for the JD (S).
- C-VOTER and NEWSX-NETA: BJP to win 18 seats, Congress reduced to 6 to7 seats, 2-3 for JD (S).
- CNN NEWS18-IPSOS POLL: 20-23 seats for the BJP, Congress-JD (S) coalition reduced to mere 5-8 seats.
Tamil Nadu
- INDIA TODAY AXIS EXIT POLL: 34-38 seats for DMK-Congress alliance, AIADMK-BJP alliance maximum of 4 seats.
- CHANAKYA-NEWS24 EXIT POLL: AIADMK-BJP alliance to win 6 seats, the Congress-DMK alliance to get 31 seats.
- REPUBLIC C VOTER SURVEY: DMK-Congress alliance to win from 27 seats, NDA to win on 11 seats.
Kerala
- INDIA TODAY-MY AXIS: 15 to 16 seats for UDF, 3 to 5 seats for CPI (M) led LDF. NDA to win one seat.
- REPUBLIC C VOTER: Congress-led UDF to win 15 seats, LDF reduced to 5.
- TIMES NOW-VMR: UDF to win 15, Left From to get 4 seats, 1 seat for NDA.
