As the 2019 General Elections are around the corner, several opinion polls and surveys are being conducted to know about the first choice of the voters. The Republic-CVoter National Approval Ratings shows that the NDA will easily cross the majority mark. The National Approval Ratings show that the NDA stands to get 276 seats easily, which means that PM Modi led NDA alliance stands to be the single largest party in the country as of today. It shows that the UPA stands to get 112 seats while the other parties will be able to get 155 seats in total. The others include some NDA leaning parties like BJD along with the other parties from the supposed grand alliance.
As per the National Approval Ratings, Rahul Gandhi’s leadership and campaign have caused harm to the political prospects of his coalition partners and that to his own party in Rajasthan. Rahul Gandhi is proving to be the ‘Bhasmasur’ to Chandrababu Naidu in Telangana as well as in Andhra Pradesh where Naidu’s party is in power. Association with Rahul Gandhi is also going to prove costly for Lalu Prasad Yadav’s RJD in Bihar.
The BJP is making inroads in the states where previously it was considered to be an alien. In Odisha and West Bengal, it has gained significant clout, as was evident in the Panchayat election results of both the states. The top political parties of Odisha and West Bengal- BJD and TMC respectively- might be the next regional parties to be marginalized. In these two states, the BJP is enthusiastically raising the regional issues and making significant inroads. In these states the BJP has nothing to lose and everything to gain, which is certain for the days to come.
The BJP is likely to face a strong challenge in Uttar Pradesh because of the grand alliance of two main parties-SP and BSP in the state. The National Approval Ratings predicts that the biggest loser in 2019 general elections will be those parties who are walking away from the NDA camp. The Telugu Desam Party of Chandrababu Naidu is facing the danger of a rout in both Telangana and Andhra Pradesh, and similarly the fate of Mehbooba Mufti’s PDP in Jammu and Kashmir too stands on shaky grounds. All these projections prove that the NDA is coming to power in 2019. In the best case scenario, the NDA has chances of getting 331 seats, which is very close to what it had won in the 2014 general elections- 336 seats.
Republic TV is not alone in predicting the return of the NDA to power in 2019; the survey carried out by ABP news also predicts the same. According to a survey carried out by ABP News & C-Voter, the BJP led NDA will come back to power if general elections are held today. The survey predicts that the NDA will easily cross the majority mark and is likely to get 276 seats in the 543-member Lok Sabha; while the Congress led UPA is projected to capture 112 seats. The other parties are likely to grab 155 seats. The survey shows that NDA’s vote share is likely to be around 38% of the total vote share.
The survey was conducted in the period from August 30 – September 30, 2018 and at a time when the government is facing vehement criticism from the opposition over rising fuel prices, falling value of rupee and also allegations of corruption with respect to Rafale deal. Despite these allegations NDA led by the BJP is comfortably getting the majority mark.
Both the surveys predict a comfortable majority for the NDA in 2019 and earlier too in an online survey carried out by The Indian Political Action Committee (I-PAC), 48 per cent of the respondents voted Prime Minister Narendra Modi as the leader who would take the ‘agenda of the nation’ ahead. On the other hand, Rahul Gandhi got 11% votes whereas Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal could only manage 9.3% of votes to occupy the third position. Meanwhile, former UP CM Akhilesh Yadav, West Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee and BSP supremo Mayawati occupied fourth, fifth and sixth spot respectively, with 7 %, 4.2% and 3.1% votes. 57 lakh people from 712 districts had voted in the survey that lasted for a period of 55 days.
All these surveys cement the fact that PM Modi is still the most popular leader amongst the people of India and that he leads by a huge margin. In terms of popularity and leadership skills, the Congress party President Rahul Gandhi despite so much media and social media PR, comes nowhere close to PM Modi. It shows that his tactic of ‘icchadhari hindu’ is not at all working and people are abhorring such cheap attempts to appease the majority community for electoral gains.
This survey gives us a glimpse of how the political events would unfold in the upcoming days. The picture will change but only in favor of the BJP led NDA alliance. The recent deduction in the prices of petrol and diesel by the centre and the BJP ruled states has ameliorated the image of the BJP in the eyes of the people. This move will ease a little bit of the burden on the citizens of the country. The BJP government has also started deporting Rohingyas and once the SC gives verdict on Ram Mandir and the burning NRC issue by December then everything would change significantly. Also when PM Modi starts his dynamic campaign then the whole scenario stands to change for the better in BJP’s favor. The NDA might end up winning even more seats than what the surveys are predicting today.