I remember that lavish praise for a wily yet ruthless politician from Bihar. He was credited with turning the Indian railways into a profit making machine. However, Lalu Yadav had a dreaded style of his own. And over the years, it had flourished richly in the form of a jungle Raj. His jokes and digs on the opposition were very well known in the media circles. For political opponents he was like a mere court jester. But undoubtedly, Lalu had virtually pushed his home state Bihar into darkness and chaos. Bihar was stuck in a mess for a long time and somewhere Lalu Yadav was the chief architect of the same.
Nevertheless, Lalu was revered in the secularist school of Indian polity. He was at the forefront when UPA was formed in 2004 and was one of those individuals who had helped in cementing the same. That was Lalu Yadav when he was at the prime of his career. Today as he took steps towards a CBI court sentencing the fodder scam, he was desperately praying for a miracle. The verdicts in 2G and the relief in Adarsh case may have increased his hopes. But all came down crashing into a stern conviction. Lalu Yadav was held guilty and the quantum of his punishment will be decided on January 3. The fodder case had been dragging now for decades and somewhere the judgment will be appealed in the higher courts.
There are four fallouts of the fodder verdict and the impact of the case will be tremendous on the political landscape. It will have short as well as long term ramifications.
Firstly, the judgment is expected to rattle the state politics. A deactivated RJD was brought to life in the form of Nitish Kumar aligning at the behest of the Congress. The grand alliance won and BJP had to taste one of the first defeats post 2014. But the greediness of RJD and their strong-arm tactics brought Nitish back in to the NDA fold. This resulted in RJD being marginalized as opposition again. Now, the sentencing of Lalu will further dent RJD and its cohesiveness in maintaining a grand coalition for the next polls. Even if Lalu has son Tejaswi to take over, he is still very inexperienced in forging alliances. On the contrary, Tejaswi is known to have fierce temper and lacks the wily nature of his father. In the next state elections, RJD may just get routed quite miserably.
Secondly, if whatever that remains of the grand coalition (United RJD and Congress) withers in Bihar, it may just be impossible to reenact the model at the centre. It was years of experience of Lalu that was going to help forge complex associations at the national level. But his prison sentencing has dealt a serious blow to an anti BJP front. Lalu played the role like a conveyor of the grand alliance and his imprisonment will expose infightings amongst other leaders in the proposed alliance. If any anti BJP grand coalition was possible for 2019, Lalu was a formidable leader to vouch for it. His absence will put question marks over the future of such a possibility.
Thirdly, this judgment is just one of the many ills that are plaguing the Yadav family. Daughter Misa Bharti has been accused of making dubious property and already has been charged by the ED. Son Tejaswi Yadav has been under a scanner for the soil scam which allegedly happened when he was the deputy CM. This may lead to SP like situation where the old guard of the party may rebel against the first family. The entire Yadav family is caught in the midst of serious corruption charges and this may anger the rank and file of the party. A civil war in SP completely decimated the party in assembly elections and affected it’s chances in the polls. With Bihar elections a couple of years away, this taint may just result in an unexpected infighting of sorts and have a serious impact on the future.
Fourthly, the case may set a precedent for other politicians to mend their ways. Politicians such as Mamata Banerjee or Arvind Kejriwal will watch this space keenly as party members of both are involved in some form of corruption allegations. If the unfortunate verdict in 2G scam may have emboldened tainted leaders, this verdict may have given them those necessary jitters. Mamata Banarjee’s first reaction to the scam was met with silence. There is no doubt that the opposition will use Lalu’s conviction as some sort of an example to prove that opposition leaders are being targeted. But all the opposition leaders will certainly be more careful. They may also think twice before supporting Lalu now as it may distort their image.
Another aspect related to fodder scam may be the fast track special courts which the Modi Govt is planning to introduce. It’s important to note that the fodder scam verdict was delivered after a gap of nearly two decades. Even the judgment in 2G scam came after a considerable amount of time. This gives ample of opportunity to the powerful politicians to manipulate the system in their favor. Fodder case can be set as an example to necessitate fast tracking of court cases related to politicos. Undoubtedly, SP and Congress are opposed to it and I am sure even RJD will find them in the same bandwagon.
I remember I was still in school when Lalu was charged. This gap and time taken to deliver judgments especially with respect to politicians is seriously mind numbing. Nevertheless, Lalu now happens to be one of those few politicians who now are convicted on the charges of serious corruption. A man who made a circus of governance and political system in Bihar is now in the midst of being caged.
Bihar is one of the few states which exhibited coalition politics. And Lalu played an essential role in the complexity of it. His conviction has somewhere impacted this complex equation. Lalu Yadav after conviction in 2013 was down but still he managed to spring back into the state politics. Not every day is Sunday.
