Uddhav Thackeray had once mentioned how the Shiv Sena ministers in the state govt are carrying resignation letters in their pockets. It seemed a big joke as those mass resignations never reached the governor but just symbolised as an empty threat. Nitish Rane, the wily Congress leader and son of Narayan Rane even made a joke about it saying the Shiv Sena needs to be in the Guinness book of world records for issuing this threat the most number of times. Nevertheless, this bickering with the Sena marks the lowest ebb in BJP- Shiv Sena relations. Within the NDA fold, the relations have stood the test of time and Shiv Sena was one of its staunchest allies especially considering Hindutva.
When Pramod Mahajan was alive, one of the core achievements in his political career was keeping Shiv Sena at bay in Maharashtra. Numerically the Shiv Sena always had an upper hand those days but characteristically it was contained even though it played the role of a big brother. After Mahajan and particularly post Bal Thackeray era, the Sena BJP ties have fished through troubled waters. And the nose dive in their relationship was more precarious after an uneventful breakdown in the ties for 2014 assembly elections. First time in electoral history of the state, BJP was able to emerge as the single largest party and post elections, Shiv Sena supported reluctantly to forge an uneventful alliance. More perhaps to put it correctly, an alliance of mere convenience and suitableness was born. From that onset, this relationship has been nothing more than rocky. In the subsequent BMC elections, they fought separately and certainly against each other. But they formed an alliance uneventfully again post elections to retain the BMC.
In the advent of this deteriorating relation, those characteristic jibes by the Shiv Sena are continuing to be voiced and with every new jibe, the ties are reaching a new abysmal low.
Lately the Shiv Sena has adopted a love hate relationship with the BJP. The love is extending support behind the doors with the hate being spewed in the public domain.
The principle behind this behaviour is to salvage a lot of things at stake which the Sena is worried about. So publicly it has indulged in provocative statements but later on the turnaround shown was noticeable at least on two occasions. Firstly, it centered on the presidency. When the names were doing the rounds for presidential polls, the Sena took RSS Chief’s name which was undoubtedly a part of its ploy to embarrass the BJP publicly. After nomination of Ramnath Kovind took away the wind from the sails of the entire opposition, the Sena seemed to show its ever sulking attitude and termed it as Dalit vote bank politics. Nevertheless, it did a turnaround to proclaim its support thereafter to BJPs presidential nominee. The second instance was at the state level, where the Shiv Sena dared the govt to declare loan waiver for the farmers. Interestingly as Fadnavis did the same, the Sena seemingly had to support this initiative although it further tried to politicise by demanding list of 40 lakh farmers who’s loan will be completely waivered. Although Shiv Sena ministers said they were satisfied with loan waiver scheme, they again are now claiming that the BJP is taking the undue credit for agreeing to the waiver which was their brain child.
Perhaps this dichotomy in the attitude of Shiv Sena seems to be a well thought out strategy. It is portraying itself as a critic of the BJP govt yet it is extending support to enjoy the spoils of the power in the state govt led by the BJP. Their continuing in the govt is unquestionably meant to appease the Sena ministers. There is no doubt about the fact that a certain pull out from the state govt may result in massive defections from the Sena to the BJP. This may further weaken the party which had eroded considerably in recently held local body elections in the state. On the contrary that is the biggest fear Shiv Sena is harbouring which has put them in jeopardy.
BJP in recently contested municipal elections performed exceedingly well by romping home in eight of the ten corporations. Even in the lucrative cash rich BMC, they were just behind the Sena by a margin of two seats. Another important aspect is the fact that corporations like Solapur and Latur have completely submerged under the Modi wave. These regions were strongholds of the Congress party since decades.
In the advent of this background, if Shiv Sena pulls the plug and Fadnavis goes for a re election, the chances of BJP getting a simple majority on its own seems a very good prospect. The other power structure in the form of BMC is Sena’s most prized possession and it certainly cannot put this corporation at stake.
The Sena is facing the same problem which the BJD in Odisha is facing. The BJP in the form of national party is making inroads in both these states at their expense. The Sena and the BJD are increasingly getting frustrated to make moves which will further invite the public ire. In Odisha, Jay Panda was ill treated by the BJD who may join the BJP with other defections as fallout to an impressive performance by the BJP in recently concluded local body elections. The same pattern is visible in Maharashtra where the Sena is wary of the BJP growing at its space and expense.
The decision to privatise Air India was ridiculed by the Sena and foolishly compared with Kashmir. In the due process, it has always sided with parties like TMC and this has further made an acrimonious dent on the Sena BJP relationship.
The day Amit Shah met Sena chief, all seemed well and it gave the impression that the differences had been ironed out. However on the Sena 51st foundation day, Uddhav Thackeray dared the CM to call for re elections which was met with cheering from the audience. Perhaps the Sena seems to be eager to continue with this policy as the relations between the erstwhile saffron partners is plummeting to new low with time and every new issue.
Shiv Sena is trying to act like the way Left had acted in UPA first edition where it was meddling in policies whilst extending outside support to the govt. The Sena is a mini version of the same in Maharashtra where it’s trying to play its own role of a critical observer. The Sena think tank has to remember the fate of the Left parties in the subsequent elections. And looking at the way BJP has performed recently in Maharashtra, even this scenario can surely be replicated.
