Uttar Pradesh encompassing majority of the Hindi heartland has evolved in its role play with respect to Indian politics. From grandstanding Prime Ministers to seeing the rise of BJP during the Ayodhya movement, the state finally became a battleground of coalition slugfest throwing national parties out of reckoning and instilled regionalism in form of BSP and SP. A state controlling lot of stakes owing to its numerical magnum opus, it eventually has become a playground for an alternative plummeting pattern between Goonda and Ganda Raj. (The Yadavs and Mayawati).
As the Prime Minister addressed a rally in Lucknow on the occasion of Dusshera, he invariably sounded the poll bugle for 2017 elections in UP. An admixture of a crumbing citadel of the Yadav family and an increasing anti-incumbency together could be heard underlying echoes of Jai Shri Ram.
UP lately acquired an acrimonious shape for the BJP as Dadri lynching and Gaurakshaks created a media circus of intolerance. Studio bosses became ringmasters as the issue snowballed into a primary weapon for the opposition to aim at the central govt. Surgical strike has given BJPs prospective campaign a shot in the arm. UP was supposedly a BJP stronghold as sweeping radical changes on the ground pushed it down to a second rate power post Babri.
Its hold over the state was just like the way United Kingdom had over the world. World War 2 reduced its sway, making it an inhibited power clutching straws over big powers to adhere influence. BJP post Ayodhya conflagration assumed such significance. It had to join hands with Mayawati in an unpleasant coalition which somewhere affected its vote share and growth. As the party fortunes dwindled, 2014 and Amit Shah revived them, and a thundering performance was ceremoniously ensued.
The results reflected the party is back in the state winning 70 plus seats under the wings of a resurgent Modi wave which defied political pundits. The tectonic shift that was enabled in Lok Sabha had its epicentre here in Lucknow and the party would like to replicate the pattern in upcoming assembly polls. There are two ways how UP can be important centrally. First entourage Lok Sabha is already conquered. Assembly will assume greater significance in gathering those crucial numbers in to the Rajya Sabha that will propel the Govt to control both the houses.
A lot of bills or even amendments will find its roots here. However the magic seen in 2014 has seen much change on the ground coupled with the fact of assembly being a different ball game altogether. BJP had upped the ante of development and pushed polarisation under the carpets in 2014. However this strategy may reverse and polarisation may have to hobnob with the development cobbling up on much of the OBC pie and hoping onto split in Muslim votes.
Along with histrionics of issues, BJP needs to project a credible face for CM aspirant. This has benefited the party in Maharashtra or Assam and infighting visibly upset their apple cart in Delhi or Bihar where Sushil Modi didn’t muster a chance against the grand rainbow coalition. This sentiment however has another take since too many caste equations may just be difficult to throw a Chief Ministerial face in the ring. A consensus candidate after election results may serve as a better option.
UP is complex with caste religion and crime forming a cesspool of interconnected structure and BJP has to overwhelm it by playing its cards together or adding a cementing plank of development in to it when other players are fundamentally deeply rooted in the same abyss.
When Akhilesh Yadav took the front seat on his party bicycle, it seemed he had geared in a generational shift in otherwise feudal mind-set of party marked by socialist elements. As the party went into a sweeping mammoth of an election victory, that goodwill of a change quickly dissociated and lawlessness became the iron fist of the ruling dispensation. Although commercials projecting UP as a land of opportunities were aired under a midst few cosmetic changes, the groundswell was a jungle raj plate full of hooliganism, lack of progress, caste-ism, increasing crime against women and the handling of communal flashpoints(Read Muzafanagar riots).
The Yadav scion tried to rebrand his party’s image from being a cohort of patriarchal English hating gun trotting musclemen into a modernistic laptop distributing outlook retaining the foundations of socialist background. This was thwarted and a civil war of sorts has emerged out with Akhilesh fighting it out with an array of uncles with the general at helm being Shivpal Yadav. Adding to the conflict are men like a wily Amar Singh and a foot in mouth afflicted Azam Khan who all together have made SP like Afghanistan with multiple power centres actualized by warring warlords and chieftains.
Glaring differences inside the party has spilled over to streets with opposing camps sloganeering with poster war. This intrinsically adopted family fault lines has an impending challenge to regroup against a three way fight of a resurgent BJP, a lack of power infested prowling BSP and the anti-incumbency. The drive down by the CM to his uncle for a photo opportunity and show of affection has not really helped covering up power struggles inside and Mulayam Singh is finding it difficult to balance even as expelled corrupted ministers were re inducted and Akhilesh removed as party president. The biggest problem in lieu with the Samajwadi Party is its imposition of this so called first family of the state on the people like a fiefdom which resembles an autocratic monarchy than a democratic set up.
The third contender to the throne happens to be the BSP and Mayawati who dismisses the rise of BJP as just a flash in the pan and considers itself as natural successor of SP-BSP combine dominance in the state. Breaking the mould of coalitions and establishing a first full majority government, Mayawati invented a so called magical arithmetic of social engineering which comprised of two minority communities adhered to a dominant one wooed in one effective pack that set a precedent.
Mayawati borrows the same rustic authoritarianism that is prevalent in SP as a family dynasty. Her traits tend however towards a Middle East dictator stylized with erecting statues, grabbing lands (Taj corridor scam) and making officers wash her feet. Her tenure at the end was marked by increasing violence against women which finally led her to defeat in a charismatic campaigning by Akhilesh Yadav.
With flare of polarisation poured into the state, Mayawati is planning to repeat her dalit Muslim garnished by Brahmin formula and in this process has chalked serious plans to tap Muslim areas for votes. Mayawati has asked the party’s Muslim face, general secretary Naseemuddin Siddiqui, to take charge of party affairs in western UP with its large Muslim population. For work on the ground, she has also appointed Nassemuddin’s son Afzal Siddiqui as Muslim Bhaichara in charge to galvanise voters. Owing to a supposed discontent in the community after SP govts handling of the riots, Mayawati is hoping the split in Muslim votes will herald the major chunk to itself as other so called secular parties are in much disarray. Meanwhile Mayawati continues to hold tirade against govt by terming SP as a bastion for conversion of socialism into nepotism. However it’s a one face unipotently regional party and lacks the depth and generational transition to adapt to the changing winds of politics in Lucknow.
With three major players are out to fight for UP podium, like test playing nations they have gathered the necessary seriousness to be strong contenders. Congress party like an associate member is trying to finds its relevance. Not much has changed in its fortunes as the strategy continues to backfire. Having Prashant Kishor would not help when a lack luster Sheila Dixit is made the face of UP campaigning or the roadshows or staying in dalit homes is rebranded as Kisan yatra. The party may have electrified yet it’s not enough to enlighten grand old partys dwindling electoral prospects. Congress has to do a lot of weeding internally before it can again become viable nationally and hence Lucknow becomes key in gaining that impetus.
Just a couple of days back, exit polls conducted by India today is showing advantage BJP with estimated 170-183 seats as the single largest party. The SP/BSP is set to get each a 100 odd seats with the Congress salvaging may be not even a double digit. As seen in 2014, the BJP was expected to get much lower than the watershed majority and somewhere this advantageous surge can be replicated with a majority mandate they hold in the lower house of the parliament.
It seems the effect of surgical strikes in POK were two fold. The primary target was destruction of the camps. The secondary long distance benefit would be Lucknow. The political complexity of the state is diluting by election and smaller players like Rashtriya Lok dal like that bird Dodo is on the verge of political extinction. Interestingly these polls come immediately after PM Modi’s address at Lucknow and its impact may have interspersed with the strikes in POK to sum up an enhancing effect.
This election may numerically chart the future prospects of each party in the fray but every player holds too much of an impending fate in its standing.
A win for the BJP will embolden Modi Shah Combine to firmly entrench their hegemony in to national politics at least for a decade and will like a semi-final enable them to steer course for 2019.
A loss after Bihar and Delhi may push the BJP into a new found political crisis which will provide nourishment for anti BJP political pole to grow faster.
A win for SP will make Akhilesh the emperor of the Yadav clan and even make Mulayam Singh jump into the third front bandwagon as a PM aspirant in 2019 but a loss will accelerate the feud that has usurped the party. Victory for BSP will make Mayawati make more statues but on a serious note it may evoke prime ministerial aspirations in her too.
A drubbing will certainly weaken BSP into its oblivion. As far as Congress is concerned the question is whether it can score a double or a single digit. In an advent of former Rahul baba would be praised, in case of latter a scapegoat will be embraced.
