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MCD By-Election: Why AAP mustn’t Rejoice?

Surya Rao by Surya Rao
18 May 2016
in Analysis
MCD By-Election
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“MCD ruled by BJP-Cong. Outsider AAP wins max seats in MCD by-election. Thnx Delhi for reaffirming faith. Ab MCD election mein sabhi seat jeetni hai (Need to win in MCD election too),” Tweeted Kejriwal.

However, Aam Aadmi Party admitted that it was hoping for more in the MCD By-Poll Elections

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A short and brief analysis on MCD By-election:

 

MCD By-Election: The Results:

AAP-5. Congress-4. BJP-3, Ind-1

MCD By-Election: The Facts:

Vote Percentage:

BJP – 34.11% (Assembly Elections – 32.2%)

AAP – 29.9% (Assembly Elections – 54.2%)

Congress – 24.7% ((Assembly Elections – 9.7%)
Summary of Facts:

– Out of these 13 seats, 8 seats vacated by Councilors who became AAP MLAs.

– Out of 8 AAP could retain only 5. AAP was leading in 12 of these 13 wards during the Assembly elections.

– AAP’s voting percentage in Delhi Assembly Elections where it won 57 out of 60 seats was 54.2%.

– In these 13 Municipal Wards AAP’s voting percentage reduced to only 29.9%. Which is a huge drop of almost 45% in its own vote share as compared to it’s Assembly elections and a huge dip of 25% from overall votes.

– Congress, which registered a vote share of only 9.7% in the Assembly elections, has registered a voting percentage of 24.87%.

– Effectively meaning AAP’s loss taken away by Congress in a major way.

– BJP’s vote share in Assembly elections was 32.2%, and now it has registered a vote share of 34.11%. Effectively registering an increase in 6% in its vote share and an overall of 2% of total votes.

– BJP came 2nd in 8 seats, and 3rd in 2 seats. Three of the 8 seats in which it came 2nd in tight finishes with AAP.

– In spite being in complete & absolute majority in the Delhi Assembly, AAP came 2nd in 3 seats and 3rd in 5 seats. Please note with a BIG BOLD (3rd in 5 seats).Which is almost 38% of the seats which went for polls, in which AAP was leading in 12 of the 13 during Assembly elections.

MCD By-Election: The Analysis
– No other Political party in Independent India has registered such a massive dip in its popularity within just 2 years of being elected, with a dip of almost 50% of its own vote share.

– Congress & AAP are 2 sides of the same coin and seem to be engaged in a see-saw battle. One seems to be helping the other. One seems to be eating the other’s vote share in each election.

– BJP Voter base seems to remain intact in each and every election concerning Delhi. Only this time it has registered an increase in 6% in it’s own vote share. These 6% are disenchanted AAP Voters.

MCD By-Election: The Summary

Unless a certain Kejriwal sees the people voting for MCD as from Mars and the people who voted in the Delhi Assembly being from Jupiter, I really don’t understand how can he gloat and tweet on the results. I guess being unreasonable is a virtue nowadays.

http://zeenews.india.com/news/india/mcd-bypolls-results-aap-bagged-maximum-seats-but-bjp-got-highest-vote-share-know-details_1885963.html

Tags: AAPBJPCongress
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