Mumbai’s paper tigers are at it again. In their editorial Saamna, the Shiv Sena has issued a veiled threat to its ally the Bhartiya Janata Party. It has stated that those who try to break the Sena’s hegemony of the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation end up digging their own grave. These words would have borne some truth and would have been taken seriously if Balasaheb were alive today, but not anymore.
The Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation, India’s richest municipal corporation, is made up of the country’s financial capital and its suburbs. For the last twenty years, the Sena-BJP combine have controlled this body. Shiv Sena has always been the senior player in this partnership. But of late, both allies have shared an increasingly frosty relationship.
The threat issued by Shiv Sena comes after indications from the BJP camp of going to BMC elections solo this time.
The Shiv Sena, despite attempts to put up a brave face, is not fooling anybody. Being the primary incumbent, the fact of the matter is that they have everything to lose. Traditionally, the arrangement the Sena had with the BJP was simple: junior partner at the centre and senior partner in the state. But two years ago, the Modi-Shah duo reduced the Sena to playing second fiddle at the state level too. Ever since, the BJP has consistently performed better than the Sena in various elections that both sides contested separately. There is nothing to suggest that this phenomenon will not repeat itself in the BMC elections.
What the Sena really fears is the splitting of votes. Even if the BJP is unable to win the elections on its own, it is likely to improve its tally. If the Shiv Sena is forced to go solo, it is almost certain that they would never win this election. No doubt it is a prestige issue for the party considering it has been in the driver’s seat for twenty years. Nobody likes to lose a bastion. But instead of dealing with these fears in a deft manner, the Sena has plunged into a paranoia which is driving the party further away from its objectives. What is the need to be foolhardy when one is vulnerable?
The BJP smells opportunity. Highly popular governments both at the central and state levels have propelled the party on an upward curve. Clever politicking and perfectly timed moves have weakened the Sena considerably. By going solo, the BJP could achieve one of two things. Either it could win the elections. Or it could increase its tally and deny the Sena a victory. Both options are favourable to the party.
The BJP winning the elections is not a scenario that can be discounted. At the grassroots in Maharashtra, a clear shift towards the BJP is underway. It is so palpable that the party managed to win every four-cornered electoral battle in the last two years. Some may be of the opinion that it is favourable for the BJP to ally with the Sena instead of squandering a sure shot victory just to bring the Sena down. But it is entirely possible that many within the BJP see it quite differently. The Shiv Sena has been the worst ally any party can have, and perhaps the BJP might want to cut it to size and put it in its place. Moreover, if the BJP wants to be the go-to party for those who vote based on right-wing ideology, it is necessary to keep pushing the Sena into a corner.
The Shiv Sena has been unnecessarily critical of the BJP ever since it was relegated to second place in the state. Their criticism over demonetization, India’s Pakistan policy and just about every decision that the current dispensation has made, has been incessant. Recently, the party stated that the Modi government, of which they are a part themselves, is the worst government India has had in ten thousand years. It is rather obvious that Uddhav Thackeray is bitter about what the Modi-Shah duo reduced him to. He has nobody but himself to blame. His every move reeks of political incompetence.
It is quite ironic that the Shiv Sena speaks of the BJP digging its own grave if the latter went solo in the BMC elections. Ever since the party became a victim of dynastic politics, its own grave has been in the making. This is an organisation with several feathers in its cap: putting an end to communists and later the Islamic underworld, both of whom held erstwhile Bombay to ransom. But under Uddhav Thackeray, it has been devoid of ideology. Senseless politicking has eroded its foundations. Balasaheb would never have allowed this to happen. Irrespective of how the BMC elections play out, the party’s threats become emptier as it recedes into oblivion.
